Mexico: pre-qualifying 2016.

After some discussion on the impact of thinner air (higher altitude) on aerodynamics and whether this would minimise or exacerbate variance in aerodynamic performance, it was decided that Mexico is a power circuit. Accordingly, this harms Honda the most, then Renault. Ferrari, having weaker aero but a lovely engine, benefit (as do Williams versus Force India). The Toro Rosso also seems likely to struggle.

In P1, Hamilton was fastest, but less than a tenth ahead of Vettel, who was a similar margin ahead of Raikkonen. Perez, Hulkenberg and Bottas were next, with Rosberg only 7th. Ricciardo, Massa and Kvyat rounded out the top 10.

Second practice saw an even greater surprise with Vettel topping the timesheet four-thousandths ahead of Hamilton [that said, the Briton had a scruffy lap. On pure pace, the Mercedes was faster]. Rosberg was 3rd but half a second off his team mate and just three-hundredths ahead of Raikkonen. Ricciard, Hulkenberg and Verstappen were next, with Bottas, Sainz and Alonso following.

In P1, Verstappen’s rear brakes (both) were on fire. Also, plenty of cars were squirming due to lack of rear grip, and lock ups were pretty common.

At this stage the qualifying bet worth considering is Vettel for pole each way at 12 (or perhaps 1.8 for top 3 on Betfair).

In P3, Verstappen was fastest, a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Next up was Ricciardo, another tenth back, then Rosberg (three-tenths), Bottas and Vettel. Raikkonen, Massa, Hulkenberg and Sainz round out the top 10.

Traffic for Mercedes and messed up laps for Ferrari means their times aren’t reflective of actual pace. Both the BBC radio commentary and Sky chaps thought that Red Bull have the legs on Ferrari (personally, I’m not sure it’s that clear cut).

Both qualifying and the race itself should be dry.

Pole may be a contest, although there are many reports that low speed trap times for Mercedes are indicative of their engines being turned down (ie they still have a substantial advantage over the field). It may also indicate that the likes of Williams and Force India may be more competitive than they might otherwise be.

My feeling is that Hamilton’s strong favourite for pole but seeing where Rosberg ends up will be altogether more interesting.

It’s quite easy to bugger up a lap around the Mexican circuit, though. This is because of a tricky twisty bit where rear grip can vanish, and traffic can be a serious problem. Plenty of locking tyres too (the supersoft appears good for two qualifying laps).

After a bit of a wait for the Ladbrokes’ markets, I’ve decided against betting. Hamilton’s odds for pole are too short to tempt and I can’t see value elsewhere.

Qualifying starts at 7pm. The pre-race piece will be up tomorrow.


Morris Dancer

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