Posts

Showing posts from 2017

2017 post-season review

Image
All in all, the 2017 season was not a classic, but it was quite good for the most part. There was a genuine title contest until the last quarter, and a fiercely competitive midfield, behind Force India. Up until about Singapore, the 2017 title was closely contested in a very engaging rivlary between Vettel and Hamilton. A combination of the Singapore wipeout and a sudden bout of Ferrari gremlins put paid to that, alas. Further down, Red Bull and Force India were firmly 3 rd and 4 th , with Williams doing well to secure 5 th and a very close battle behind them between Renault, Toro Rosso and Haas. For McLaren and Sauber, it was a year to forget. Both teams have different engines next year, McLaren ditching the Honda for Renault, and Sauber no longer having to use a year-old Ferrari (indeed, they’ll be known as Alfa-Romeo Sauber following a new title sponsorship). The penalties situation was frankly ridiculous. We have a 20 car grid, which is a bit small, and drivers

Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis 2017

Well, that wasn’t exactly a rival to Canada 2011. The race was perhaps the most tedious of the season and the only retirement due to reliability was Ricciardo (he had been running in a green position). One is not delighted. There are a few interesting snippets to discuss, though. Off the line it was formation flying at the sharp end but Hulkenberg had a stinker, getting passed by both Force Indias. He got Ocon at the first corner (the Frenchman had nowhere to go, Hulkenberg beside him and Perez ahead) and later passed Perez off-track. The Mexican rightly complained and the German got a slap on the wrist, a mere 5s time penalty. I rate Hulkenberg highly, but he was clearly in the wrong in this instance, and the penalty was weak. The Mercedes were in a league of their own, Hamilton following his team mate closely but unable to effect a pass. Further back, Ricciardo was close behind Vettel, and Verstappen was close behind Raikkonen (the Red Bull looked a shade faster in ra

Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2017

Ha. Well, it’s been that sort of year. I decide against backing Bottas and, contrary to all indications, he manages to win pole. Good for him, galling for me. In Q1 the Toro Rossos were absolutely dreadful, with Hartley dead last and Gasly ahead only of his team mate and the Saubers (who at least have the excuse of using a year old Ferrari engine). Grosjean ended up being the fastest chap to be eliminated at this stage, which is unsurprising as the Haas has looked a bit ropey all weekend. In the second session it was unsurprising Stroll, who had struggled in Q1, and Magnussen were eliminated, but slightly more surprising both McLarens were. Alonso was edged out by Massa, who, despite retiring, remains significantly faster than Stroll. Sainz was another slight surprise, qualifying in 12 th and reporting a problem with power right at the end of the lap. Then we had the final session. Contrary to all expectations, Bottas pulled out the fastest lap on his initial run and

Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying 2017

Hartley has another 10 place grid penalty, this time for the MGU-H. In first practice, which is a lot hotter than qualifying or the race will be so is not especially useful as a guide, Vettel was fastest, a tenth ahead of Hamilton, Verstappen following close behind. Raikkonen, Bottas and Perez were next, with Alonso, Vandoorne, Massa and Ricciardo rounding out the top 10. In second practice, the order was reversed at the sharp end, with Hamilton two-tenths up on Vettel (but the Briton looked substantially better on long runs). Ricciardo was next, with Raikkonen and Bottas next and Verstappen sixth. Perez, Ocon, Hulkenberg and Alonso came next. At this stage I think it’s looking nice and tight, though I think Hamilton has the advantage. Hamilton was again fastest in third practice, three-tenths up on his team mate. Raikkonen was two-tenths off Bottas, and a hair’s breadth ahead of Vettel. Ricciardo and Verstappen were a few tenths down the road and, half a second ba

Brazil: post-race analysis

A very eventful start, and congratulations to Mr. B on backing Vettel to lead lap 1. Annoyingly, of the bets I shortlisted the only ones that didn’t come off were the long shot and the one I actually backed (Ricciardo spun on lap 1 and could easily have crashed out... but didn’t). To make matters worse, between 3 and 4pm Betfair decided to void my bet on Hamilton not reaching the podium (which came off). My initial attempt to contact them didn’t work as the site kept timing out. Before the race started there was some concern at Ferrari over the electronics, definitely on Raikkonen’s car and maybe Vettel’s too. Happily, this seemed not to cause a serious problem. At the start, Vettel just about managed to get ahead of Bottas thanks to a better second phase off the line. Meanwhile, Ricciardo spun off-track and came very close to crashing out. But he didn’t. The swine. Grosjean lost control slightly which unfortunately coincided with Ocon passing him on the outside, puttin

Brazil: pre-race 2017

A very interesting qualifying session. Bottas got pole, which is nice, but Raikkonen couldn’t quite make the top 2, which was a little bit displeasing given his odds were ridiculously long (22/1 at one point). Congratulations to Mr. Sandpit, who is on Bottas at 13.5 for the win (hedgeable at just over evens right now). In the first part of qualifying, Hamilton made a rare mistake, the rear of his car getting away from him and leading to him crashing out immediately. In less surprising news, both Saubers failed to make it out, and, yet again, Stroll also failed to progress. Gasly, who has penalties anyway, was another who exited at this stage. In second practice Hartley, who has penalties as well, didn’t bother running, which is understandable. Both Haas drivers didn’t go any further, and nor did Vandoorne. Surprisingly, Ocon could only register the 11 th fastest time (although he’ll be promoted to 10 th due to Ricciardo’s penalty). Tiny spots of rain came down i

Brazil: pre-qualifying 2017

Some Mercedes team members (and maybe FIA officials too, not sure) were robbed at gunpoint after leaving the circuit yesterday. There has always been some danger at Interlagos, but this is a rather troubling reminder. Nobody was hurt, though valuables were taken. As an aside, all of Verstappen’s three wins to date have come the race after Kvyat got dropped. Odd coincidence. Massa announced last Saturday that he was retiring, due in part to the uncertainty over his position at Williams. I like Massa a lot, he seems like a genuinely nice guy with little ego, and he came incredibly close to the 2008 title only to have it wrenched away by Hamilton’s last gasp pass on Glock. But, the sport does need new blood and Massa’s been around for quite a while. That does make it ironic that the men seemingly next in line are former drivers Kvyat, Kubica and Di Resta. Speaking of fresh blood, Lando Norris has been named McLaren’s reserve driver for next year, replacing Jenson Button.

Early thoughts on 2018

With the 2017 season yet to finish, it might seem too early to contemplate next year. But, the markets are up, and it’s interesting, so I thought I’d have a look at how things might pan out. The regulations stay broadly the same (next big shake up will be 2021). There doesn’t seem to be much movement at all in drivers at top teams (I believe Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren have unchanged lineups). So far, so consistent. There is one major change, which is McLaren moving from Honda to Renault engines. As we’ve seen this year, the Renault is much closer to the Mercedes/Ferrari, although it still has a horsepower deficit. However, the McLaren has looked rather good in aerodynamic terms, and Red Bull were, at some circuits, competitive outright. If the Renault is too unreliable or slow, then we’re likely to have another Hamilton/Vettel season in 2018. If the Renault is good enough to enable Red Bull and McLaren to compete for regular wins, then Verstappen, Ricciar

Mexico: post-race analysis 2017

Neither race bet came off. Been a rather bad year, to be honest. Of the early tips, they’re green overall thanks to Verstappen winning (tipped pre-weekend at 5). Both race bets were at least credible, but you don’t get sympathy winnings. Ricciardo ended up taking a grid penalty. After all that, he started near the back. Anyway, off the line it was very close, Verstappen just about passing Vettel and staying on track. The German tried to come back as Hamilton sought to take advantage and the two collided. Vettel lost part of his front wing, Hamilton suffered a puncture. Verstappen broke away from Bottas and, after lap 1 pit stops from the title contenders, Hamilton was dead last and Vettel was last but one, albeit some way up the road. Behind Bottas, it was spring time for the midfield chaps with Ocon, Hulkenberg and Sainz all ahead of Raikkonen (the Finn has a habit of starting badly). Meanwhile, Ricciardo’s brand new engine failed. A short and not very spectacula

Mexico: pre-race 2017

Gasly didn’t run in qualifying due to engine issues. Vandoorne had a 35 place penalty, with a 20 place penalty for Alonso. Gasly might be miffed, but with Toro Rosso having a Honda engine next year he might have to get used to this sort of thing. Obviously Gasly didn’t escape the first session, and the other four who joined him were the two Saubers and the two Haas cars (which were slower than the Saubers). Pretty weak pace from the American team. In Q2 there was more woe for Toro Rosso as Hartley’s engine failed. The McLarens didn’t run due to their mighty penalties and with Hartley also out by default there were only two ‘proper’ exits. Unfortunately for Williams, both their cars dropped out here, Massa being the faster. And so to Q3, which everybody expected to be very close. And so it proved to be. Verstappen put in a great lap on his first run, but was unable to match Vettel’s second attempt. The German starts on pole, with the Dutchman alongside him. Having

Mexico: pre-qualifying 2017

I’ve rambled a bit more than usual about early bets here, so let me know if you think that’s worthwhile or I should, as is normal, just mention them in passing. Ah, Mexico, where the high altitude alters the aerodynamics and engines in a way that I forget every single year. Unhelpfully, having checked the two previous races, the circuit seems good for Williams and Red Bull, two teams with diametrically opposed design philosophies. Worth recalling there was a significant earthquake in Mexico only a few weeks ago, so hopefully they’re making good progress rebuilding. In other, unsurprising, news, Hartley is retaining his Toro Rosso seat and Kvyat’s gone again, as Gasly comes back. At least if Kvyat has gone for good, he had a good last race, nabbing the final point in Austin. It also sounds like Hartley might retain his seat for 2018. Having read a little, it seems that the high altitude lends itself to massive downforce levels, akin to Monaco/Hungary, despite the lo

USA: post-race analysis 2017

The race was thoroughly entertaining with plenty of action throughout, perhaps spoilt only by the surprising decision against Verstappen late on. In terms of weekend bets, it was green, one bet succeeding and the other failing (due to bad luck regarding reliability). All the early tips, pre-weekend, failed, but two of the three did so due to misfortune (Verstappen’s grid penalty and Ricciardo’s DNF). Congratulations and commiserations to Mr. Sandpit, who correctly tipped No Safety Car at 2.4 and a top 6 finish for Verstappen at 1.75, but failed to back either. Still, it could be worse. Could’ve failed to back his own 70/1 winning tip… Vandoorne ended up starting last because his five place grid penalty was increased to 30. Off the line, Vettel got a flying start and passed Hamilton, with Ocon getting past Raikkonen (who, according to commentary, hasn’t made a single place all year from the start, unless you count his short race in Singapore). Raikkonen soon regai

USA: pre-race 2017

Bit odd having qualifying on at the unusually late hour of 10pm. In broad terms, it went as expected, but I was a bit surprised after the early running that Vettel did as well as he did. In the first session both Saubers left the stage (Ericsson doing well to get the 16 th best time). Magnussen was slowest, Stroll also failed to escape (apparently he had a problem with electrical energy and, in this era, that effectively holes you below the waterline) and Hartley, in his first race, got 18 th . In the second session, Hulkenberg was ‘slowest’ but that was mostly due to the fact he didn’t run (not much point with such a large grid penalty). Grosjean also struggled, although he was lucky to make it through after Stroll had impeded him in Q1 (the three place grid penalty the Canadian got won’t stop him starting higher on the grid than he qualified, likewise for Magnussen who blocked Perez).Vandoorne was a bit slower than expected, and ahead of him was Kvyat and Massa. All