F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests
Bit of a whopper of an article, but it didn’t make sense to
write two for the Bahrain
tests, as they were so close together.
Many of the rule changes are helpfully outlined here: http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/22058/9077826/gearing-up-for-2014-the-rule-changes-uncovered-and-explained-part-one
This is one more reason why reliability is to critical.
Losing a whole power unit (exceeding the 5 per season limit) means starting the
next race from the pit lane. Losing a component, such as the turbo, means a 10
place grid penalty.
On day one of the first test in Bahrain
it appeared the Renault/Red Bull woe might continue. However, both Red Bull and
Toro Rosso got in good running on the second day. Any remaining issues seem
more to do with the car rather than the power unit.
It’s been suggested the Renault requires significantly more
cooling than rival engines, but apparently there are upsides. If the horsepower
rumours were true (Mercedes being mighty and Ferrari better than Renault by a
smaller margin) then any plus side would seem to be efficiency.
That sounds tedious but fuel tanks have shrunk from about
150kg to 100kg, and there’s a maximum fuel flow rate of 100kg/hour (a race is
typically just under two hours). A more efficient engine would be a great
advantage.
From the BBC livefeed, on
day three:
“They [Renault engines] are not being able to run the full
mapping and are about 100-150bhp down on the Mercedes and Ferrari.”
So, that would make it hard, it would seem, for
Renault-powered cars to do well in qualifying. 100-150bhp is a bloody enormous
deficit. But, efficiency will be worth a lot come race day. With that in mind,
my early thinking (NB I have not bet on this and it is not a tip) for Australia
is a Mercedes for pole, and Vettel for the win. However, Ferrari must not be
discounted. They also have solid reliability and two fantastic drivers.
Later addition: given the continuing and chronic reliability
issues that Red Bull have faced I would not back them for the win. Ferrari may
be another matter, and there’s an off-chance the very reliable Williams could
spring a surprise.
Alonso said that Australia
would be hard to bet on: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26276837
Day three also saw Red Bull suspend running after finding a
mechanical fault. This turned out to be a gearbox failure. The gearboxes, as
with just about everything else, are more complicated this year, so expect more
of these during the season. Lotus (also powered by Renault) had a gearbox
problem on Friday as well.
After the second test, my vague thinking of Australia
bets was as follows:
Hamilton pole
[he was better than Rosberg there last year]
Marussia points
Bottas points
The race in Bahrain
could be more down to efficiency than pace:
“Q: So if you don’t know where the car is, how about the
driver - what will be the biggest challenge for a driver this season?
Nico Rosberg: All the new systems. The whole hybrid power - there is a lot complications in that. Then coming to terms with the fuel saving to make it to the chequered flag. Bahrain, for example, will be a tough one. When I did the race distance in the afternoon it was difficult to make it with the one hundred litres we are allowed. That will be an issue for all of us.”
Nico Rosberg: All the new systems. The whole hybrid power - there is a lot complications in that. Then coming to terms with the fuel saving to make it to the chequered flag. Bahrain, for example, will be a tough one. When I did the race distance in the afternoon it was difficult to make it with the one hundred litres we are allowed. That will be an issue for all of us.”
Let us not forget the tyres:
“The performance differences in Bahrain
between tyre compounds were approximately as follows: the supersoft around 0.7s
per lap faster than the soft; the soft around 1.2s per lap quicker than the
medium; and the medium is around 1.3s per lap quicker than the hard.”
During the third test engine homologation was due to occur.
This means you can’t fiddle with it for performance reasons, but can on the
grounds of safety and reliability. Renault lodged an application for an
extension. This has since been denied (both the making of the application and,
if it was made, the application request itself).
The third day of the third test was abysmal for Red Bull.
Vettel got in four corners. His car didn’t manage the installation lap, and
when he tried to go out later it didn’t even reach the end of the pit lane.
It’s interesting that gearboxes appeared to be breaking
left, right and centre in the final test. Mercedes suffered numerous failures.
Williams, on the very final day, suffered their first and only on-track
reliability failure (engine, due to high mileage). I do wonder if the Williams
could be a dark horse. Probably not on for a win, but top 6 is perhaps
possible.
There are three aspects to F1 cars (and especially their
engines/power trains):
Pace, reliability, efficiency.
Pace, reliability, efficiency.
Pace is impossible to truly read from testing. Fuel, tyres,
track conditions, qualifying simulations and race runs all conspire to make it
very hard to discern any kind of performance advantage. Rumour has it Mercedes
is fastest, then Ferrari, then Renault. That will help in qualifying, but in
the race efficiency will be as important and perhaps more so.
Reliability is easier. All the cars have weaknesses.
Mercedes and Ferrari seem to be alright, Renault seem to be behind by a
distance. Expect multiple reliability failures in Australia,
something we have not seen regularly for many seasons (discounting tyres, which
teams are not responsible for).
Efficiency is also very hard to judge from testing. The fuel
tanks have been reduced (to 100kg, I think) and fuel-flow limited to 100kg/hour
(NB teams can’t run constantly at that rate or they’ll run out of fuel within
50-60% of a race distance). Going slow conserves fuel but could cost tyre
temperature. Efficient engines will be very useful.
The teams doing worst than expected are Red Bull and Lotus.
Both have had relatively limited testing due to numerous failures. By contrast,
Force India and
(even more so) Williams are perhaps exceeding expectations. The Williams might
be the most reliable car there is, and in a season where parts could fail often
that might get them many, many points.
That said, Hamilton
seems to believe the Red Bull is a quick car, and I read (during many hours of checking
the BBC livefeed of testing) that the Red
Bull passed a McLaren going around a high speed corner, suggesting relatively
superior downforce. Of course, a fast car that explodes a lot will not win a
title (cf McLaren with Raikkonen or McLaren in 2012) but it could win races,
and with improvements to reliability could yet make up lost ground, assuming it
has any to make up after the start of the season.
Before testing began, based on rumour, I backed Magnussen at
51 and Rosberg at 17 with Ladbrokes and 23 or so with Betfair (tiny stakes).
Reasonably content with those, and hedged my Betfair Rosberg bet the other day
at 8. I do think Mercedes (team and engine) have the edge right now.
Ferrari are interesting. They’ve largely flown under the
radar, and seem to be doing alright (although my spies tell me they’re down on
power compared to Mercedes). They have a very strong driver line-up and could
be Mercedes’ biggest challengers. It’ll also be intriguing to see how Magnussen
(who appears to have impressed during testing) can do, and likewise the Force
India pairing of Hulkenberg and Perez.
Not sure if I’ll offer a qualifying tip for Australia.
I will write a pre-qualifying piece, though.
On that note, the qualifying rules have been tweaked:
Basically, Q2 tyres will be used to start the race. That
way, nobody ducks Q3 or trundles around like Postman Pat (and his black and
white cat) to start on lovely fresh rubber.
I’m really looking forward to the first race. It’s only
covered on radio by the BBC, alas, but there
we are. Practice in Australia
starts on 14 March.
Morris Dancer
Morris - many thanks for the above, which I haven't yet read in detail .... but I certainly will.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile here is the link to Sporting's first stab at F1 Season's Points which itself makes interesting reading. I'd be interested to know where you agree or disagree and how strongly. I have a few thoughts but I'll keep these to myself for now so as not to influence you :
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.4561961/formula-1-2014-drivers-ordinary-season-points
500 points is the maximum this season (because of the double points nonsense in Abu Dhabi). A third at every race would be worth 300 points, and sixth would equal 160 (just putting this up as a reminder for myself whilst I peruse the list).
ReplyDeleteUsually little in the way of change will happen during the initial fly-away segment of the season (first 4 races) for logistical reasons, which is also worth considering.
As usual, I don't do spread bets so take anything I write with a pinch of salt.
Bottas at 83 (buying) would be something I'd consider. Consensus appears to be that the Williams is the most reliable car and perhaps the second fastest. Hulkenberg at 116 *might* be a buy. He has two potential pitfalls: he's tall, and will lose about 0.3s per lap because the weight limit is wrong, and the Force India isn't as fast as the Mercedes, Williams and maybe Ferrari/McLaren.
Hmm. Buying Perez at 78 may be better value than Hulkenberg. I rate the German more highly as a driver, but Perez (I think) is shorter and there's a substantial gap (nearly 40 points).
Bit baffled that Grosjean and Maldonado have identical numbers. I'd be inclined to sell Maldonado at 66.
What're your thoughts?
As someone who doesn't partake in spread-betting, I am most grateful for your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteJust to correct your opening comment - because the "double points" controversy rumbles on, for the purposes of this particular betting market Sporting have stipulated that all 19 Grand Prix will carry the same points tally, starting with 25 points for the winner - according the maximum tally is 475 points (19 x 25), i.e. the same as last season.
My overriding view is that Sporting have been far, far too mean as regards Red Bull in general and Vettel in particular. His mid point spread is only 190 points, less than HALF his total of 397 achieved last year. He is far and away the best driver and even allowing for it taking half a dozen GPs to get his car really up to speed, I can't see him scoring fewer than 250 points for the season - so he's an outstanding BUY imho. Similarly Ricciardo, as Webber's replacement is on offer at a mid-point spread of 113 points, compared with his predecessor's score last season of 199 points ..... again far too low in my view. Another outstanding BUY opportunity has to be Raikkonen taking over Massa's seat in the Ferrari - he is offered at 146 points, equivalent to an average of 7.3 points per GP. I expect him to finish close to his team mate at around the 200 point mark. Finally on the buy side of the equation, Grosjean looks to be rated too lowly on 72 points, compared with his score of 132 in 2013. Despite Lotus' current problems, I'll be surprised if he fails to achieve at least 100 points.
On the other side of the coin, I consider Sporting have been too generous in assessing the prospects of several of the less experienced drivers. In particular I would be an enthusiastic seller of Magnussen at 123 points, and unlike you of Bottas at 75 points. I agree with you however as regards Maldonado, who I would be keen to sell at 72 points.
Based on my strength of conviction, I would stake my ideas above as follows:
Vettel BUY @ 190 at £3 per point
Ricciardo BUY @ 113 at £2 per point
Raikkonen BUY @ 146 at £2 per point
Grosjean BUY @ 72 at £1.50 per point
Magnussen SELL @ 123 at £2 per point
Bottas SELL @ 75 at £1.50 per point
Maldonado SELL at 72 points at £1.50 per point
I am targeting a hypothetical combined profit of £300 from the above bets, but I would opt to limit my losses to £200 by closing all my outstanding positions should my running losses exceed this figure during the season. It will be interesting to see how I fare and I'll try to remember to update my positions from time to time. For the purposes of calculating my P&L, I reserve the right to take Spreadex's equivalent spreads which I expect to appear over the next couple of days should these prove more attractive than Sporting's.
Wish me luck!
Good luck, Mr. Putney.
ReplyDeleteI must say I disagree with most of your calls. Obviously it's your money, and I hope you succeed (except where your success would necessarily mean bets of mine failing).
The car matters more than the driver. Vettel may be the best driver, but that is open to dispute. If his car is a crock, being the best driver means little.
Last year he got an unprecedented 9 consecutive victories. That's deeply unlikely to recur. The car appears to be decent on pace at fast corners but markedly down on power on straights.
Ricciardo's hard to call. He's only driven for HRT and Toro Rosso. He appears competent, but I'd be surprised if he troubles Vettel. I wouldn't touch him either way.
I rate Raikkonen highly... that *might* be value. His problem is that the Ferrari appears to be behind a few Mercedes-powered teams and even if/when the car's on form he'll face serious competition from Alonso.
I agree with you that Grosjean and Maldonado should not have the same numbers. I'd feel more comfortable betting against Maldonado than for Grosjean, as the Lotus looks a bit flaky.
McLaren seem to have reasonable, perhaps good, pace. Magnussen has generally impressed in testing and rumour had it Button wanted to keep Perez because he could handle the Mexican (and would struggle against Magnussen). I wouldn't bet against the Dane.
We disagree on Bottas. I think he's potentially an impressive driver, he had a few good moments last year in a dog of car, and this year the Williams looks pretty fast and very (relatively) reliable. If it is the most reliable car they could pick up a stack of points as others just break down.
Interesting views Morris. I should make it clear that the bets I set out in my last post are purely hypothetical - I learnt a long time ago that just like backing every horse in a race, one is bound to lose if one tries to cover too many drivers in a contest such as this - you inevitably get killed by the spread.
ReplyDeleteMy objective was simply to highlight those instances where particular drivers were either under or over rated in my view.
If you were to ask me to limit myself to just one bet, then as my staking suggested I would have to go for buying Vettel at a mid-spread of 190 points.
Of course he won't repeat his incredible feat of winning nine GPs in succession, but neither in my view will he collect fewer than half the points he accumulated last year. I suggested a tally of around 250 points (compared with 397 points) which would represent a profit of 60 points on his current spread price, and incidentally almost certainly result in his becoming F1 World Champion once again.
We shall see!
Vettel - Season's Points Update
ReplyDeleteClearly the body of opinion is against me - since Sporting's opening show yesterday, Vettel's spread has slipped by 9 points from 185-195 to 176-186. That's good enough for me and I've bought him at 186 for £2 a point.
Is that the only spread bet you've made/will make?
ReplyDeleteConsidering the current state of Red Bull during testing I wouldn't be buying Vettel (or any Renault driver) at anything like 150+ points.
ReplyDeleteRemember that to score points you need to firstly finish races and I really can't see Red Bull or any renault team doing that often in he first 4 races....
Mr. Eek, good to see you here. There's also the ERS. If that's lost then a team will very rapidly go backwards, so finishing the race without it won't be like losing KERS last year. The ERS is worth perhaps seconds a lap.
ReplyDeleteBrave of you both to write off Red Bull's and Vettel's chances before the season has even started after four totally dominant seasons as World Champs! Believe me, were they up among the leaders at this stage you'd have to pay another 100 points on the spread.
ReplyDeleteYes Morris, this is my only spread bet and the only one I am contemplating at least for now, tempting though Raikkonen is as a buy at 148 points ... I see him as top three material with Ferrari.
You may want to read today's telegraph and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/motorsport/formulaone/10680290/Red-Bull-chief-Christian-Horner-plays-down-panic-ahead-of-F1-season-saying-We-havent-become-idiots-overnight.html
DeleteEspecially
But will Red Bull, with their struggling Renault power unit, even manage to make it out of the first round of qualifying, usually reserved for the minnows of Formula One?
"To be honest with you, we have no real idea. We know we don't have the pace to challenge the Mercedes teams at the moment, but it's very much a case of see where we are in Melbourne. Then we know the scale and magnitude of what we have to climb.
"We don't even know our starting point at the moment, so it's impossible to make predictions sitting here in Milton Keynes a week prior to the first race. But I have every confidence in the team, and in Renault, that we can make it. Our target is (to catch up) as soon as possible."
Given comments like that I really wouldn't be betting on any Renault team at the moment let alone red bull.
Post Script Re: Vettel's Prospects
ReplyDeleteIt seems that fixed odds bettors are altogether a cannier lot - they have Vettel as 2nd favourite in the market at best odds of 7/2, behind Hamilton at best odds of 5/2 and well ahead of 3rd favourite Rosberg at best odds of 6/1.
Last season, Alonso as runner up to Vettel scored 242 points. A similar outcome in 2014 would produce a profit on my spread bet of £112 .... that would do me very nicely.
As regards Kimi Raikkonen's prospects - last year he accumulated 183 points driving for slow-paying Lotus. I must say he looks cracking value this time around on offer at 148 points with Ferrari and I'm sorely tempted to back him. Sorry Morris, but I simply don't follow your point as regards whether or not he overcomes Alonso ..... in absolute points terms the Spaniard is just another driver.
Mr. Putney, the car matters more than the driver. Red Bull's pace is uncertain (some reckon if it worked it'd be fast, others seem less sure), its reliability is poor and its engine is troubled. It's not Vettel I doubt, it's his car.
ReplyDeleteI think your bet on Raikkonen is likelier to come off.
No need to apologise, incidentally. Nothing wrong with a legitimately different opinion, and we'll soon have an indication of how the first part of the season will go.
An interesting link-up between Williams and Martini - is this the influence of Ms Williams at the helm showing through I wonder? Certainly the team suddenly looks born again and heading for much better things after several years in the doldrums.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope so anyway.
Pre-season podcast is up here (only up for a few more days):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/cff1
Interestingly James Allen and Alan McNish (new radio co-commentator) disagree about whether or not Red Bull will recover in time to be genuine title contenders.
Thanks Morris for putting up that BBC podcast which was very instructive, provided one was able to put up with the incessant childish giggling by La Gow.
ReplyDeleteCertainly, I was left concerned by the extent of the huge challenges faced by Vettel, at least during the evident catch-up process required in the early part of the season. My hope has to be that he can collect a modest tally of say 25-30 points over the first 4-5 races and really start to compete for podiums thereafter.
I'm feeling much more confident however about my £2 per point buy of Raikkonen at 148. The two BBC guys agreed that along with his Ferrari team mate, these are probably among the smartest of the F1 drivers and best equipped therefore to deal with all the new aspects of managing the new and complex requirements of successfully completing a GP.
Spreadex belatedly issued their Drivers' spreads earlier today - as usual they were two days or more behind Sporting - and I was initially excited to see their prices for both my picks well ahead of those on offer from Sporting. Then I realised that, foolishly in my view, they have provided for a double points count in the final GP, instead of, like Sporting has done, treating all 20 races equally with 101 points up for grabs in each.
I won't be entering into any more spread bets - my policy as things stand would be to close both my positions were I to show a running profit or loss of £150 on these taken together. Both drivers have to participate in at least 8 GPs for their bets to stand.
It's a somewhat daunting thought that in order to break even I need my two picks to accumulate at least 334 points (186 +148 points) for the season - that's an average of 17.6 points per GP, that's equivalent to finishing 4th and 7th or 5th and 6th in each race. That said, there's a total of 817 points on offer for 1st and 2nd places, or 43 points for each race.
Provided this pairing remain fit, I'm hopeful that taken together they can provide me with a profit.
Fingers crossed!
McNish is a great addition to the BBC team. When he made guest appearances last year he was probably the best co-commentator (Sam Bird of Mercedes was also very good, but is some way off retirement).
ReplyDeleteAlonso and Raikkonen are both clever chaps. The question is whether their cars will be up to the task.
The biggest question mark as a whole hangs over the efficiency question. We have a vague idea of reliability and a reasonable one of pace but very little about efficiency. That's critical.
Yes indeed, I was amazed to learn that the cars need to be at least 30% more fuel efficient simply to ensure that they have enough fuel to get them to the chequered flag - that sounds like an enormous ask leaving aside all the other new tasks the drivers face. As the BBC duo pointed out, at least this year they will be able to hear the instructions from their pit.
ReplyDelete*cough*
ReplyDeleteThe article above does say the fuel tank's cut from 150kg to 100kg...
Weirdly, I think I'll feel more confident about the first qualifying session than the first race. Although, if rain's about then it'll be even harder to tell.
I can't believe the betting market's odds for the likely number of classified finishers in this weekend's Australian GP:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/number-of-classified-drivers
In essence these odds suggest that only around half the 22 Driver field is likely to stay the course. If this is indicative of the sort of attrition rate we are likely to see in the forthcoming F1, or even for the first few races, then much of the fun and excitement of the actual racing will be missing.
One bet I was hoping to consider seriously was classified finishers being few, but the odds aren't worth it.
ReplyDeleteIt depends just how high the attrition is, and for high long. I have no issue with 6-7 retirements a race being common. But if it's 10-15, that's excessive.
On that note, I've backed Williams to top score (Ladbrokes) at 5.5. They're probably second fastest, the Ferraris are not only likely slower but thirstier and Williams has the best reliability by some distance.