United States: pre-qualifying 2016
Hulkenberg is off to
Renault. Makes Palmer’s situation look shakier than an octogenarian
tightrope walker, and Magnussen’s not safe either (rumour has it
Renault also want Bottas). The move also opens up a seat at Force
India, with some speculating Wehrlein or Ocon could get the gig.
In the short term this
may mean Hulkenberg not scoring as much but I think long-term it’s
a wise risk to take. Force India really do punch above their weight
but without a cash injection it’s hard to see them competing
regularly for wins. In a couple of years, especially with new rules
changes, Renault might.
In other intriguing
news, machinations may be afoot at McLaren. Ron Dennis’ contract is
up soon and may not be renewed due to shareholders. Of which there
are three. One is him (25%), another is the Bahraini Royal Family
(50%) and Mansour Ojjeh has the final 25%. It’s believed the latter
two are intended not to renew the contract.
Excitingly, this could
pave a way back for McLaren nice chap Martin Whitmarsh or, even
better, Ross Brawn (who recently wrote in a book to be out for
Christmas* that he left Mercedes because he couldn’t trust Wolff
and Lauda). Another, more tedious, possibility would be Justin King
getting the gig.
*Importantly, my own
book Kingdom Asunder should be out before Christmas. And I need the
money more, so buy mine first.
In first practice,
Hamilton led Rosberg by three-tenths, with Verstappen over a second a
half down the road. Raikkonen, Hulkenberg and Bottas were next, with
Ricciardo, Vettel, Kvyat and Sainz rounding out the top 10.
In second practice,
things were rather tighter. Rosberg was two-tenths faster than
Ricciardo, with Hamilton next up. Vettel was half a second back,
ahead of Verstappen, with Hulkenberg, Perez, Button, Alonso and
Raikkonen next.
At this stage, the Red
Bull (especially on race pace) appears close to the Mercedes. If they
qualify well or a Silver Arrow starts badly, then this could bode
very well for the Red Bull. Ferrari seem very much in third place.
Worth also recalling
that Hamilton has won three of the last four races here. If he cannot
narrow the gap to his team mate here, of all places, things will look
ominous for his title prospects.
Ahead of third
practice, Mercedes broke curfew to work on Hamilton’s car,
replacing the fuel system which had a minor irregularity.
Verstappen was fastest
in third practice, three-tenths up on Ricciardo. Raikkonen was next,
with Hamilton and Rosberg next up. Vettel, Hulkenberg, Bottas, Button
and Alonso rounded out the top 10.
Rosberg didn’t set a
qualifying simulation run, though. He did most of a lap (was slower
than Verstappen in the first sector, purple in the second, but a
little behind overall) before pitting. Hamilton was slightly held up
by Nasr, who was also on a fast lap [prompted a radio comment to the
pits: ‘really poor timing guys’]. So neither Silver Arrow set a
representative lap time.
The gap between
Hamilton and Verstappen (seven-tenths) is more or less the difference
between the soft and supersoft tyres (the other being the medium).
So... might we be in for a surprise?
The only potential bet
of interest is a four-way split, (or two each way bets), backing
Verstappen and Ricciardo to win qualifying each way at 13 (third the
odds for a top 2 finish). I do think Red Bull are looking strong for
the race but Mercedes has maintained a very powerful grip on
qualifying all year. There’s also the small but plausible
possibility that Hamilton’s engine might explode.
On balance, I decided
against the bet. Too much split. And, if all runs normally, I still
expect a Mercedes 1-2.
Qualifying is at 7pm
and the race is at 8pm.
The pre-race piece will
likely be tomorrow morning.
Morris Dancer
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