Posts

Showing posts from June, 2021

Styria: post-race analysis 2021

A quintet of bets were made, and how many came off? Two. Two failed due to misfortune (first lap puncture causing DNF, and a separate reliability failing causing another DNF). Much as I had great luck last year, this year it’s been very much against me. But the multi-bet approach did at least reduce the redness to a marginal degree. My Vettel call, however, was plain wrong. Aston Martin did much as others did, and I’d thought they might slap on the hards and go long. Off the line it was formation flying at the sharp end. Perez briefly got past Norris, who reclaimed the place (but wasn’t able to keep it, ultimately. Further back Gasly suffered the Curse of Morris Dancer and got tagged by Leclerc, puncturing his rear tyre. The Frenchman managed to limp back to the pits but nevertheless had to retire. Meanwhile the top two were pulling away from the field, as they are wont to do. Russell was doing splendidly, around 7 th , and then woe befell him and a couple of vain pit stop attempts

Styria: pre-race 2021

Qualifying was nice and tight. Bottas gets a 3 place grid penalty for the slightly embarrassing offence of spinning in the pit lane during practice. It’s also possible that Tsunoda will get a penalty for impeding the Finn during a hot lap in Q3. The very short lap made the margins tighter than ever and in the first part of qualifying just three-hundredths separated Ricciardo, who escaped, and Latifi, who did not. A surprising departure was Ocon, and Raikkonen also failed to progress, with Schumacher and Mazepin bringing up the rear. Some late lap time deletions for exceeding track limits didn’t actually affect who got tossed aside but did shuffle the order of places 11-15 somewhat. Russell starts 11 th , with Sainz and Ricciardo behind him. After some good form the Aussie once again looks a long way off his British team mate. Vettel was down to 14 th due to losing a faster time, with Giovinazzi the slowest man in the second session. So far Verstappen had been looking tasty, but

Styria: pre-qualifying 2021

Styria’s lovely to look at, but will it finally break my season-long betting curse? We shall see. After off-track whining from unknown teams (Mercedes), pit stops will be slowed down. This is nonsense. The complaints about Red Bull’s flexi-wing were a bit silly but also in line with similar complaints over double diffusers, the FRIC system, and the fancy tyre warm up thing Mercedes had last year. But pit stops have been the same for everyone for years, and everybody was cool with it. But now someone who can only be described as Toto Wolff is upset because Red Bull are better at pit stops than Mercedes, so the Silver Arrows whined about it and now the pit stops will be slowed to try and stop those pesky Red Bull types from doing better. It’s a bit pathetic. In first practice Verstappen was quickest, a quarter of a second ahead of Gasly. Hamilton and Bottas were close to one another but two-tenths off the Frenchman, with Tsunoda right behind. Alonso, Ocon, Stroll, Giovinazzi, and Lec

France: post-race analysis 2021

Well, I feared It would be boring. In the event, the race was a slow burn with a nail-biting finish. Far better than I’d expected (although Murphy’s Law continues to apply to my betting this season. Sainz was nowhere but the Aston Martin bet I decided against came off). From the line Verstappen held the lead only to lock up in the second corner and allow Hamilton to seize the lead. That order remained at the sharp end, with small gaps. In the initial pit stops, Bottas went first (of the frontrunners), but Verstappen was next and he was close enough to be able to pass his title rival (just barely) by undercutting. Perez, meanwhile, stayed long on his mediums, the Aston Martins (having started on hards) doing likewise. The undercut also worked very well for both McLarens, Norris staying out longer than Ricciardo. Both looked far sharper in the race than the Ferraris, whose pace fell off a cliff (possibly due to chewing up tyres or the recent tyre pressure regulation changes). Sainz w

France: pre-race 2021

Red flags are becoming something of a bad habit in qualifying. There were two this time, both in the first session. Tsunoda’s put him out of Q1, and Schumacher’s, ironically, came after he’d made it to Q2 for the first time. However, Schumacher’s also meant that Stroll was unable to improve (he had a lap deleted for exceeding track limits) and he starts 19 th . Also eliminated were Mazepin and Raikkonen, with Latifi out by two-thousandths (beaten by his team mate. As already mentioned Schumacher was ‘in’ the second part of qualifying but with three wheels on his wagon he didn’t set a lap time. Interestingly, both midfielder and frontrunners put on the medium tyre (not too much slower than the soft and reckoned to be much better for the race). Ocon, Vettel, Giovinazzi, and Russell exited at this stage. And so the scene was set for another titanic battle for pole. Verstappen had looked good all weekend but could Mercedes snatch the top slot for themselves? No. They got close, and Ham

France: pre-qualifying 2021

We’re off to France, whose Grand Prix circuit isn’t stellar. Or wasn’t last time. We shall see how it goes in 2021. The running order in first practice had Bottas top (he’s been fastest in this session a lot this year, I regret not taking the 3.25 on him doing it again), a third of a second ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen was next, a tenth off his rival which isn’t too bad if reflective of real pace. Perez followed but was three-tenths behind his team mate and just a tenth ahead of Ocon. Ricciardo, Alonso, Gasly, Norris, and Tsunoda rounded out the top 10. Second practice was interesting, with Verstappen edging Bottas by a whole eight-thousandths of a second, and Hamilton a quarter of a second back. Alonso was fourth, two-tenths off, followed by Leclerc, Ocon, Gasly, Sainz, Raikkonen, and Norris. (Perez was 12 th ). At this stage it’s looking nice and tight at the top, with the midfield typically competitive as well. So qualifying may be tricky to predict but entertaining. Worth no

Azerbaijan: post-race analysis 2021

As a neutral, that was dramatically exciting. From a betting perspective, a long odds bet failed because of a large slice of bad luck, which is aggravating. (Not the first time I’ve had bad luck this year, unlike 2020 when I fluked my way to many a win). Off the line it was formation flying with the top set, while Perez and Vettel made good starts further back. Perez charged up and was soon running right behind his team mate. Leclerc held off Hamilton for a lap or two before getting passed by the Briton, and a few laps later Verstappen did likewise. As suspected, the Ferrari chewed its tyres a bit and was one of the first in. The Red Bulls kept pace with Hamilton, whose slow stop (Gasly pitted at the same time, delaying the Mercedes’ release) enabled the fast Red Bulls to pit on successive laps and emerge, both of them, ahead of the reigning world champion. Hamilton got close to Perez but could not pass. Everyone else pitted, except the Aston Martins, and Gasly managed to lea

Azerbaijan: pre-race 2021

Rare to see a quartet of red flags in qualifying, but that’s what we got. Chaos, bordering on farce, though the grid ended up intriguingly poised for the race. The first session was notable for having a pair of red flags by Stroll and, later, Giovinazzi, putting both chaps out. Especially unfortunate for Stroll who may have aimed for Q3. As might be expected, the Haas drivers and Latifi also exited at this stage. For the most part, Q2 was more normal, although a late Ricciardo crash brought out a third red flag and robbed many, including an understandably frustrated Vettel (11 th by three-hundredths), of the chance to improve. The German was joined by Ocon, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, and Russell. The first run of Q3 pretty much settled things as a late double crash (two solo incidents at the same place) by Tsunoda and Sainz foiled second runs. Leclerc ended up a not-really-surprise top dog, benefiting from a huge tow from Hamilton to finish on pole with an impressively large margin o

Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2021

Singapore has been cancelled (you can guess which Horseman of the Apocalypse is responsible). At the moment, alternatives under consideration include Turkey, and a second race at the Circuit of the Americas, but we’ll have to wait and see. And so to Azerbaijan, a weird circuit that’s 95% Monaco tedium but 5% wacky races comedy crashing and farcical restarts. In first practice Verstappen was fastest, but only just, less than half a tenth ahead of Leclerc. Sainz was next but a third of a second further back, with Perez, Ricciardo, and Gasly in close contention. Hamilton, Norris, Alonso, and Bottas rounded out the top 10. Second practice had Perez top, a tenth ahead of his team mate. Sainz was less than three-hundredths off the Dutchman and two-tenths ahead of his Monegasque team mate. Gasly and Alonso were separated by intervals of a tenth, with Giovinazzi, Norris, Ocon, and Tsunoda all lagging a bit. Third practice was very choppy, with an early red flag after Verstappen crashed