MorrisF1

As always, bets are with Smarkets unless stated otherwise. Serie A Gone for something a bit different with Atalanta versus Fiorentina and equally split one stake between a result of 1-0 and 2-0 (both Atalanta winning) at 7.8 and 9.4 respectively. Atalanta have the lowest goals for of any top five side but have only conceded thrice in seven matches. Fiorentina have goals for and against of seven and six respectively, so I think the odds are a narrow Atalanta win with a clean sheet (there’s 1.95 for them to just win if you prefer that). I’ve also backed Udinese to win away versus Verona at 2.3. Shorter odds than I’d normally take for an away win but Udinese are currently third and average over two goals a match while Verona are 17 th , have lost four out of seven matches and typically concede almost two goals a game.   Ligue 1 Just the one French bet this time: Lorient to win at home versus Lille at 2.88. Pretty basic, they’ve won 75% of matches played this season and are ahe

Pretty concise, as there’s no tips for La Liga and just one for the Bundesliga. Big health warning that my Bundesliga bets are statistically improbable when it comes to being consistently wrong. That being said, I did back under 2.5 goals between Leipzig and Bochum at 2.8. The average one might expect is 2 goals here so it’s very much a coin toss at odds a fair bit over evens. Time permitting, I’ll put up thoughts on Ligue 1 and Serie A tomorrow.   Morris Dancer  

Been a bit of a break (for F1 too, Singapore’s at the weekend) but good old kickball has returned. All bets, as usual, are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise.   I’ve backed Bournemouth to win at home versus Brentford at 3.55. After some iffy results (mostly due to playing top teams) Bournemouth are looking quite good, drawing away versus Newcastle, and winning away against Nottingham. Brentford recently (well, ish) got thumped at home by Arsenal and thrashed Leeds. Far from impossible they’ll win but the Bournemouth odds look too long to me. Another home win bet is Fulham at 3.25 to beat Newcastle. Most recent results are an away win versus Nottingham and a 2-1 away defeat to Spurs. Newcastle, meanwhile, have had two draws at home (against Palace and Bournemouth). Fulham are narrowly ahead in the table, and Newcastle haven’t won away all season, I think, whereas Fulham have performed well at home. And now for the long odds bet that may make me look silly. At 8.8 I’ve backed

La Liga With Ladbrokes, just the one bet: over 3.5 goals between the Madrids (Atletico and Real), at 3.2. Real Madrid averages 3 goals a match and Atletico 1.8. In their last away matches, Real have scored 3, 4, and 2 goals. In their home matches, Atletico have scored 4 and 0. Think this could go either way but the odds looked too long to me.   Ligue 1 Nothing caught my eye here.   Bundesliga Usual Bundesliga warning: this is far and away my worst league so even more than the other bets, follow at your own risk. I’ve backed Werder Bremen to win away at Bayer Leverkusen at 5. The home side have lost 4/6 matches so far, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses for Werder Bremen. Oddly, their away form is better with a couple of wins and a draw. At home, Bayer Leverkusen have lost all three matches so far. With Ladbrokes, I’ve backed under 3.5 goals in the Augsburg versus Bayern Munich match at 2.2. The home side have scored once in their last three matches, while the visitors

EPL Just the one bet, backing over 3.5 goals for Brentford versus Arsenal at 2.6 (at the time of writing the Ladbrokes/Smarkets price was identical so I went for the former but check the latter to see if things have improved). Surprisingly, Brentford actually have more goals for (15 against 14) but with an average of over a dozen each in half a dozen matches I think there’s a reasonable chance of this coming off.   Serie A Two bets here, and the first is with Ladbrokes (marginally better odds with boost). I backed, at 2.1, fewer than 2.5 goals to be scored between Torino and Sassuolo. In the six matches to date they have goals for of 6 and 4 respectively. With Smarkets, I backed Udinese at 4 (at home) to beat Inter Milan. Surprisingly, Udinese are higher in the table (both have four wins but Inter has lost twice to Udinese’s one draw and one loss). Udinese also has a marginally better goal difference and home advantage. Udinese’s last two results were beating mid-table Sassuo

There were no Serie A tips and the EPL bets were voided due to cancellation following the death of Her Majesty. The potential results from the EPL bets ranged from -£20 to +£51.80 and the league is far and away my best. La Liga: 2 tips, one win = +£4.4 Ligue 1: 2 tips, no wins = -£20 Bundesliga: 2 tips, no wins = -£20 Total = -£35.6 Less than stellar. One French bet was wrong by miles, the other was a goal off coming good. One of the German bets was a goal off coming good (if I’d adopted the approach taken for one of the voided bets, laying a strong away side rather than backing the home side to win, they would’ve come good, but that’s something to consider for the future). On the plus side, the goals bet I made came off, which also happened on the only previous occasion, so that’s a positive sign. Morris Dancer

  Last week I had two rotten slices of luck that buggered an otherwise well-judged 8.5 shot. This time around it was another obvious piece of misfortune with half a dozen laps to go. Ho hum. Off the line Norris left his handbrake on but recovered well to only drop a handful of places. Verstappen, meanwhile, leapt up three places on the first lap. There was always the air of an inevitable Verstappen victory, and so it proved. An early VSC enabled Leclerc to get a cheap stop but it was too early to make a one stop work. By contrast, Verstappen merrily trundled on his soft tyres and seemed unassailable. Further back, Sainz was doing great work carving through the field, and Hamilton was making slightly steadier progress. For a long time, Ricciardo led a DRS train with Gasly right behind him. The Frenchman’s undercut attempt was hamstrung by a slow stop which allowed Ricciardo to pit and retain the tantalisingly small lead. Later, DRS was broken as Hamilton made his way through the f

And so, qualifying. Which will be marmalised by half the grid having penalties. The Haas chaps were slowest of all in qualifying, and both Aston Martins were also eliminated. Ironic the team did better on a shoestring than it does today. Latifi was also eliminated meaning that his one-off team mate Nick De Vries had a rather good first ever qualifying, and that on short notice, to make Q2. Tsunoda, one of many with a penalty, did not bother running in Q2. Both Alfa Romeos departed at this stage, Bottas the faster, with De Vries in the middle. The fastest eliminated driver was Ocon, who is also subject to a penalty. On pace, Verstappen was looking typically strong but with him (and Sainz) incurring penalties starting on pole seemed natural for Leclerc. He achieved this, and clocked the fastest time to boot, beating Verstappen by a tenth and a half, with Sainz just a tenth further back. Lovely day for Ferrari at home, but we’ve seen splendid Saturdays squandered by them before. F

  RIP HM. Long live the King.   Penalties for replacing bits are likely to affect both Red Bulls, Sainz, and numerous others (maybe Hamilton as well). Leclerc led a Ferrari 1-2, less than a tenth ahead of Sainz. The Mercedes followed, Russell leading Hamilton. Verstappen was next, ahead of the Ocon-Alonso Alpine pairing. Tsunoda, Bottas, and Ricciardo completed the top 10. I tend not to watch practice but did see this session. On pace, Verstappen would’ve been fastest by a wide margin, but got held up by Norris on a high fuel run. However, he was able to run really close in the final corner which suggests the new regulations could see significantly more overtaking on the straight than we’re used to. From Mr. Sandpit (with thanks): New engines: Hamilton Verstappen Perez Tsunoda Bottas   New turbo, MGU-H Hamilton Tsunoda Bottas   New MGU-K Hamilton Sainz Tsunoda   New ES Sainz   Also, the Verstappen Red Bull (Perez’s was skinnier) had a

EPL I backed Bournemouth at home to beat Brighton at 5. Bournemouth had a terrible start to the year but this was mostly due to playing top dogs Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool. They have, however, beating Nottingham Forest (away), drawn with Wolves at home, and beaten Villa at home (matches most to least recent). Brighton, meanwhile, have away form of losing to Fulham, beating West Ham, and beating Manchester United (though this was during the Red Devils’ ‘playing terribly’ phase at the start of the season). With home advantage 5 feels too long to me. I also made a first lay bet, betting against Chelsea winning away versus Fulham at 1.85 (covering Fulham winning and a draw). Chelsea’s thrown their coach overboard, and they’ve had ropey away form, losing to Southampton, getting spanked by Leeds, and narrowly beating Everton. Fulham’s home record includes beating Brighton, beating Brentford, and drawing with Liverpool.   Edited extra bit : as an aside, I’m so sleepy/ou

Not sure how much longer I’ll have the time for these posts/bets but in the meantime here’s some wibbling about Ligue 1. I backed Clermont for an away win versus Strasbourg at 5.7. The odds just look wrong to me. So far, Clermont have three wins and three losses and stand 8 th , while Strasbourg are 18 th and in the relegation zone with four draws and two defeats to date. With Ladbrokes (and boost) I also backed Auxerre for an away win against Rennes at 7. The latter are higher in the table but have just a single point more. They’re probably favourite for the win but 7 for Auxerre just looks too long to me. Morris Dancer

A day early, because I had some time to kill, here are a few bets on the Spanish and German leagues. As always, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise. La Liga Backed Espanyol at 2.98 to win at home versus Sevilla. The latter have had a rather poor start with three losses and a draw, and scoring just thrice (conceding eight). Espanyol are so-so (a win, a draw, two losses) but their last result was beating Athletic Bilbao away, and 2.98 at home seems good.  In the Cadiz-Barcelona match I backed over 3 goals at 2.44. Barcelona have scored 11 goals in four matches, but their first was a 0-0 draw so that can also be read as 11 in three (averaging over three, of course). Cadiz, meanwhile, are at the foot of the table, have scored no goals and conceded 10. In their last two matches they’ve conceded three and four goals.   Bundesliga Health warning: my German bets tend to be atrocious. Weirdly, the last bet was green, but that’s very much against normal operating procedure.

Just a quick one, as the bishop said to the nun. As always, results assume £10 stakes. EPL: 2 bets, two wins = +£25 Serie A: 1 bet, one loss = -£10 La Liga: no tip Ligue 1: 3 bets, one win = -£1 Bundesliga: 1 bet, one win = +£26.5   Total = +£40.5   Shocking to see the Bundesliga my best result, but there we are. I’ll probably offer some more La Liga/Bundesliga tips on 7 September.   Morris Dancer

It wasn’t exactly a classic last year and this time out the circuit gave us an eventful race that also saw the picture perfect definition of a value loser. My bet was red and it should have been green all day long. Of the top chaps those who were British were on medium tyres and the rest were on soft. Hamilton had a poor getaway but defended well to retain his place while Norris got the jump on Russell. A few laps later the Mercedes driver retook the position. At the front it was business as usual with Verstappen slowly getting away from Leclerc and a bigger gap forming between Leclerc and Sainz. Hamilton was right on the Spaniard’s tail but unable to pass. Eventually the top three pitted for a Mercedes 1-2 on track, but it was further down the grid an interesting thing happened. Alonso put on hard tyres and found, contrary to all expectations, they were really good. And because Mercedes had started both their driver son medium tyres a one stop was very much on. When Hamilton a

Flares, pigeons, and a very tight battle for qualification.  In Q1 we said goodbye to two chaps whose team mates reached the top 10: Ricciardo and Vettel. Bottas also left at this stage, as did Magnussen and Latifi. Albon’s first Q2 run was buggered by some twonk who had brought in a flare and thrown it onto the track, bringing out a brief red flag. Flares were always stupid, but when they interfere with racing it’s unacceptable. Apparently the chimpanzee in question was made to leave the premises, and rightly so. After all that Albon ended up slowest in Q2, but as his car is great in a straight line and less so in the twisty bits this was no surprise. Gasly was the fastest eliminated driver, ahead of Ocon, Alonso, and Zhou Guanyu. It was all looking close and competitive going into the final section. And so it proved. Verstappen did get pole, two-hundredths ahead of Leclerc and less than a tenth ahead of Sainz. The Mercedes might have done better (Hamilton starts 4 th and Rus

Well, the judgement has been made and Piastri, shocking not many, is joining Norris at McLaren next year. Not an edifying spectacle all round, really. A gearbox failure early on curtailed Verstappen’s first practice running so we didn’t get anything like a representative time from him. It was a Mercedes 1-2 at the top of FP1, with Russell a quarter of a second ahead of Hamilton. Sainz was next, then came Norris, followed by Ricciardo and Leclerc. Perez was only seventh fastest, a second off the ultimate pace, ahead of Alonso, Ocon, and Albon. In second practice it was a Ferrari 1-2, with Leclerc four-thousandths of a second ahead of Sainz, and Hamilton and Norris both within a tenth of the Spaniard. Russell was a short way further back, followed by Stroll, Alonso, Verstappen, Ocon, and Ricciardo. Verstappen’s second practice time was seven-tenths off the Ferraris. Which seems to be a gap too big to be true. However, Perez was half a second further back. There was no 1-2 in th

The Italian bet proved false, so a -£10 result for the prior set. Shade unfortunate.   EPL Backed Brighton at home to beat Leicester. Only 1.9 but Brighton are doing well this season and Leicester are propping up the table. Also, with a free bet, I backed the Manchester United/Arsenal match to have over 3.5 goals at 2.6. The Red Devils are now cooking with gas and the Gunners have been scoring plenty all season. Departure from my usual result bet so we’ll see how it goes.   Serie A Went for Spezia at home to beat Bologna at 3.1. They’re in a similar position in terms of performance, so 3.1 at home feels worth backing. Ligue 1 A trio of home win bets in France this time. Let’s hope at least one of them proves green… Montpellier are 3.25 to beat Lille. They have a better goal difference and are playing at home. Clemont to beat Toulouse are 2.9. They’re also in a very similar state, so home advantage makes 2.9 worth a look. And Troyes are 4.3 to beat Rennes. Last

As before, these results reflect £10 stakes per tip.   EPL*: 2 tips, one win = +£40 Serie A: 1 tip, result due tonight Ligue 1: 4 tips, four losses = -£40 Total = 0 (positive or negative based on the Serie A result) *I did initially offer one tip before adding a second. Ironically, the safety first additional tip failed and the long shot came off.   La Liga Nothing caught my eye. Considered Osasuna at evens at home versus Rayo Vallecano but the odds were a bit too short for my liking.   Bundesliga Backed Frankfurt to beat Leipzig at home, at 3.65. They’re in a familiar similar position so the odds feel long for playing at home.   Mildly under the weather. Morris Dancer