The Netherlands: pre-race 2022

Flares, pigeons, and a very tight battle for qualification. 

In Q1 we said goodbye to two chaps whose team mates reached the top 10: Ricciardo and Vettel. Bottas also left at this stage, as did Magnussen and Latifi.

Albon’s first Q2 run was buggered by some twonk who had brought in a flare and thrown it onto the track, bringing out a brief red flag. Flares were always stupid, but when they interfere with racing it’s unacceptable. Apparently the chimpanzee in question was made to leave the premises, and rightly so.

After all that Albon ended up slowest in Q2, but as his car is great in a straight line and less so in the twisty bits this was no surprise. Gasly was the fastest eliminated driver, ahead of Ocon, Alonso, and Zhou Guanyu.

It was all looking close and competitive going into the final section. And so it proved. Verstappen did get pole, two-hundredths ahead of Leclerc and less than a tenth ahead of Sainz. The Mercedes might have done better (Hamilton starts 4^th and Russell 6^th) but Perez (5^th) crashed on his last lap and the yellow flag compromised their runs.

Norris ended up 7^th, ahead of Schumacher, with Tsunoda and Stroll on row five. Stroll was very unlucky as he’d performed well but a reliability failure meant he could not compete in qualifying.

 

No penalties this weekend, and the race is likely to be overcast and dry. Assessing passing is difficult as it was too hard last year but this time around the DRS is extended and regulations may help (they have almost everywhere except France). Also, both a one and two stop strategy is viable although two stops and avoiding the hard tyre is the way most will want to go.

 
Early betting thoughts:
Hamilton podium
Sainz win, each way
Safety Car
Low number of classified finishers

Hamilton is 1.75 for a podium. He starts 4^th but will have stuff competition with Verstappen close to nailed on for  atop 3 spot, both Ferraris looking good, and Russell intent on improving from his 6^th. Might still be worth backing.

Sainz starts 3^rd and was within a tenth of Verstappen, so in clear air may be able to make strategic cunning work (although he is with Ferrari so…). Each way for the win he’s 15 which is longer than I’d expected. His recent results have been good and last time out he drove well to keep the gaining Russell behind him (aided by Russell losing a small amount of time due to an error, but still good composure).

The safety car is 1.36 to make an appearance. If there’s any sort of on-track embuggerance this is near certain as the circuit isn’t the best for getting cars off quickly and while a VSC is possible the problem is the circuit is short so throwing out a full safety car remains probable. Short odds, probably end up green.

Last year there were two DNFs. Hard passing makes the start critical and the track is not especially forgiving. Under 16.5 is 2.2. Certainly possible but the tight odds given last year is perhaps less appealing than anticipated.

 

And so to the traditional perusing of the markets on the hunt for value.

Hamilton win, 8
Sainz podium, 2.2
Sainz beat Leclerc, 2.75
Russell beat Perez, 1.8

Could Hamilton have been on for pole? It was not impossible but we will never know. The Mercedes is looking much more at home in the Netherlands than it was in Belgium, however and the team are less strategically inept than Ferrari. Verstappen and Red Bull were dominant last time out but he should not have such a pace advantage here. If there’s a safety car then the timing could dictate how things fall. It’s hard to say if 8 is good value or not, but it’s worth considering, especially each way.

Sainz starts 3^rd, has been driving well, and was within a tenth of Verstappen on pace. He’s also outscored his team mate at the most recent races and seems less afflicted with the Ferrari curse (perhaps aided by his willingness to kick back against ‘inventing’ strategy calls). But 2.2 for a podium given the possibility of safety car interference, first lap woe, and strategic failings is less appealing than the 15 each way for the win, I think. 

Speaking of beating his team mate, Sainz is 2.75 to achieve that. Far from guaranteed, but you have to go back four races to Austria in which he had a reliability DNF and Leclerc won (otherwise that result would have been reversed). Otherwise you have to go back to Miami (discounting the Azerbaijan double DNF) for the last time Leclerc beat Sainz, which is weird when you think about it. Maybe this bet is better value than I’d thought.

Perez has not looked at home this weekend, often slowest of the top 6 and while he did end up ahead of Russell on track I think the Briton would have had him had the Mexican’s spin not prevented him putting in a representative time at the end. But, as ever, passing is hard. 1.8 is probably decent odds.

 

So, nothing stand out fantastic but a lot of things that are fairly interesting, from Sainz winning each way or beating his team mate, to Hamilton winning and Russell beating Perez.

I like the two win bets a lot but picking which to back is tricky as a tricky thing. I’ve decided to go for Hamilton. At races where both cars are competitive Mercedes tend to do better. Incidentally, 10 on Hamilton and 19 on Sainz are backable on Betfair if you want to go for the outright.

So, one tip, backing Hamilton to win each way at 8.5 (with boost).

 

Morris Dancer