The Netherlands: post-race analysis 2022

It wasn’t exactly a classic last year and this time out the circuit gave us an eventful race that also saw the picture perfect definition of a value loser. My bet was red and it should have been green all day long.

Of the top chaps those who were British were on medium tyres and the rest were on soft.

Hamilton had a poor getaway but defended well to retain his place while Norris got the jump on Russell. A few laps later the Mercedes driver retook the position.

At the front it was business as usual with Verstappen slowly getting away from Leclerc and a bigger gap forming between Leclerc and Sainz. Hamilton was right on the Spaniard’s tail but unable to pass.

Eventually the top three pitted for a Mercedes 1-2 on track, but it was further down the grid an interesting thing happened. Alonso put on hard tyres and found, contrary to all expectations, they were really good. And because Mercedes had started both their driver son medium tyres a one stop was very much on. When Hamilton and Russell came in for hard tyres and emerged in clear air ahead of Sainz (who had had a nightmare stop of 10s, though that was only the first of his woes) things were looking rosier than a rosy thing.

Verstappen had to stop again, but passing, while possible, was relatively difficult and Hamilton and Russell (three second gap between the Mercedes) were both too close to emerge from the pits ahead. It was looking like a 1-2 finish.

Then a stupid thing occurred. Tsunoda stopped by the wayside alleging a wheel was loose. The team said it was not so. He got going, after a brief yellow flag, then returned to the pits. Tyres were changed. And then he stopped on track bringing out a stupid, pointless, VSC. This practically negated the advantage Mercedes’ strategic cunning had got them, with Verstappen losing far less time in the pits. In fact, Hamilton and Russell both pitted for medium tyres and emerged behind the Dutchman.

So, unlucky but still on for a double podium. Verstappen was on hard so the medium for the Mercedes might have worked out.

And then Bottas’ Alfa Romeo broke down on the main straight. Sainz passed Ocon during yellows and got a 5s penalty for it, and everyone pitted for softs. Except Hamilton.

Mercedes could have played it one of two ways. Keep their drivers as is, with Russell as a rear gunner, or pit both for fresh tyres. Instead they, at Russell’s behest (speaking only for himself, of course) brought in the second car for soft tyres. This meant Hamilton had no defence and older tyres.

 

He was understandably pissed at this Ferrariesque approach to squandering opportunities. Come the restart Verstappen immediately passed him on the straight. Then Russell got by. Then Leclerc. A combination of misfortune and a very bad call put Hamilton from a great shot at victory down to 4^th (Russell retained 2^nd, with Verstappen ahead and Leclerc behind). The debrief is going to be fun.

Hamilton wasn’t the only chap with bad luck, though. The safety car’s late timing meant Sainz’s 5s penalty cost him a bundle of places and he ended up in 8^th, behind Perez, Alonso, and Norris. Perez was pretty anonymous today, though Alonso and Norris did well, both benefiting from second stints on the hard tyre. Ocon was 9^th and Stroll 10^th.

 

Luck can go this way and that with betting but today it buggered Hamilton and ruined what should have been a winning bet. Still, that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

The next race is only a week away, in Italy. We’re off to Monza.

  

Morris Dancer