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Showing posts from April, 2019

Azerbaijan: post-race analysis 2019

Well, the bet didn’t come off and the race wasn’t that great, so easily the worst one of the year so far. Quite surprised by the low DNF rate, and zero crashing rate (discounting a reversing incident). Raikkonen ended up with a pit lane start due to a tiny front wing infringement, and Kubica got one for a fuel flow irregularity. Off the line, Hamilton started well but Bottas defended superbly to keep the Briton behind him and then pull a significant lead over the course of the first lap. Unfortunately, that was also as close as the pair ever got. Further back, Perez had a stonking start to pass Verstappen and drove well to keep the Dutchman behind him for a while, but eventually the Red Bull’s pace told and Verstappen passed the Mexican. Leclerc was the only frontrunner (if you can call a chap starting 8 th a frontrunner) to start on the slower medium tyre, although Gasly, starting last of the three pit lane fellows, did likewise. He lost a few places off

Azerbaijan: pre-race 2019

A very odd, prolonged qualifying. Passively galling, as Mr. Sandpit’s tip was doomed by misfortune, and the bet I had contemplated and decided against when the terms changed ended up coming off. I neither lost nor gained anything, yet felt peeved all the same. As well as Gasly’s pit lane start, Giovinazzi, who reached his first ever Q3, has a 10 place grid penalty for electronic parts being changed. In the first part of qualifying, we had the Williams at the back, which is, alas, usual. Less usual is the crash that occurred when Kubica introduced his car to the barriers, but the Pole was fine, although a moderately lengthy delay ensued. Stroll, Haas, and Hulkenberg failed to progress, the German’s slowness at least partly down to the car, whilst Stroll will be a bit miffed to see his team mate make the top 10. Leclerc dominated the day, until his car (on medium tyres, as was Vettel but no-one else) struck the same barrier with which Kubica had earlier become intimately

Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2019

As soon as the winner market went up (fifth the odds top 3 on 15 th April) I backed, with tiny stakes, seven midfield/backmarker drivers each way for the win. In recent years, even with the dominance of the top three teams, we’ve seen Perez and Stroll achieve podium results at Azerbaijan, largely due to the chaotic and crashing nature of the circuit (turns out Monaco + a massive straight isn’t conducive to finishing the race). So, I backed, and tipped on PB, the following (prices Ladbrokes with boost): Ricciardo 651 Hulkenberg 651 Magnussen 901 Grosjean 901 Raikkonen 1301 Perez 1751 Stroll 3001 Very much long shots, but also educated guesses. Anyway, I did advocate splitting one stake between the lot. We’ll see what happens (still odds against, of course). First practice was curtailed by a manhole cover getting sucked up by the aerodynamic power of Russell’s Williams, thoroughly buggering his car and preventing the session from resuming (hundreds of cov

China: post-race analysis 2019

After very competitive qualifying, the race was a little less close, certainly at the sharp end. The Kvyat bet failed (as an aside, so did both the other ones I was considering) but the weekend as a whole was green, which is nice. Off the line, Bottas was slow and passed by Hamilton, and Leclerc passed Vettel who started perfectly well but had to slow to avoid ramming into Bottas. Further back, Perez had a good start and Kvyat dropped a couple of places, an error compounded by playing dodgems with both McLarens, which helped none of their races. The ensuing debris brought out a brief virtual safety car whilst the track was cleared by stewards. Early on the top five stayed as they were. Vettel appeared to be faster than Leclerc but unable to pass. He nagged on the radio until the team, to the Monegasque’s displeasure, ordered him to let the German through. Leclerc duly, if grumpily, obeyed, yet it was a little odd that Vettel was unable to pull away (he had looked faste

China: pre-race 2019

The Bottas bet came off, by a wafer-thin margin, but winning’s winning (in this case, with a slice of luck). Although not hedging proved more profitable, I am wondering about rejigging my money a bit (even though I dislike doing that) so I can hedge more easily using Betfair. Anyway, a splendid start to the racing weekend. Albon introduced his car to the barriers during the latter minutes of third practice, preventing him from playing during qualifying. Giovinazzi’s Alfa Romeo was unco-operative and the Italian was unable to get out either, meaning both were automatically eliminated at the first stage. It was business as usual for Williams, at the back of the grid by about a second (although the two drivers were very close). Stroll was the only other chap properly axed here, as Albon and Giovinazzi didn’t even get to set times. Not great for the Canadian. Just as well he tends to start quickly. In the second session the top five (Verstappen plus Mercedes and Ferrari) w

China: pre-qualifying 2019

Incidentally, if you’ve been following my tips do feel free to buy my book Crown of Blood (or books, if you haven’t bought any of the trilogy yet). It’s a rather good fantasy and only a few pounds. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Crown-Blood-Bloody-Trilogy-Book-ebook/dp/B07PLFC2PB/ Pre-practice I decided to back (and mentioned on PB) Bottas for fastest qualifier, each way (third the odds top 2) at 8.5 (9 with boost). He’s been very close behind Hamilton in both qualifying sessions so far, and if Mercedes is the fastest in China, which I think they were last year, then he stands a good chance of a front row start. I’ve been mildly surprised by just how quickly Ferrari, and Leclerc especially, have seen their stock rise due to Bahrain. It was an impressive performance but it was also one race of many this year. Between the last race and this, Raikkonen opined that it’s easier to follow cars under the new regulations, contrary to what many had feared. This is also backed up by Hulke