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Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis 2019

Not the most thrilling race, for the most part, but it was green, which is nice. Off the line the Ferraris started well, and got very close to Verstappen. Leclerc managed to get past the Dutchman, who found himself fending off Vettel. Further down the field Gasly got tagged by someone (perhaps Stroll) and had to immediately pit and get a fresh nose. This took an age, and he was last by a country mile after the first lap. At the sharp end Hamilton cruised off into the distance, where his own trouble was deciding at which restaurant he would celebrate his latest triumph (as an aside, I expect my bet on him to beat Schumacher’s win total to come off next season). Bottas quickly got up to about 15 th or so, having started dead last, but mysterious reasons meant nobody could use DRS for the first quarter of the race, and he got bottled up for a while behind a Racing Point. He eventually made headway and the miraculous reappearance of DRS then helped him out for the rest

Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2019

Unfortunately it was the same old story in Q1, with Kubica slowest of all and Russell just ahead of him. Worth noting the actual back of the grid will see Bottas starting last due to his new engine. Both Alfas also failed to progress, as did Grosjean. In Q2, Magnussen was slowest, meaning he starts just ahead of his team mate. Both Racing Points and Toro Rossos also failed to progress (Renault will be pleased to get both their cars into the top 10, which may help them in their inter-team battle). I believe that Ferrari did something interesting, with Vettel starting on the soft and Leclerc possibly starting on the medium tyre (unsure if he qualified on that or the soft). Given how crumbly the soft is, especially on the Ferrari, that’s a very counter-intuitive choice. Hamilton seemed faster on the first run in Q3, and so it proved. Bottas will start last but qualified with a time second only to his team mate. Verstappen will line up alongside Hamilton on the grid, which coul

Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying 2019

Almost immediately after putting up the post-race analysis for Brazil, Hamilton received a 5s penalty for the Albon collision, promoting Sainz to his first ever podium position and putting the Briton down to 6 th . For this weekend, Bottas starts at the back due to taking a new engine. Mr. Sandpit has suggested backing him for a podium, which seems a reasonably good idea. In first practice, the Finn was fastest, half a second ahead of Verstappen, who was narrowly faster than Hamilton. Albon, Vettel, Grosjean, and Leclerc followed, with Magnussen, Giovinazzi, and Hulkenberg rounding out the top 10. Bottas also topped the second session, a third of a second ahead of Hamilton. Leclerc and Vettel weren’t far behind, and Verstappen was following closely. Albon, Grosjean, Perez, Kvyat, and Gasly were next. Third practice saw Verstappen fastest but with both Hamilton and Bottas within a tenth. Albon was over a third of a second off his team mate, but narrowly ahead of Vett

Brazil: post-race analysis 2019

The race was quite interesting towards the end. The bet failed, and never looked like coming off, but given how topsy-turvy the last few laps were it easily could’ve. A lot happened, so do forgive me if I get one or two details wrong. Off the line Vettel was passed by Hamilton, but otherwise it was formation flying. Leclerc began devouring those ahead of him with little effort, and within perhaps a dozen laps was behind Albon. Hamilton was within a few seconds of Verstappen and pitted first, switching to fresh softs (as did Verstappen). The Dutchman exited the pits behind the Englishman but took no time at all to retake his leading role. There was interesting strategic differentiation, with Vettel and Albon (then 3 rd and 5 th ) on medium tyres, and Bottas and Leclerc (4 th and 6 th ) on the hard. Ricciardo locked up trying to pass Magnussen and ended up spinning the Dane and buggering his own front wing, necessitating a pit stop and a 5s penalty. Hamilton never q

Brazil: pre-race 2019

Qualifying was a little unexpected, for me, at least. The first session had the usual departures of the Williams, and the more surprising exit of Sainz, who suffered a reliability failure. Kvyat and Stroll also failed to make the cut. In Q2 it was as competitive as ever. Norris was a hundredth off Raikkonen, but couldn’t progress, whereas the Finn did. Behind Norris were Ricciardo, Giovinazzi, Hulkenberg and Perez. The first runs in the final part of qualifying had Verstappen top dog, eight-thousandths ahead of Vettel, Leclerc being next. On the final run only two of chaps at the sharp end could improve, Verstappen extending his triumph by a tenth, and Hamilton nudging ahead of Leclerc (who has a grid penalty of 10 places in any event). Bottas and Albon will be behind this year’s champion, followed by Gasly, Grosjean, Raikkonen, and Magnussen. The weather should be dry. Leclerc, as mentioned, has a 10 place grid penalty. Sainz races despite not setting a qualifying

Brazil: pre-qualifying 2019

Leclerc has a new power unit, so he’ll face a grid penalty. First practice was mixed (wets, inters, and slicks), and saw Albon achieve the distinction of being fastest and having a crash. Bottas was half a second off the Thai, with Vettel a few tenths further back and a similar margin ahead of Leclerc. Sainz was best of the rest, ahead of Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, with Gasly, Kvyat, and Norris rounding out the top 10. [Hamilton only completed a couple of laps]. Vettel was fastest in second practice, two-hundredths ahead of Leclerc. Verstappen was a tenth further back, two-hundredths ahead of Bottas, who was less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Less than a quarter of a second covered them all. Magnussen was seven-tenths down the road, ahead of Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Albon and Sainz. Unfortunately the way the timings work out make it unlikely I’ll be able to be online between final practice and qualifying, so no tip. Also, the pre-race ramble will probably be up tomorrow

USA: post-race analysis 2019

Quite a good race, with some excitement at the end, but the main reason it’ll be remembered is that it was the scene of Hamilton’s sixth title triumph. On the betting front, the blog bet did not come off (although if you followed the earlier tip that did). Before the race began Red Bull replaced Verstappen’s rear wing after noticing, on the out lap, that it had a fracture. Off the line the right hand (odd) side had good starts. By coincidence or not, this meant the Ferraris had poor starts, with Verstappen passing Vettel immediately. At the first corner Albon and Sainz came together, necessitating a first lap pit stop (the first of three, I think) for the Thai. Vettel was bizarrely slow and got passed by his team mate, and then Hamilton, with seemingly little effort. He then fell prey to Norris and Ricciardo, complaining on the radio of his car understeering like crazy, which was especially strange because he did not appear to have had any contact with anyone. The top t

USA: pre-race 2019

Ha. Well, don’t I feel like a banana. I even backed Bottas with a £1 free bet, then thought to check his recent form at the Circuit of the Americas and decided I’d been stupid. Anyway, the 13 shot got pole. Good for him. The penalty meant Perez wasn’t really trying too hard in the first session and left during it, as did both Williams and both Alfa Romeos. Q2 was rather more competitive with Hulkenberg a tenth off Gasly and fastest of those eliminated. But as Perez showed last weekend, 11 th is far from the worst position. Magnussen and Kvyat followed (the Russian just a hundredth off the Dane) with Stroll and Grosjean the slowest of the departees. In Q3 the first run saw mistakes from Vettel and Verstappen, putting them a hundredth and half a tenth behind surprise fastest chap Bottas. Leclerc was behind them, with Hamilton a lacklustre 5 th , three-tenths off his team mate. The track had been rubbering in all of qualifying, yet seemed to have hit its peak as practical

USA: pre-qualifying 2019

It’s being suggested there’ll be a cost cap for 2021, but teams will be able to spend money in 2020 towards the 2021 car, operating under a substantially new rule set. As we’ve seen with Vettel and Hamilton, a critical head start under a new set of rules can lead to multiple title victories. Because Red Bull have lagged currently and haven’t been in a genuine title fight for years, I suspect they’ll shift more resources than their rivals into the 2021 car and it might be an advantage for them and Verstappen. Ferrari/Mercedes could be distracted by contending for the 2020 title. Pre-practice I backed/tipped Verstappen at 10, each way (fifth the odds top 3), on the basis that was just too long given his unexpected performance at Mexico a week ago. Of course, that might have been due to the altitude, so we’ll see. Verstappen topped first practice. He was a tenth and a half ahead of Vettel, with Albon third. Gasly was seven-tenths behind, followed by Ricciardo and Grosjean. Lec

Mexico: post-race analysis 2019

Well, the Mexican Grand Prix was a lot more entertaining than I expected, and as profitable as I could’ve hoped for. Both bets came off, helped (one in particular) with rather a lot of good luck. Off the line Leclerc did well to fend off Vettel, who cut across Hamilton. The Briton and Verstappen collided, putting Hamilton a few places back and Verstappen even further down the field. The prime beneficiary was Albon, who was, I think, right behind Leclerc and Vettel. Verstappen set about passing those ahead of him, but had contact with Bottas and suffered a puncture. It was a long way back to the pits, although he did shed some weight when most of a tyre went walkies. The Dutchman ended up plumb last and the virtual safety car emerged (although the real one never made an appearance). It all looked set fair for the Ferraris. They were 1 and 2, with Verstappen (who ended up having sufficient pace to indicate he would’ve been a real contender for the win) relegated to the

Mexico: pre-race 2019

The start of qualifying was, frankly, rather predictable. The end was not, in a number of ways. In the first part of qualifying the Williams were slowest, with the Haas once again unable to make the tyres work (the soft tyres are looking extremely crumbly this time around). Stroll, again, failed to escape as well. In Q2 Perez was the fastest of those eliminated, which isn’t a bad place to start given the four ahead of him will, I think, be on the crumbly cheese soft tyres and Perez is talented at making his tyres last a long time. Medium/hard tyres to start with and a one stop (either one or two could work) seems the order of the day. Behind him are Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, and then Raikkonen and Giovinazzi. Would the Ferraris be as unstoppable as we all thought? No. Verstappen put in the fastest lap on the first run, surprisingly. Bottas was last of the top teams’ drivers, behind Albon. And on the second run the Finn over-egged the cake and ended up slamming into the

Mexico: pre-qualifying 2019

Note from last race: post-race Leclerc got a 15s penalty (5s for the collision with Verstappen and 10s for continuing to drive unsafely). This put him down one place to 7 th and promoted Ricciardo to 6 th . Note 2: both Renaults have been disqualified from the last race. Promoting Leclerc again. Excitingly, they were disqualified for something deemed legal, but also a driver aid. Er… (braking system, I think with some remote fiddling). Mr. Sandpit has helpfully pointed out the device is legal but the manner of its usage was not, so thanks to him for clarifying the situation. In first practice Hamilton was fastest, a tenth ahead of Leclerc and Verstappen. Half a second further back was Albon, Bottas close behind. Vettel was next, then came Sainz, Gasly, Kvyat, and Giovinazzi. Second practice had Vettel top of the time sheet, a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Leclerc was a few tenths further back, followed by Bottas and Hamilton. Kvyat and Gasly came next, with Sainz, Hulk

Japan: post-race analysis 2019

The bet failed (in the dry, Japan tends to have few DNFs, which I’d forgotten) but the race was entertaining. Not only was there no drizzle, it looked bright and sunny. A look at the grid, given we didn’t know it beforehand: Vettel and Leclerc were the front row, followed by Bottas and Hamilton. Verstappen and Albon (who set identical qualifying times) were next, then Sainz, and then I can’t recall off the top of my head. Vettel had a false start but managed to stop very quickly and seemingly didn’t trip the sensor. It seems he won’t get any penalty. However, he did cock up the start, Leclerc wasn’t hot either, and Bottas and Verstappen had good getaways. The Finn took the lead and Verstappen was in the process of passing Leclerc round the outside of a corner when the Monegasque collided with the side of the Dutchman’s car. This caused a lot of damage to the Red Bull, necessitated a pit stop, led to a significant lack of pace and, ultimately, retirement. The front wing of L

Japan: pre-qualifying and pre-race 2019

Nice sporting scene in Japan, with the Rugby World Cup and now their Grand Prix. Or it would be, if it weren’t for the typhoon bearing down on both events, causing match cancellations and the probable delay and potential cancellation of F1 qualifying. If that happens (and thanks to Mr. B from PB for letting me know) then the second practice results would put Bottas on pole. As it stands, qualifying is planned for Sunday morning, 2am UK time. The race start is scheduled for 6.10am. It seems the main concern for qualifying isn’t actually bad weather but clearing up the effects of the bad weather. In first practice Bottas was fastest, less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Vettel was nearly a second down the road, ahead of Leclerc, with Verstappen ahead of Albon. Sainz then broke the Noah’s Ark procession, leading Perez and Stroll, with Norris rounding out the top 10. The second practice results/potential starting grid were as follows: Bottas, Hamilton (the Finn a tenth ahe

Russia: post-race analysis 2019

I had a hard time calling bets, but my tip luckily came off. The long run to the first corner coupled with Ferrari power and a great start from Vettel to propel the German into leading the first lap. Off the line Vettel took off like a shot, benefiting from Leclerc’s slipstream to grab the lead. Further back there was Ricciardo contact with Grosjean, leading to the Aussie making his painfully slow way back to the pits and a safety car before the first lap ended. The Frenchman was out of the race (his DNF odds were 3, for those wondering). After the safety car departed Vettel pulled away and was plainly faster than Leclerc, who made a small gap to Hamilton. The Monegasque complained and was told over the radio that Vettel would pull over. At this stage the gap to Hamilton was only a couple of seconds. Vettel, understandably, suggested he would not be handing over the place as he was both faster off the line and on race pace. He recommended his team mate closed the gap.

Russia: pre-race 2019

Qualifying went more or less as expected, with Leclerc getting pole, again, and Hamilton pipping Vettel, again. Because Kvyat changed just about everything he starts from the back and didn’t waste petrol trundling around. In Q1, Albon overcooked his entry speed to a corner, the car snapped around and he slammed arse-first into the barriers, ending his session. Ahead of these two were the Williams, and Raikkonen. Q2 was tight, with Gasly, Perez, Giovinazzi, Magnussen, and Stroll eliminated. That means both Renaults and McLarens progressed, as did Grosjean. Everybody expected Leclerc to easily get pole. And he did. By four-tenths. Vettel cocked up his second run and the failure to improve allowed Hamilton to snatch 2 nd on the grid by two-hundredths. Verstappen qualified 4 th but won’t start there (he and Gasly have 5 place grid penalties for fiddling with engine stuff. Albon would’ve had likewise had he not binned his car). Bottas was next fastest, a second off

Russia: pre-qualifying 2019

The big off-track news is that from 2021 to at least 2024 McLaren will once more be taking their engines from Mercedes. Slightly surprised given the advances made by Renault, but this is a step forward for the team, who are already topping the midfield. Good news for Sainz and Norris too, with not much movement expected at the big three, and a significant rule change coming in 2021 which might see McLaren on the podium once more. In unexpected news, Toro Rosso wants to be called Alpha Tauri from next season (unsure if it’s with or without a space). With approval from other teams, it can happen (although two Alpha/Alfa teams is a little odd. Reminds one of the Lotus/Lotus times). In first practice it wasn’t necessarily flabbergasting to see Leclerc top of the time sheet. Verstappen was within a tenth, with Vettel half a second off his team mate. Two-tenths back was Bottas, a similar margin ahead of his team mate, Hamilton closely followed by Albon (nearly a second off Versta

Singapore: post-race analysis 2019

Well, the bet was red. Mild misjudgement, basically. The race itself could not be called a classic, although there were a few moments of interest to note. Off the line it was formation flying from the top 6 (Leclerc, Hamilton, Vettel, Verstappen, Bottas, Albon). Further back Hulkenberg tried a pass on Sainz that wasn’t on (there was a gap but it was always going to close), damaging the German’s prospects and causing quite a lot of harm to Sainz’s (the Spaniard ended up dead last, even 30s or so behind the Williams). Then we had about 18 laps of Leclerc trundling around like a grandma with a broken zimmer frame. The top 6, far from breaking away, were a couple of seconds ahead of whoever was 7 th (might’ve been Norris). Ricciardo, who started at the back of the grid due to a tiny technical infringement in qualifying, provided some relief from the procession, as he set about passing backmarkers and midfield chaps with gay abandon. Nobody could pit because Leclerc’