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Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis 2021

Blimey. My bet failed but the race was ultra-exciting. Off the line, Verstappen had a very poor start, getting immediately passed by Hamilton and doing well to fend off Norris. That slowed the Briton who then got passed by Perez, who had started well. Norris ended up losing a few gears, getting them back, then having a slow puncture. At the sharp end, Verstappen stayed close to Hamilton and dove down the inside. Hamilton took evasive action and went off-track, cutting the corner and not merely retaining the lead but extending his advantage to 1.2s or so. Race control laughably claimed that he had ‘given back’ the time advantage gained. Red Bull, understandably, were not pleased.  Hamilton then slowly increased the gap, simply having the legs to get away from Verstappen and build an ever more comfortable lead. When they pitted, it was a case of rinse and repeat. The Dutchman was second and drifting backwards inexorably. Red Bull had Perez run long to try and hold up Hamilton,

Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2021

Well, I’d thought Hamilton near certain for pole, but in the end he was out by quite a margin. Unexpected, and sets up the race nicely. Q1 was mostly to form, with the Haas drivers propping up the timesheet. Raikkonen was also eliminated as were both Williams, although, unusually, Latifi outqualified his team mate. Q2 saw a very aggravated Alonso as the fastest chap eliminated (he believed a McLaren got in his way, uncertain if this was the case or not). Gasly and Stroll were also out, as were Giovinazzi and Vettel. Perhaps of greater interest is that both Red Bulls initially set times on the mediums but were forced to the softs (Perez for pace, Verstappen because he had flat-spotted his medium set). So the Mercedes (and the impressively quick Tsunoda) are set to start the race on medium tyres, and the Red Bulls are on the softs. At this stage, Hamilton seemed to have the edge. But then Red Bull implemented their cunning plan. They put out Perez just ahead of Verstappen to give h

Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying 2021

And so we head into the final race of the season, with defending champion Hamilton and title rival Verstappen equal on points. If they stay that way, Verstappen takes the title by virtue of more wins. It’s been exciting, very tight, and sometimes ill-tempered. I’ll be quite surprised if the race doesn’t feature at least one highly controversial move on track, or other shenanigans. In first practice Verstappen was fastest, two-tenths ahead of Bottas, who was almost that far ahead of Hamilton, with Perez following the Mercedes. Tsunoda, Alonso, and Gasly followed, with Leclerc, Sainz, and Vettel rounding out the top 10. Hamilton topped the times in second practice, a third of a second ahead of Ocon, who was half a tenth up on Bottas. Verstappen was a couple of tenths further back, then came Perez, Alonso, Tsunoda, Leclerc, Sainz, and Gasly. Third practice once more saw the Briton on top, two-tenths ahead of his title rival. Bottas was half a second down the road, two-hundredths a

Saudi Arabia: pre-race 2021

Qualifying looked like it might be very close, but it exceeded expectations in that regard. Less brilliant was my internet deciding now would be an optimal time to stop functioning. *sighs* The odd ducks in Q1 were the Aston Martins, neither of whom were fast enough to escape. Slightly odd to see, as were the Alfa Romeos, both of whom (again, unusually) made it into Q2 fairly easily. The Haas drivers were eliminated too, Mazepin the slower, as was Latifi. In Q2, Alfa Romeo continued their weirdly good run of form, and while Raikkonen was eliminated in 12 th (just behind Ricciardo), Giovinazzi made it through to Q3. Alonso and Russell were also out. Slowest was Sainz, but that was because his car let go and while he almost escaped unscathed the rear wing was damaged and he couldn’t put in a real time. Heading into Q3, Verstappen looked to have a pace advantage, but a marginal one. He duly set the first time on the first run but Hamilton was faster when he had his second fast lap

Saudi Arabia: pre-qualifying 2021

First practice had Hamilton ahead of Verstappen by half a tenth. If that actually reflects race pace we’ll be in for a cracker. Bottas was a tenth and a half further back, with Gasly another quarter of a second adrift. Next was Giovinazzi (unusually high for an Alfa), then Sainz, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Alonso and Vettel (Perez in 11 th ). In second practice, Hamilton, Bottas, and Gasly were covered by less than a tenth. Verstappen was two-tenths off Hamilton but given Gasly’s pace I cannot believe that’s representative. It could be very tight. Next were the Alpines, Alonso leading Ocon, then Sainz, Tsunoda, Perez, and Leclerc. At this stage things looked ultra-competitive at the sharp end. Come third practice, Verstappen was the fastest man, two-tenths ahead of Hamilton. Perez was next but three-tenths further back, and closely followed by both AlphaTauris (Tsunoda leading Gasly). Bottas was nine-tenths off Verstappen, which may not necessarily indicate his actual pace, just ahead o

Hamilton’s the favourite - should he be?

After Brazil, Verstappen and Hamilton were seen as having an equal shot of the title with three races to go. After Qatar, Hamilton cut Verstappen’s lead to 8 points and, with two races remaining, has now become the favourite for the title. But should he be? Over the course of the season it’s been very nip and tuck, with the lead changing hands multiple times. In the last two races, however, Hamilton has had a clear pace advantage over his rival. If that advantage is maintained then, frankly, Verstappen needs a Hamilton DNF in order to win the title, or something remarkable to happen. In terms of weather this is almost certainly not going to happen, as the Middle East is not renowned for its rainstorms and there have been a grand total of no wet races in Abu Dhabi during the many years we’ve gone there. However, the Mercedes power unit has been a surprising (relative) weak spot this year, both being less reliable than other engines and prone to losing more horsepower. The latter sho

Qatar: post-race analysis 2021

I backed Alonso and it turned out alright in the end, which was a relief given how things transpired. Many things happened during the race so I’ll do my best but cannot guarantee I’ll remember it all just so. Verstappen had a 5 place grid penalty and Bottas a 3 place penalty for failing to slow sufficiently under yellows, promoting Gasly, Alonso, and Sainz. Off the line Gasly and Alonso both had good starts but the Frenchman was unable to take Hamilton and it was the wily old Spaniard who ended up second to the Briton. Indeed, in doing so Alonso put a temporary halt to Verstappen’s charge (the Dutchman roared from 7 th to 4 th right away). Verstappen soon dispatched Gasly and Alonso, and, although he was never quite on Hamilton’s pace (possibly due to front wing damage) the two title contenders amused themselves trading fastest laps and effortlessly surging away from the field. The gap in pace was alarming. Further down the grid, Bottas had gone backwards at the start while Per

Qatar: pre-race 2021

Maybe it’s a good thing there wasn’t a Bottas each way market given he ended up where he did. In Q1 we had pretty much the chaps you’d expect departing (Mazepin being over 2s slower than next-slowest driver Schumacher). Both Alfa Romeos and Latifi also failed to progress. Q2 was interesting. Gasly, who had cruised through Q1 on the medium tyres, shifted to the softs (all the Aston Martin, AlphaTauri, and Alpine drivers did likewise). Initially, the Ferraris and McLarens were on the medium but some at least were compelled to put on the softs for their second runs, as did Perez. However, this was not enough to get Perez out, as he qualified 11 th , behind Sainz (who might have set his fastest time on the medium, not sure). Bit of a shock and really not what Red Bull need. Excepting Russell, 15 th , every driver eliminated had their team mate make it to Q3, with Stroll, Leclerc (also very surprisingly out), and Ricciardo failing to progress. Q3 had both Mercedes, and both Alpines/Al

Qatar: pre-qualifying 2021

Glad not to have another race weekend besmirched with the filth of a sprint race. Anyway… In off-track news we now know Bottas’ Alfa Romeo team mate for next year. As many had suspected it’s the first Chinese chap to make the grid, in the form of Guanyu Zhou (pronounced ‘jo’ if my memory of pinyin is correct). He does bring money but is also second in F2 at the time of writing. Slightly surprisingly, despite the new cockpit camera footage of Verstappen the FIA deemed no new investigation was necessary. In first practice Verstappen was fastest by four-tenths over Gasly and Bottas, with Hamilton three-tenths down the road. Tsunoda, Sainz, Leclerc, Perez, Ocon, and Norris rounded out the top 10. Second practice had fastest, but once again it was Gasly as best of the rest (two-tenths down), with Verstappen and Hamilton within a tenth of one another. Norris, Stroll, and Tsunoda followed, then came Perez Vettel and Sainz. Too early to call pace at the sharp end, I think. And likewi

Brazil: post-race analysis 2021

Well, I predicted Hamilton would have a great race, and, just like Emperor Palpatine, everything proceeded as I had foreseen. Both bets came off, which was a relief. Off the line it was the reverse of the sprint race as Bottas got edged out by Verstappen to immediately lose the lead, and dipping a tyre onto the turf slowed him sufficiently that Perez was able to pass him too. Meanwhile, BFFs Sainz and Norris suffered woe when the Briton tried a move that might be politely termed optimistic, putting the Spaniard down a few spots and giving Norris himself a puncture that had him dead last. Hamilton had a stonking first lap, passing many and aided by Norris’ misfortune to end it all the way up in 5 th . He gained another place on the next lap and was then gifted the final podium position by his team mate. The Red Bulls were still a few seconds up the road but then Tsunoda had a very clumsy passing attempt on Stroll that littered the first corner with debris and brought out the safet

Brazil: pre-race 2021

Sprint races as a concept remain the most tedious nonsense, although Hamilton being sent to the back of the grid following disqualification for a technical infringement related to his rear wing did mean there was a lot of passing at this one. Including off the line, when Verstappen’s second phase was so poor he immediately lose the lead to Bottas and shortly thereafter lost second to Sainz. He did pass the Spaniard but, although he spent a fair few laps just behind Bottas (and the Finn was on soft tyres to the Dutchman’s medium) that order remain unchanged. Perez was just behind Sainz for the whole race but unable to effect a pass. Good for the Spaniard but not great for the Mexican. Hamilton scythed through the field, passing the backmarkers and lower midfield with effortless ease before encountering a bit more resistance from the likes of Ricciardo and Vettel (who succumbed nevertheless in the end). He ended up 5 th , but does take a 5 place grid penalty for changing engine parts

Brazil: pre-sprint race

I loathe sprint races. Anyway… Qualifying that wasn’t really qualifying began with a surprise. In a Williams, Russell was outqualified by Latifi. Impressive work from the Canadian, one of two (Stroll the other) eliminated in Q1. Naturally, both Haas were also out at this stage. In Q2 saw Alpine at the cut-off with Ocon fastest of those who failed to progress and Alonso squeaking through. Vettel, Tsunoda, and both Alfa Romeo chaps also exited here. At this moment it seemed Hamilton was the dominant force by a clear margin, with Verstappen/Bottas quite close to one another. And so it proved in Q3, with the Briton (who has a 5 place grid penalty in the proper, actual, entertaining race) taking pole by four-tenths. Verstappen did manage to put his Red Bull on the front row for the stupid sprint race, however, with Bottas and Perez on row two. Gasly was impressive again as best of the rest, ahead of the Ferraris of Sainz and Leclerc. The Prancing Horse seems to have become the best

Mexico: pre-race 2021

Well, if you had a free bet then Bottas for pole would’ve come off nicely. Didn’t back that myself but did have an earlier dinky bet on him winning (23) which I shall likely hedge. Sainz was ahead of Leclerc but it was Gasly who was best of the rest (the Frenchman’s been one of the most impressive drivers all year). Bucketload of red flags this year, mostly in qualifying, and we got another one in the first session before most people had a time on the board. Stroll had a somewhat rubbish crash, just going a bit wide, losing grip, then introducing his car to the barriers. It seemed to take an excessively long time for the session to restart, but eventually it did. Joining the Canadian (who had a back of the grid penalty anyway and may now start from the pitlane if his chassis needs changing) were the two Haas cars, of course, plus Latifi and, weirdly, Alonso. The Spaniard had an odd failure to get things together, compounded by his team mate (also going to the back of the grid) just n

Mexico: pre-qualifying 2021

Russell has a 5 place grid penalty for a gearbox change. It’s also ironic that Mercedes have raised Senna-Prost and crashing, given that it’s their man who punted Verstappen off in the UK. I suspect this is actually a quite smart (or cynical, as you like) mind game to needle Verstappen/Red Bull. Also, China isn't on the grid next year but has been confirmed as sticking around until at least 2025.  The top three in first practice were separated by just over a tenth of a second, with Bottas fastest, then Hamilton, then Verstappen. Perez was only another tenth further back, with Gasly over six-tenths off the ultimate pace. The Frenchman was followed by Sainz, Alonso, Leclerc, Ocon, and Vettel. In second practice had Verstappen faster than Bottas by four-tenths, with Hamilton another tenth further back. Perez was less than a tenth behind the Briton, and half a second ahead of Sainz. Then came Gasly, Leclerc, Tsunoda, Vettel, and Alonso. Very much looking like the top two team

USA: pre-race 2021

Qualifying did not go quite as anticipated, and it’s, in retrospect, a shame I didn’t go with temptation (this time). In Q1 it wasn’t too surprising to see both Haas drivers, Latifi, and Raikkonen fail to progress, although Stroll not escaping is a bit disappointing (especially given Vettel as a back-of-the-grid penalty for an engine change and is team mate does not). Despite some good work giving his team mate a tow, Alonso was unable to help Ocon get past Q2, the Alpine drivers 14 and 11 th fastest respectively but Alonso also incurring a penalty sending him to the rear of the grid. Vettel, Giovinazzi, and Russell also exited at this stage, meaning five teams had both drivers in Q3. The McLarens and Ferraris had looked competitive at the sharp end earlier, but would they be in Q3? No. But there was a surprising pole-sitter after the first hot laps in the form of Perez (15 in the betting), putting his illustrious team mate into 2 nd , provisionally. However, after the second ru

USA: pre-qualifying 2021

F1 has released its race calendar for 2022, with the notable absence of China and Bahrain/Saudi Arabia taking the opening of the season from Australia (the third race). Bit surprised Qatar isn’t on given it’s making an appearance this year, and irked that it seems we’ll have a second (first in calendar terms) F1 race in the USA, in Miami. We’ve also seen the comedic release of the F1 fan survey: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.new-global-fan-survey-reveals-f1s-most-popular-team-and-driver.2evqTWEPsWYeBlw9vmSyBs.html “There was also a net positive reaction to F1 Sprint…” And yet it seems just 6.7% of fans surveyed agreed it had improved the show. https://twitter.com/superlicense/status/1451430900441370624   Despite that, we might have them at eight sodding races next year: https://twitter.com/wtf1official/status/1445029728927236105   Anyway, Bottas has a 5 place grid penalty for an engine change, with Russell and Vettel starting from the back for simil

Turkey: post-race analysis

Bit off-colour so this will be more concise than usual. Race defied forecast and started damp (inters throughout). Ricciardo took a penalty for a new engine and started last. First lap Gasly was sandwiched with Alonso on the outside, Spaniard spun, Frenchman got an undeserved 5s penalty. Hamilton, Sainz, and Ricciardo made good progress, then the Aussie spun, ruining his race. With Leclerc and Hamilton not stopping, it was Leclerc, Bottas, Verstappen, Hamilton. Ferrari boxed. Hamilton’s pace seemed good but they pitted him anyway and he was not happy to be down to 5 th , (he had been 3rd) behind Perez. Late on, under threat from Gasly due to graining but managed to hold on. Good solid win for Bottas, his first in over a year. Verstappen will be thrilled to make up ground given Hamilton was faster all weekend. Did rain make things harder for the Briton? Maybe. Perez joins his team mate on the podium, ahead of Leclerc (who seemed on for the win, and may well have done better no

Turkey: pre-race 2021

Qualifying started off damp, but just about ok for slicks, and the ‘100%’ chance of rain didn’t see any beyond spots arrive. However, the session was still very interesting and the grid’s a little more shaken up than expected (given Hamilton’s 10 place and Sainz’s back-of-the-grid penalties). Track limits being imposed harmed the Alfa Romeos, both of whom were dumped out in Q1. Mazepin likewise failed to progress, but Mick Schumacher did a great job to get his Haas into Q2. Latifi also exited at this stage but the shock departure was Ricciardo, put out by Sainz (doing a very good job for Ferrari given their tight battle with McLaren). Sainz didn’t bother with Q2, which is fair enough, and he was joined on the departure list by Vettel, Ocon, Russell, and Schumacher. Russell had the pace to make Q3 but buggered up the last corner. All session long the Mercedes had looked somewhat more comfortable than the Red Bull, and Perez seemed more competitive with his team mate than is often

Turkey: pre-qualifying 2021

Some off-track news in the shape of Qatar arriving. We’ll see how the circuit stacks up. Bahrain is sometimes good (and sometimes very good) but otherwise the Middle Eastern tracks aren’t spectacular. In bad news, it seems F1 wants to stuff half the calendar with sprint races next year. I hope that doesn’t go ahead. Pointless, time-consuming tedium to squeeze money out of ticket sales. Humbug! Anyway, to Turkey. Pirelli believe the tyre choices may end up being too aggressive, so we may see plenty of pit stops, which could be good for the race. First practice saw Hamilton a whopping four-tenths ahead of Verstappen, who was barely ahead of Leclerc. Next up was Bottas, then Sainz, followed by Ocon, Norris, Gasly, Alonso, and Perez. Second practice again saw Hamilton top the timesheets, this time a tenth and a half ahead of Leclerc. Bottas and Perez followed, with Verstappen only fifth. Norris, Alonso, Ocon, Gasly, and Giovinazzi rounded out the top 10. Unusually high overlap

Russia: post-race analysis 2021

Russia sometimes produces boring races. This was not such a race; it was exciting from start to finish.. Before the start, Mercedes tried tactical shenanigans by giving Bottas a new power unit, earning him a grid penalty. Off the line, two men had weird starts: Sainz and Ricciardo. Sainz left the handbrake on and looked swamped but then benefited from the slipstream of Norris to claim the lead. Ricciardo’s getaway was good but he ended up hemmed in and, along with Hamilton, fell down to around the 7 th or 8 th mark. Sainz and Norris were close together but pulled away from Russell, who led a DRS train involving Stroll, Ricciardo, and Hamilton. Further down the field, Verstappen passed Bottas with seemingly little effort. At the sharp end, Stroll and Russell boxed, then Sainz did. The McLarens and Hamilton stayed out longer (but not as long as Perez and Alonso who waited until there were only 18 laps or so left). Ricciardo was screwed by a very bad pit stop (others had similar

Russia: pre-race 2021

I said qualifying would be uncertain, and that proved truer than I could have imagined. Incidentally, Leclerc also has a back of the grid penalty but will start ahead of Verstappen due to being ahead of him in qualifying. It was wet but drying in Q1, with intermediates the order of the day. We waved goodbye to both Haas and Alfa Romeos, who joined Verstappen (who just had a sighter lap). Q2 was more competitive, and had Hamilton leading Bottas at the sharp end. The relegation zone saw Vettel depart, just half a tenth off Sainz. Gasly’s normally a day and a half ahead of Tsunoda but on this occasion will start just one place further up the grid, with Latifi and Leclerc also failing to progress. Russell might have been in trouble if the track weren’t drying so swiftly as he’d used all his intermediates but it was soon dry enough to try for slicks. Everyone ended up copying him, but Hamilton cocked up and cost both him and Bottas. He hit the wall entering the pit lane, necessitating

Russia: pre-qualifying 2021

Verstappen got a 3 place grid penalty for the incident last time. Somewhat surprised. But there we are. And he’s taking an engine penalty which means he’s starting at the back of the grid. The Ferraris, I think, have new engines this time around. First practice saw Bottas top of the time sheets, two-tenths ahead of Hamilton, with Verstappen just a hundredth off his title rival. Four-tenths further back was Leclerc, with another seven-tenths gap to Vettel. Gasly, Sainz, Norris, Perez, and Alonso round out the top 10. Second practice had the same top two, with the gap just four-hundredths. Behind the Mercedes by two-tenths was Gasly, with sizeable gaps to Norris, Ocon, and Verstappen. Sainz and Alonso were narrowly behind the Dutchman, and just ahead of Vettel and Leclerc. At this stage it looks set to be a Mercedes front row, and rain is possible for both qualifying and the race. Third practice was cancelled due to rain. Qualifying is scheduled at 1pm UK time but it’s unclea

Italy: post-race analysis 2021

Overtaking was very hard in the sprint, and it was largely true in the race. In stark contrast to much of the year, good fortune was clearly mine as both aspects of the bet came off. Huzzah! There was much misfortune for drivers though, with the first man thus afflicted being Yuki Tsunoda, whose AlphaTauri went wonky on the grid and had to be wheeled back to the garage (he was unable to start). Almost everyone went to start on medium tyres, with a notable exception being the two Mercedes. Off the line, Hamilton actually got away well, passing Norris and challenging Verstappen, who had lost out to Ricciardo. However, the Dutchman closed the door, Hamilton went off-track over a chicane, and this enabled Norris to retake third spot. Both title contenders were bottled up behind McLarens. Further back, both Perez and (especially) Bottas were making progress from lowly starting positions. The safety car was briefly brought out off backmarkers went off (one of the Alfa Romeos, with Gasl

Italy: pre-race 2021

For what it’s worth, which ain’t much, Hamilton and Bottas and Verstappen topped second practice, with two-tenths intervals. Perez was another two-tenths back, then came Ocon, Kubica, Giovinazzi, Alonso, Gasly, and Norris.  Surprised to see Alpine and Alfa Romeo there but such were the results. Most drivers started the sprint on the medium but exceptions on softs were the McLarens, Alpines, and Aston Martins. Unusually, off the line Bottas did well, Verstappen was a bit iffy but managed to cling onto his place, and Hamilton started poorly, slipping behind both McLarens (Ricciardo overtaking his team mate) and Gasly. The AlphaTauri driver was unlucky that minimal contact with Norris damaged his front wing, which broke, went under his car, and sent him crashing out on lap 1. The safety car emerged but the story of the race has largely been told. The top five retained their places, Bottas snagging 3 points, Verstappen 2, and Ricciardo 1. Hamilton got very close to Norris but even

Italy: pre-sprint race 2021

Ahem, due to being too swift the numbers entered for the title race (constructors) previously were actually old (not updated with the Dutch result). Here’s how things currently stand: Mercedes 344.5 Red Bull 332.5 Ferrari 181.5 McLaren 170 Alpine 90 AlphaTauri 84 Aston Martin 53 Williams 20 Alfa Romeo 3 Haas 0 Also, Bottas, surprising no-one, is leaving Mercedes and joining Alfa Romeo next year. And, staggeringly, Russell is off to Mercedes. Gosh. Gosh, I tell you. Likewise, Gasly and Tsunoda are confirmed for AlphaTauri in 2022. The Frenchman, along with Norris, is the best performing driver of the year, so that’s very good for a midfield team.  Elsewhere, Albon’s back in F1, at Williams. And, just for the next race (presumably), Kubica is standing in for Raikkonen again. I’m not a fan of this stupid sprint race format. On the plus side, we actually had a qualifying session without a red flag. In Q1 things were pretty much as expected with Kubica, the Haas drivers, and L