Italy: pre-race 2022
And so, qualifying. Which will be marmalised by half the grid having penalties.
The Haas chaps were slowest of all in qualifying, and both Aston Martins were also eliminated. Ironic the team did better on a shoestring than it does today. Latifi was also eliminated meaning that his one-off team mate Nick De Vries had a rather good first ever qualifying, and that on short notice, to make Q2.
Tsunoda, one of many with a penalty, did not bother running in Q2. Both Alfa Romeos departed at this stage, Bottas the faster, with De Vries in the middle. The fastest eliminated driver was Ocon, who is also subject to a penalty.
On pace, Verstappen was looking typically strong but with him (and Sainz) incurring penalties starting on pole seemed natural for Leclerc. He achieved this, and clocked the fastest time to boot, beating Verstappen by a tenth and a half, with Sainz just a tenth further back. Lovely day for Ferrari at home, but we’ve seen splendid Saturdays squandered by them before.
Fourth on the qualifying time sheet was Perez, then Hamilton (both with penalties), then Russell, who will probably be promoted to the front row. Norris and Ricciardo make this a great qualifying session for McLaren, with Gasly behind them, and Alonso slowest in Q3.
The weather forecast is for it to be sunny throughout. Given
the umpteen penalties, here’s a rundown of the grid, from pole to last:
Leclerc, Russell
Norris, Ricciardo
Gasly, Alonso
Verstappen, De Vries
Zhou Guanyu, Latifi
-------------------------
Vettel, Stroll
Perez, Ocon
Bottas, Magnussen
Schumacher, Sainz
Hamilton, Tsunoda
Early betting thoughts:
Sainz podium
Verstappen win
Sainz is way back in 18th, but on pace he was very close to Leclerc and Verstappen (unsure if he had a tow on the last run, he was fastest after the first). Getting onto the podium, all else being equal, means getting past everyone save Leclerc, Verstappen, Tsunoda and Hamilton. May be too tall an order and the 4 available is too short to tempt.
Verstappen is 1.73 to win. He started 7th, and I do wonder if this’ll work out. And it probably will, but the short odds do put me off. There’s always the chance of getting snagged by the inexperienced De Vries and the accident prone Latifi, or his car breaking (Red Bull’s reliability isn’t awful but it certainly isn’t bulletproof).
And so, I browsed the markets looking for something more appealing.
Russell, win each way, 10
Leclerc, win, 2.74 (Betfair)
Ricciardo, win group 2, 3
Under 16.5 classified finisher, 2.25
Russell starts in 2nd place, and while his car is slower than the Red Bull and Mercedes that’s not a bad spot to be in. Passing historically has been hard around the Monza circuit but earlier in the weekend it seemed cars could follow pretty closely into the final corner onto the straight, raising the prospect of more passing (hence Verstappen’s short odds). Despite his front row slot, it may be that the win is beyond Russell.
Pole is a strong indicator historically of winning here, but Leclerc’s six place starting advantage still sees him take second in the odds to Verstappen. However, he was faster than the Red Bull in both first and second Q3 runs. If he gets a clean getaway and retains the lead, it might be that his odds are too long.
Ricciardo’s group on Ladbrokes includes Gasly, Ocon, and Vettel, who start (compared to his 4th) in 5th, 14th, and 11th respectively. His qualifying time was seven-tenths faster than Gasly, Ocon did not make Q3, and Vettel did not make Q2 and starts so highly due to endless penalties for others. It’s also worth noting that Ricciardo’s previous season was poor but Monza was a notable highlight (he won it on merit). Bizarre as it may sound, I might very well back Ricciardo.
The number of classified finishers can be low, though 2.25
for under 16.5 might be a shade tight. Could go either way.
Anyway, I’ve backed Ricciardo to finish ahead of the rest in group 2 at 3.1 (with boost). He starts in the lead and his car is significantly faster, on a circuit where he performed notably well in 2021.
Race start is 2pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
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