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Showing posts from May, 2021

Monaco: post-race analysis 2021

Well, that was a procession. But a green one. And there was a smidgen of strategic interest among the hour and a half or so of televisual Horlicks. Before the race even began Leclerc was out. His drive shaft had not survived fully intact and failed, apparently, during the formation lap. This lead to a DNS and the odd fact that Verstappen still started from the number 2 slot on the grid. Off the line Bottas went well but Verstappen aggressively (but fairly) cut across to hold onto the lead. A lead he never truly relinquished. Cue the procession. Bottas ended up DNFing in the weirdest of ways. He came in for a pit stop only to have a nut so crossthreaded it was irreparable and his car could not resume racing. Bizarre. Aston Martin get bonus points for being very smart. Hamilton was brought in for a pit stop, but his swapping of soft tyres for slower hard tyres left him open to other cars banging in hot laps (as most were cruising to conserve the rubber the majority of the time)

Monaco: pre-race 2021

And so to the exciting part of a Monaco race weekend: qualifying. Q1 had some expected departures, with Schumacher last for the excellent reason his car couldn’t be rebuilt in time. Mazepin was slowest on track, with Latifi and Tsunoda also unable to progress. Perhaps the most unusual chap to go out at this early stage was Alonso, who still isn’t firing on all cylinders. In Q2 Ocon was the fastest of the eliminated drivers, ahead of Ricciardo who was a significant margin behind his team mate yet again. Stroll could only manage the 13 th fastest time (Vettel’s good run continues and he reached Q3). Raikkonen was eliminated, as was Russell. Going into Q3 it was looking like a Ferrari-Verstappen battle with the potential for Bottas to get involved. After the first runs Leclerc was fastest ahead of Verstappen. The Dutchman was flying but then Leclerc crashed into the barriers, and a red flag with 18 seconds on the clock ended qualifying with the Monegasque on pole, and his car in bi

Monaco: pre-qualifying 2021

Ah, Monaco. Like dusting my shelves, only more tedious and time-consuming. Anyway, in first practice Perez was quickest, a tenth ahead of Sainz and with Verstappen close behind. A few tenths further back was Gasly, then Hamilton, Bottas, and Norris, with Vettel, Tsunoda, and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10. Around this time Mr. B, from politicalbetting.com, suggested Ferrari/Leclerc might be good bets. And second practice certainly makes this look credible. Leclerc and Sainz topped the timesheets, separated by a tenth, with the Spaniard more than a quarter of a second ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen was a whole seven-thousandths behind his title rival, with Bottas following. There was a bigger gap back to Norris, then came Gasly, Perez, Giovinazzi, and Vettel. In short, the Prancing Horse might be about to spoil the Red Bull/Silver Arrows party of 2021. Third practice featured a couple of red flags, with both Latifi and Schumacher saying hello to the barriers. Verstappen ende

Spain: post-race analysis 2021

Gosh, a winning tip. A surprise, to be sure. But a welcome one. The race wasn’t a classic but had a few moments. Off the line both Mercedes (perhaps due to starting on that side of the circuit) fared poorly, with Verstappen getting past Hamilton at the first corner and Leclerc taking advantage when Bottas had to slow down in taking account of the tussle his team mate was in. From there, the top two commenced a duel and proceeded away from the pack at a rate of knots. Bottas could not get past Leclerc, which was mildly surprising. However, Tsunoda’s engine stalled and he was forced to park it by the track, a rather odd situation that brought out a safety car. Happily, this was the only DNF of the race. This closed the pack up but come the restart the top four retained their places. It was in an earlier pit stop that Bottas managed to get ahead of Leclerc, before pulling away for a slightly lonely third. Verstappen pitted a few laps earlier than Hamilton. The Briton was very close

Spain: pre-race 2021

Quick calendar note: Turkey’s been added to the UK red list which may have implications for that race, which only recently replaced Canada on the schedule. In Q1 it wasn’t really a surprise to lose the Haas cars and Latifi. Raikkonen perhaps underperformed to leave at this stage, and Tsunoda cocked up and ended up 16 th . Q2 was interesting because both Aston Martins failed to proceed, whereas both Alpines made it to the top 10. As might be expected, Gasly, Giovinazzi, and Russell also exited. Verstappen’s top time was miles faster than the Mercedes, suggesting he might be favourite for pole. In the end it was extremely close but Hamilton pipped his Dutch rival by a third of a tenth, notching his 100 th pole position. Bottas was a tenth further back. Perez screwed up his first lap and on his solitary run could only rack up the 8 th fastest time, almost a second off his team mate. Not good enough. Almost everyone went slower on their second run, with a big exception being Lecl

Spain: pre-qualifying 2021

In two of the last three years Hamilton has beaten Bottas for pole by less than a tenth. Given the Red Bull this year I’m anticipating an ultra-close qualifying. In first practice Bottas was quickest, ahead of Verstappen by less than a tenth, with Hamilton close behind. Norris was only a few tenths further back, narrowly ahead of Leclerc and Sainz. Gasly was next, then Vettel, Perez, and Stroll. Hamilton was quickest in second practice, just over a tenth ahead of Bottas. Leclerc was within half a tenth of the Finn, and ahead of Ocon and Alonso. Gasly and Tsunoda were separated by just two-hundredths. Sainz, Verstappen, and Perez rounded out the top 10. As you may’ve guessed, Verstappen didn’t manage to get in a lap that represented his real pace. Verstappen was fastest in the final practice session, two-tenths up on Hamilton. Leclerc, interestingly, was next, two-tenths further back and marginally ahead of team mate Sainz. Bottas was fifth but that time cannot be representative,

Portugal: post-race analysis 2021

I’ve had some unlucky breaks with bets this year. Hard to say if this was bad luck or a colossal misjudgement, but I’m inclined towards the latter. Russell looked great in qualifying and the pace utterly evaporated in the race. Bit of a head scratcher, to be honest. I prefer a loss like that to a decent judgement subject to misfortune, though. Off the line it was formation flying for the top three, with Sainz passing Perez. Norris and Ocon had a prolonged duel with the Briton moving up at the expense of the Frenchman. At the end of the lap Raikkonen, perhaps surprised by the slipstream pace on his team mate, knocked off his front wing and necessitated a safety car. He ended up being the only DNF of the race (as Stroll was last year). After the restart Verstappen caught Hamilton napping and passed him for 2 nd , with Perez and Norris both passing Sainz. Leclerc and Ocon had a tussle, and Leclerc ended up ahead. A small error cost Verstappen time, put him out of DRS to Bottas but

Portugal: pre-race 2021

Well, it was a very tight battle for pole. But Verstappen was oddly not involved. The first session of qualifying had a surprise. Not only was Stroll eliminated (Vettel made it through) but Ricciardo wasn’t able to escape and was a second off Norris (who put in the second fastest time. The Aussie made some errors, but this has been a surprisingly rocky start to his time at the team. The second session saw Leclerc and the Mercedes and Red Bulls setting times on the medium tyres. Risky strategy but paid off for the Monegasque. Neither Alfa Romeo managed to proceed, and Alonso was only 13 th , just ahead of Tsunoda (both their team mates advanced), and a couple of spots behind Russell who was the fastest eliminated driver. The last session was a bit weird. Verstappen set a ‘slow’ fast time but got it eliminated for exceeding track limits when the wind caught him out and he had to sail off-track. Only his slow time would’ve gotten him pole position and when he went out for a second r

Portugal: pre-qualifying 2021

Turkey has replaced Canada on the calendar for pandemic-related reasons. It’s a shame as Canada tends to produce great races, although Turkey last year was one of the very best. I’m also hoping that my run of value losers will come to an end. Been a bit unlucky this year so far (admittedly, I got some great flukes last year, but still irksome). In first practice Verstappen complained of vibrations making his vision tricky, and he ended up behind Bottas by 0.025s. Perez was next up, a tenth and a half down the road, followed by Leclerc and Hamilton. Then a four-tenths gap led back to Gasly, Russell, Norris, Sainz, and Ocon. In this session 35 lap times were deleted so that may end up being something that affects qualifying. In second practice Hamilton led the way, a tenth and a half ahead of Verstappen. Bottas was two-tenths further back, with Sainz, Alonso, and Ocon, all within a tenth. Surprisingly tasty for Alpine. Leclerc was next up, then Ricciardo and Stroll, with Perez only