MorrisF1

No La Liga bets. I’m going to be reluctant to bet on this league given I’m green for the other three (Dec-Jan saw no Bundesliga bets) but La Liga was so red it narrowly tipped me into red overall for that period. Little irked as about half the bets were one goal from green and any single one of them would’ve made the difference, but that’s the rub of the green. In Ligue 1, I’ve laid Lille to win at home versus Clermont at 1.56 . The reason is that they’re highly similar in league position, and Lille have lost or drawn three of their last five matches (Clermont drew their last match and previously has three consecutive wins). I’ve also backed the Rennes versus Strasbourg match to have over 2.5 goals at 1.91 . This has occurred in 80% of Rennes’ home matches to date and Strasbourg has scored in all but one of their away matches. Not certain, of course, but I think worth backing. So, alas, Dec-Jan is the first red period of this season, although only by a small margin (red to the

I did check the Bundesliga a few days ago for the opening 2023 matches but nothing caught my eye, hence no blog/bets. Serie A Backed Empoli at home versus Torino at 3.35 . Home side has had some decent form of late, winning twice and drawing once in the last three matches, including an away draw against Lazio and home win against Inter Milan. Empoli and Torino have very similar overall stats but the home side, with that advantage and better recent form, looks more appealing. Not a tip, but if you have a free bet consider Roma away against Napoli at 5 or longer. Napoli do have a rock solid home record this season (no losses) but Roma are a top flight team so the odds may be a shade long. La Liga Backed Osasuna to win at home versus Atletico Madrid at 3.8 . The sides are 3 points apart so the odds seem long for a home win. I did hesitate a bit as Madrid have a very good away record (Osasuna’s home record is pretty good, winning two-thirds of the time). Recent results are

Decided to back Lazio to win at home versus AC Milan at 3.25 . At home, they have a strong record, including a win over Inter Milan, with the only defeats being to Napoli (and, weirdly, Salernitana). While there have been a couple of home draws too, Lazio are only 4 points behind AC Milan so the odds on a home win seem a little long to me. As ever, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise, and do bet at your own risk. Morris Dancer

EPL No EPL bets tickled my fancy this time around. La Liga My bets in this league have been uniformly red since the World Cup, so bear that in mind. I’ve backed Cadiz to win away at Sevilla at 5.5 . They’re similarly awful, in the relegation zone, with Cadiz just a point ahead and having marginally better recent results. At home, Sevilla have won once so far, with Cadiz winning away twice. An alternative approach would be to lay Sevilla to win. Also, had planned to lay Valencia to win at home versus Almeria. Because the market isn’t up yet on Smarkets I opted instead to split a stake evenly and back the draw and Almeria win at 3.9 and 5.5 respectively at Ladbrokes. Very similar to the above bet, except that Almeria have only managed a couple of away draws this season and no away wins to date, hence first thinking of the lay. Bundesliga Ah, the Bundesliga is back, home of almost total tipping failure. Maybe things will be better now. No tip this time. If you have a free

I’ve backed Lorient to win away at Marseille at 8.6 . The reasoning is thus: Lorient have a very tasty away record, winning five, drawing thrice, and losing just once to date. While Marseille are higher in the league the difference is just seven points. The home side has a good record, losing twice, drawing once, and winning six home matches to date. Laying Marseille at 1.44 was a tempting alternative but I think the away win offers better value. As ever, bet at your own risk. Been a bit of a dry spell lately. Morris Dancer

Well every La Liga bet was red (one goal from green in every instance). Humbug. EPL I’ve backed Manchester United to win at home versus Man City at 4.6 . While City are rightly short for a visiting side the points difference is minimal and most of that is down to United’s abysmal start to the season, since when they’ve had a very good home record. Good enough that the odds on a home win feel too long to me. Serie A, Ligue 1 Nothing caught my eye this round. La Liga Well, my form last time was atrocious, with a narrow loss for every single bet. Anyway, I’ve backed Osasuna to win away at Athletic Bilbao at 6.8 . Essentially, they’ve very close on points so the odds just look over-generous. Morris Dancer

Perused the Serie A markets but nothing caught my eye. In La Liga, I’ve laid Mallorca at 2.04 to win at home versus Real Valladolid. The two teams are comparable in the table, just a couple of points apart, and while Valladolid’s away form has been so-so at best, Mallorca have just two home wins so far. I’ve also backed over 2.5 goals in the match between Almeira and Real Sociedad at 2.14 . This has been true in 4/7 Sociedad’s away matches, and in 5/7 of Almeira’s home games this season. Marginal, but value, I think. Bit surprised to have more than two bets in a single league, but also laid Sevilla to win at home versus Getafe, at 1.83 . Despite those short odds the side has yet to win a single home match this season, while Getafe have three losses, two draws, and two wins away so far. If you have a free bet consider Osasuna away at Athletic Bilbao at 5.5 or more. Not a tip so, good or bad, won’t count in my results. As ever, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwis

It’s fair to say with one bet to go the post-break football tips have developed in a way that is not necessarily to my advantage, so take a dose of salt with the following as my recent form has been ropey. With matches so thick and fast I’m not sure I’ll be putting up results posts for a while (maybe shift to a monthly approach) but of the half dozen or so offered, all the tips of late have been red. So, not great. One possible error of mine has been looking more at overall than recent results so I’ll see if altering that shifts things a bit. EPL Laid Liverpool to beat Brentford at 1.62 . Brentford have lost a single home match to date (to Arsenal), drawing with Chelsea and Spurs and beating Manchester United (although that was, I think) during their iffy start to the season. Liverpool might come bouncing back after their comical win last time, but Brentford at home are no pushover. Serie A Backed Atalanta at 9.6 and 10 to win 1-0 or 2-0 away against Spezia (one sta