MorrisF1

As a special Christmas present, here’s a season review. And what a jolly year it was (if you followed my tips, which were a delightful mixture of well-judged and bloody lucky). In terms of the blog tips, this was my most successful betting year. That’s nice, especially considering it doesn’t include the flukey timing of the Sakhir-Hamilton bets and that I missed Russia because my internet wasn’t working. It’s also worth noting I had more good luck than bad, including a few very significant slices. Norris being winner without the top chaps in Styria (12) was particularly lucky as he grabbed it at the line. Many long term bets also came off, including one from a couple of years ago on Hamilton beating Schumacher’s win record at 9. A pre-season tip on Racing Point to be third didn’t come off, but the in-season tip on McLaren did (just over 3). Likewise my Leclerc hedge to be best of the rest failed, but the Perez tip at just over 3 did come off. Using Hedged stats, 13 of 26 blog bet

Well, I wanted the race to be profitable and entertaining. And I got half my wish. The Verstappen bet not only came off, it never looked in real doubt. Modest little win to round off a very good season from a sporting and betting perspective. Off the line it was formation flying for almost everyone. Nobody crashed into anyone else, the only real change was Leclerc slipping back a spot behind his team mate (not great for the Monegasque as he was on the medium and his team mate, for the final time, had the hards on). Verstappen effortlessly eased away from the Mercedes and Hamilton was never in Bottas’ DRS window when that became active. It was at this point that the one interesting thing permitted at each race in Abu Dhabi occurred: Perez, who had been making solid progress carving through the field, suffered a car failure and had to pull over. This brought out a VSC and practically everyone except Ricciardo and the Ferraris pitted. The VSC then became an actual safety car. Vers

And so we come to the final qualifying session of a very odd F1 season. Q1 was not very odd, however. Both Haas and Williams left at this stage, as did Raikkonen. Q2 was rather more peculiar. Perez didn’t bother setting a time due to his engine penalty (he starts last but one, only Fittipaldi behind him). Giovinazzi and Vettel also failed to progress. Quite unexpectedly, both Renaults failed to make the top 10, Ocon ahead of Ricciardo. This may not be so bad, as a single stop from starting on mediums could be the optimal approach. Speaking of which the Mercedes, Leclerc, Verstappen, and Sainz all set their Q2 times on medium tyres and progressed, so will start on those same tyres. Soft starters include Norris, the AlphaTauris, Stroll, and Albon. In Q3 the first runs had Bottas fastest, ahead of Verstappen, Hamilton, and Albon, that quartet covered by a tenth and a half. The third row was a McLaren duel, Sainz two-tenths ahead of Norris (but on fresh rather than used rubber).

I’m glad Hamilton’s alright but I rather wish he’d missed this race. Before his announced return, Ladbrokes had Russell, Bottas, and Verstappen all 2.87 for the win. Hamilton is now 1.36, with Bottas and Verstappen 6. Hoping Ferrari and Red Bull (and others) can make a significant leap forward next year so things are tighter more often at the sharp end. Leclerc has a 3 place grid penalty from the last race, when he was deemed to have caused a collision. In addition, Magnussen and Perez both have power unit changes so they’ll likely start from the back of the grid. In first practice, Verstappen was fastest, three-hundredths up on Bottas. Ocon was next but 1.1s down the road. Albon, Hamilton, and Stroll followed, with Perez, Kvyat, Gasly, and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10. Bottas has had strong first practice sessions in the latter half of the year which may paint the Red Bull in a favourable light. Second practice saw Bottas fastest, two-tenths ahead of his team mate and seven

Well, bugger me with a fishfork. That was a season in a race. The bet came off, but bloody hell it was dramatic. A lot happened, so forgive me if I misremember details. Off the line Bottas had a trademark bad start. Verstappen got away well but found himself the filling in a Mercedes sandwich and had to back off. Russell, meanwhile, leapt ahead of his team mate and drove off, building up a nice lead rapidly. Further back, Verstappen was keeping out of the way of Perez when Leclerc tried passing the Mexican only to tap him. Perez was put to the back of the field, the Monegasque was out of the race and Verstappen’s attempted evasive action saw him DNF as well. Cue the safety car. Perez pitted for fresh rubber and was 18 th of 18 cars. The Mercedes looked in control, and were. For now. Perez was aided by the safety car and set about hauling himself through the field. Meanwhile, Sainz, Ricciardo, and Kvyat were in high positions. Through the pit stops, an AlphaTauri undercut p

Tricky call on whether to back Russell to be top 2 in qualifying. In the end, it came off and was modestly green, but it could’ve easily been very green or red, such were the tiny margins amongst the top three drivers in qualifying. In Q1 we lost both Williams, both Haas, and Raikkonen. Aitken was within a tenth of Latifi, which is impressive given it’s his first time qualifying. Fittipaldi was further back but that’s to be expected given new parts meant grid penalties which guaranteed he’d start last anyway. Q2 was interesting in that every eliminated car was from a different team. Norris buggered things up, or his team sent him out early, and he was slowest of all. Ocon, Albon, Vettel, and Giovinazzi likewise failed to progress. I believe Q2 chaps on the medium were the Mercedes, Verstappen, Leclerc, and Ricciardo. Could be wrong, but I think that’s right. The first Q3 runs were interesting as Verstappen was fastest and Leclerc, out of nowhere, was right behind him. It turned

I was lucky to catch, minutes after the announcement, that Hamilton was to miss this race due to COVID-19. Therefore backed Verstappen and Bottas at 6 and 5.5 rapidly, before Ladbrokes could change the odds. Doubtful, given the next race is just a week later, Hamilton will be ok for that, but not impossible. This kicked off driver changes aplenty, odd for such a time of year. Russell gets a drive in a Mercedes for at least this race and perhaps the next. His place at Williams is taken by fellow Briton Jack Aitken. Meanwhile, Grosjean is replaced by Pietro Fittipaldi this weekend, with Mick Schumacher (announced as a Haas driver next year, alongside Nikita Mazepin) volunteering to take the seat next race if Grosjean cannot return in Abu Dhabi. The first session of practice had interesting results. Russell topped the session, a tenth ahead of Verstappen, with Albon just a tenth further back. Bottas could only manage fourth, over three-tenths behind his temporary team mate. The track

Well, that was a dramatic race. Unlike last week, when a bet failed due to clear misfortune, this was an evident misjudgement on my part. The Ferraris had been very close to reaching Q3 yet their qualifying performance vanished. Obviously a red bet, bit baffled by the total lack of pace. Off the line Bottas left the handbrake on and slumped to 6 th , Perez climbing to 3 rd . Vettel slid down the order, Leclerc improved. All that was overshadowed by Grosjean hitting the barriers and his car bursting into a ball of flames. The impact was such it literally tore the car into two halves. Despite it all, the Frenchman, aided by very prompt arrival of medical staff, was able to leap from the inferno and appears, at this stage, to have suffered only minor burns and possibly a broken rib. For the third time this year we had a race halted due to a red flag. Seems rather more than usual. The hour or so off allowed drivers to mend broken bits, handy for front wings for a couple of chaps, and s

There were no major upsets in qualifying but one or two cars ended up outside of expected positions, which may offer some intrigue for the race tomorrow. Q1 was eminently predictable with both Haas, both Alfa Romeos, and Latifi all failing to progress. Q2 had an early surprise. Before anyone could put in a lap time, but after almost everyone had taken much life out of their medium tyres (AlphaTauri alone were on the red soft tyres), Sainz’s rear wheel went on strike and he found himself spun around and his car unable to move. Cue the red flag, just for a little while. This put the Spaniard down to 15 th with lower possible if he takes a penalty. Also eliminated were both Ferraris, Vettel ahead of Leclerc (miraculous how the German has suddenly become competitive when Binotto isn’t attending races…), the oddly slow Stroll, and Russell. In the first runs of Q3 Verstappen split the Mercedes, Hamilton leading, but this did not last. The Briton duly took his 432 nd career pole, with

Just a quick reminder ahead of time that whilst we have two races at this venue the circuit layouts will be different from one race weekend to the next. That’s not to say there won’t be useful guidance for the next race from this one, but the circuits will not be identical. This is the first of three races on the bounce, so if a driver gets COVID-19 here they could miss out on a lot of points. In earth-shattering news, Hamilton led Bottas at the top of the first practice time sheet. Perez was next up, half a second down the road and two-hundredths ahead of Sainz, with Gasly in close contention and Verstappen a couple of tenths further back. Albon, Ocon, Stroll, and Ricciardo rounded out the top 10. Second practice had the same chap fastest but this time Verstappen was next, albeit a third of a second off Hamilton’s pace. Bottas was less than a tenth and Perez just over a tenth behind, with Ricciardo hot on the Mexican’s heels. Gasly, Norris, Stroll, Kvyat and Albon followed. Al

Well. It’s hard to know where to start with that. The race was thoroughly entertaining, with drama throughout and a red sting in the tail near the end. Both bets were red, one a bit unluckily, but some longer term bets well-served by the result for various teams and drivers. The track was very wet. Everyone save the Williams began on wet tyres. Off the line it seemed the ‘dirty’ (even) side of the track was poorly served, except for Hamilton who made great progress off the line. The Racing Points retained their 1-2, with Verstappen losing half a dozen places before making up a couple because Ricciardo and Ocon collided, massively slowing the Aussie and spinning the Frenchman. Vettel charged up the order and Leclerc slid back down. Bottas also spun at the first corner, his debut of at least a quartet of gyrating misadventures. The Racing Points charged off, Verstappen tried to pass Vettel, and couldn’t, and calamity reigned as multiple drivers missed corners or had little off-tr

Well, that grid is quite unexpected. Having ruined Perez’s result with a strategic failure, this time Racing Point benefited by Red Bull cocking up. Pole for Stroll! In Q1 it was very wet indeed. So wet, in fact, that it was red flagged for quite a while. Both Grosjean and Latifi ended up beaching their cars. Double waved yellows for Latifi annoyed Magnussen who felt his competitors didn’t slow down.  Unsurprisingly, we lost both Williams, both Haas, and Kvyat, whom I believe spun on what would’ve been his fastest lap. We were still pretty much in wet tyre territory for the second part of qualifying, which featured a potential blocking by Sainz on Perez (this is being referred to the stewards). I was a bit surprised Gasly was slowest of them all, with both McLarens and both Ferraris out. Q3 went a bit differently. Verstappen had been literally seconds ahead of everyone else. He and the others went out on inters… except for Racing Point. And Perez was just two-tenths off Verstappe

Excitingly, a Saudi Arabian night race is now set for November next year. One waits with bated breath for the moral prognostications from the sport to find out if political opinions are something for the US, or if they apply to Saudi Arabia too (and China, Russia, etc). Mind you, plenty of lawyers, journalists, and teachers have been imprisoned in Turkey as well. That’ll be it for the politics this weekend, but I felt it’d be remiss not to mention the hypocritical bullshit of the sport. The full 2021 calendar, currently is set to be: Australia, Bahrain, China, TBC, Spain, Monaco, Azerbaijan, Canada, France, Austria, UK, Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Russia, Singapore, Japan, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi. That’s 23 in total with Vietnam perhaps being nixed. Turkey’s actually a pretty good circuit, and until the Circuit of the Americas was the best modern track, probably. Russell will be starting from the back due to grid penalties for taking new bits.

Not a classic, but it did have its moments. One bet failed, one succeeded (just), so green overall. Off the line Hamilton was slow and Verstappen fast, with the Dutchman taking the Briton’s place. Gasly came close, but that was as good as his race got as he very early on had to retire for safety reasons, which is a tremendous shame given how well he’s been driving all weekend. The top three cruised away from the field who were relatively close, but passing, even with DRS, was very difficult. Perez, naturally, ran longer his rivals Ricciardo, Leclerc, Albon, and Kvyat. This paid dividends when they emerged behind Magnussen, who had spun early on, and were held up long enough for the Mexican, who started on medium tyres, to pit and emerge ahead of them. Once other late stoppers such as Raikkonen, Vettel, and Latifi pitted, Perez was 4 th , 8s ahead of Ricciardo. At the sharp end, Verstappen and Bottas pitted, the Finn coming out ahead, despite damage to his car from the second lap.

And so to qualifying. Would it be dramatically unpredictable? Would Mercedes dominate the front row?   Q3 went more or less to script, with both Alfa Romeos, Latifi, and both Haas exiting at this stage. Russell got out with relative ease and multiple drivers, including Bottas, Albon, and Raikkonen, had lap times deleted for exceeding track limits. Q2 had some more surprises. Initially the Mercedes, Ferraris, and Red Bulls all went out on medium tyres. But things starting going wrong for most of the drivers. Verstappen’s car lost power (turned out to be a wonky spark plug) and he had to box whilst the mechanics frantically attempted to mend the problem. Vettel was too slow, and Leclerc wasn’t exactly safe either (I believe both had to swap onto the soft tyres and that still wasn’t enough for the German). Albon, meanwhile, continued his bad habit of getting laps deleted for exceeding track limits. After it all shook out, Perez ended up 11 th , which isn’t a bad spot given projected d

Next year we have Saudi Arabia on the provisional calendar. Looking forward to Hamilton et al. protesting about the human rights there, or the concentration camps in China. Alfa Romeo have confirmed they’re keeping their drivers for next year, after some speculation that Mick Schumacher might get a seat with them. Also, Russell's been confirmed at Williams despite some rumours his seat might have gone to Perez. There’s only one practice session, of an hour and a half, at this third Italian race of the year. The Red Bull looked pretty good during practice, but at the end of the session Hamilton was fastest by three-tenths, ahead of Verstappen with Bottas a further two-tenths back. There was then a gap of about half a second to Gasly, (AlphaTauri looking good this weekend), who was just ahead of Leclerc. Ricciardo and Ocon followed, ahead of Kvyat, Albon and Stroll, but the midfield is going to be very tight indeed. The track’s tight and passing may be tricky so bear that in

An unexpected and exciting start, with many tight battles and good performances lower down, whilst the sharp end dissolved into predictable tedium, alas. The bet came off, if hedged. Slightly surprised by that, but there we are. Off the line it was, frankly, bizarre. Hamilton started badly and was soon passed by Bottas. Verstappen had a poor start and low a few places. Hamilton then got passed by Sainz, whose soft tyres were working much better off the start than the medium of the Mercedes, and the Spaniard then passed Bottas and trotted off into the lead. Further back, Leclerc slumped to 8 th from 4 th and Raikkonen roared up into 6 th . Not to mention (although I am) Verstappen gave Perez a nudge which punted the Mexican around and put him last of all. Gosh. Fortunately for my bet, and unfortunately for those who like exciting contests for the win, the medium tyre then started to work. The Mercedes chased and passed Sainz, who spent the next few laps falling prey to various o

And that’s why I don’t really bet on qualifying. Bottas ahead throughout practice and qualifying until the last moment when the talented but tediously predictable Hamilton got pole. Impressive, but not exciting. Q3 was mostly as you’d expect with Latifi slowest and both Haas and Alfa Romeos departing. However, Russell did well to escape. Q2 had a few interesting notes. Late on Ricciardo, having reached the top 10, went off the track and had a minor collision with a barrier. However, this necessitated a rear wing change and he was unable to participate in Q3. The Ferraris and Mercedes set their best times with the medium tyre which bodes well for them, except Vettel who ended up slowest and eliminated. Russell was also unable to progress but may feel pleased to qualify 14 th , with Kvyat, Stroll, and Ocon ahead of him. In Q1 it was Bottas fastest, then Verstappen, then Hamilton, until the Briton impressed and bored in equal measure by taking yet another pole. Leclerc qualified 4 t

  In surprising news, Haas is to drop both its drivers for financial reasons. Coincidentally, this may also lead to a driver lineup that crashes less frequently. Also, there are rumours Perez might be off to Williams next year. If I were Red Bull and had an Albon/Perez choice, not sure I’d be sticking. There remain, of course, open Haas seats, though I’m not sure what Perez’s financial situation is. In first practice Bottas was quickest yet again, a third of a second ahead of his team mate. Verstappen was next but four-tenths off Hamilton, with Leclerc, Albon, and Sainz following closely. Perez, Raikkonen, Ricciardo, and Gasly rounded out the top 10. Second practice also had Bottas top, six-tenths ahead of Verstappen, with Norris two-tenths further back. Leclerc, Sainz, and Vettel were next, raising the possibility of a Ferrari-McLaren tussle for best of the rest. Gasly, Hamilton, Ocon, and Albon followed. Bottas was also fastest in third practice, a whole two-hundredths ahead

An interesting race, mildly profitable, and I’ll take that. Off the line Bottas and Verstappen both started slowly, unsure if that was due to the side of the track or a coincidence. Bottas lost a place to Hamilton but fought back to reclaim it, and Verstappen skilfully fended off Leclerc to retain his position. Early on it was largely as expected, formation flying from the top three as they opened a gap to the rest of the field. Hulkenberg and Norris had both made good starts with Ocon falling further back. The top three stayed nice and close together until Bottas’ tyres started going off. Then he locked up and Hamilton passed him and he pitted early. Almost as soon as he emerged from the pit lane he developed a massive power loss and was forced to box and retire. Not great, and not his fault. Raikkonen and Russell were in close proximity, and then too close for comfort with the Finn locking up and colliding with the Briton. This caused a puncture and suspension damage, necessitated a

Ha, I felt like a banana for not backing Verstappen at 9 then he ended up slightly disappointing to start only 3 rd on the grid, having been in provisional pole position. Still sitting very pretty for the race, however. Hulkenberg got thrown in at the deep end of qualifying and was, perhaps unsurprisingly, slowest of all. Hard to criticise him for this given the acute lack (ie none) of practice beforehand. Off chance of points in the race due to a combination of his experience and the car being pretty good, but odds against. Both Williams and Raikkonen failed to progress, as did Grosjean. In Q2 Magnussen was the slowest of the eliminated drivers, with Giovinazzi faster than the Dane (and his Finnish team mate). Rumours of Mick Schumacher may be looming large in the Italian’s mind, but it’s driving him to go faster, if so. Both Gasly and Kvyat were likewise unable to advance and Vettel was fastest of those departing at this stage. The Ferrari is, however, looking a shade faster tha

The last race wasn’t covered at all by me due to having no internet connection. In somewhat surprising news, Honda have announced they’re withdrawing after next year leaving Red Bull and AlphaTauri without engine suppliers for 2022 and beyond. In more surprising and worse news, the idiots in charge of F1 have abandoned the excellent Interlagos circuit (probably my favourite on the calendar) and will instead shortly be having the Brazilian Grand Prix at a new circuit. The current site is full of pesky rainforest, but don’t worry, they’ll soon cut that down to needlessly create a track almost certainly far inferior to Interlagos. Morons. Both first and second practice were cancelled due to rain and fog. Stroll wasn’t feeling well and so didn’t make a third practice appearance. Racing Point’s qualifying plans will be confirmed after practice. Hulkenberg may return. Tricky for teams to pack all their practice into a single hour, especially for the single driver Racing Point. Bo

Not too many surprises in qualifying, though Verstappen was closer than expected and the Renaults discovered some pace. Gasly was the fastest chap to be eliminated in Q1, ahead of Giovinazzi, both Williams, and Magnussen.  Q2 saw some big names drop, though it’s no longer surprising to say farewell to a Ferrari at this stage. Vettel qualified a mere 14 th , ahead of Grosjean and behind Norris, Kvyat, and Raikkonen. As usual, midfield times are very competitive. Hamilton was half a tenth ahead of Bottas after the first runs in Q3, but there were no real improvements, save for Leclerc, as Ocon’s Renault stopped working on track and almost nobody else had the chance to go faster. Verstappen did narrow the gap a bit and was a few tenths off pole in 3 rd . However, the Mercedes hates traffic, and high temperatures, so maybe the Red Bull will stand a chance in the race. Albon lines up alongside his team mate, and Leclerc managed to put his Ferrari into 5 th , which is rather above expe

Italy again, for the second of three races this season. In not especially shocking but still significant news, Vettel has signed for Aston Martin next year which means that Perez is likely out of the sport unless he can find safe harbour somewhere soon. Rather sad to see as he’s a talented chap (reminds me a bit of Hulkenberg not being around any more). Having watched a bit of practice, the circuit looks narrow and fairly twisty, excepting one long straight. That makes me think overtaking will be hard almost all race, the main place being the straight but only early on as following another car through the twisty stuff is hard. In addition, it sounds like the heat and the track are making tyres, especially the soft, churn badly, so this may be like the second British or Belgian races. There also isn’t much forgiveness, so going a few feet off track meant hitting gravel and/or the wall in many places. Ricciardo’s tyres were great towards the end of Spa, whereas the Mercedes and Red

Well, that was a chaotic but entertaining race. Hamilton drove off fine but Bottas had an atrocious start, getting passed by Sainz immediately, then Norris, then Perez, then Ricciardo. Phenomenally bad from the Finn. But not as bad as things got for Ferrari. Vettel’s brakes failed, necessitating a DNF. Later, Magnussen car also stopped working and he was forced to pull over by the pits. The safety car emerged and the pit lane entry was closed but that didn’t stop Hamilton and Giovinazzi pitting. Both ended up with 10s stop and go penalties. Just after Magnussen’s car stopped working, Leclerc lost control on the final corner and ploughed into a barrier. This ultimately brought out a red flag. Cars that had either pitted earlier (Gasly) or not at all (Stroll) benefited greatly, and Hamilton’s huge penalty of 30s or so ended up putting him at the back once the re-start, off the grid, occurred. Stroll buggered things up and Gasly inherited the lead, with Raikkonen and Giovinazzi (who had t

Qualifying was somewhat farcical, though not quite as hilariously stupid as last year. It was the same old story at the sharp end but some of the competitive midfield were rather tasty. The race could be very good. Except at the front. Probably. In Q1 the cars predictably all get sent out at the same time to try and take advantage of the fabled slipstream and most ended up buggering themselves. Vettel ended up leaving at this stage, as did Grosjean, Giovinazzi, and both Williams.  Q2 saw much the same nonsense, the Mercedes (perhaps surprisingly setting fast times on the soft rather than medium tyres) cruising serenely at the sharp end whilst the rest scrambled in their wake. Kvyat, Ocon, Leclerc, Raikkonen, and Magnussen all left proceedings here. In Q3, the Mercedes went out early for the second run, helping the rest of the field to avoid idiocy and everyone got a decent shot at a lap. Kudos to the top team. Hamilton was fastest by half a second ahead of Bottas, and a very impr

Williams are no longer in F1. The family has stepped back from the team, marking an end, after this race weekend, to the days of individuals and families such as Sauber, Jordan, and Brabham. A rather sad day. They’d been down on their luck for a long time despite rare resurgences such as the 2012 Maldonado victory in Spain and a strong initial season under the new rules. Hiring Paddy Lowe managed to make the slowest team on the grid go backwards, and they’ve been propping up the table for some time now, but I can still remember the glory days of Damon Hill. The team remains and will stay under the Williams name, for now, at least. Also, this weekend marks the end of engine mode changes, which may affect things a bit. First practice had, shockingly, the Mercedes fastest. Bottas was top, a quarter second ahead of Hamilton, who had half a second over Albon. Kvyat was next, surprisingly, with Verstappen, Gasly, Perez, Norris, Ricciardo, and Sainz rounding out the top 10. Verstappen cra