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Showing posts from July, 2023

Belgium: pre-race 2023

Ah, the sprint race. Today it was more comically stupid than usual, with a repeatedly delayed start due to the weather. When it did get going, half the field dove into the pits for inters (the rest stayed out on the full wet, avoiding a full-blown clogging of the pit lane). This enabled Piastri to get ahead of Verstappen, the Aussie for once benefiting through the pit stops. Unfortunately Alonso binned his car in a gravel trap, bringing out the safety car and allowing the Dutchman, on the restart, to reclaim the lead and then cruise off to win. However, Piastri was never challenged in his 2 nd  place. Gasly did his best to cheer up his team by netting 3 rd , with both Ferraris following (Sainz ahead). Norris was 6 th , thanks to the penalty explained below. Not ideal but he’s also benefited from pit stop calls recently. Close contact between Perez and Hamilton damaged the Mexican’s car and necessitated a box and retire, and landed the Briton a 5s time penalty. Some will say that was r

Belgium: pre-sprint nonsense 2023

  As punishment for our sins we have another sprint race this weekend. Unfortunately, Spa is the contaminated race. Qualifying was on a damp then drying track, so evolution was very rapid. This may or may not be of any use for judging race pace, as it’s hard to say how much cars were set up for the mixed conditions and how much for a perhaps dry race. Q1 was clear intermediate weather, and a few drivers had times deleted for slithering off track. This included Ricciardo, set to start 19 th , despite having the pace to make it through but for that. Hulkenberg had a hydraulic problem which meant the latter half of the session was in the pits, putting him last. Another slight surprise was Albon’s departure as fastest eliminated driver, while Zhou Guanyu and Sargeant also left at this stage. Q2 saw things start to improve, to the extent that slicks were on towards the end of the session. Tsunoda was the fastest chap to exit here (not bad given the AlphaTauri is perhaps the most consistentl

Early EPL Bets

Following on from my early tournament bets (Manchester United 10.5 each way, thirds the odds top 2, and Lazio 14 each way, fifth the odds top 3) I've made a couple of early bets on the EPL (other leagues currently not up and running really). These are for matches in the first half of August. As per last season I'm going to base initial bets on the final table of the preceding season. Bournemouth to win at home versus West Ham at 3 . The two sides were just a point apart at the end of last season so the odds for a home win are a little long. Brentford to win at home versus Tottenham at 3 . Eerily similar to the first part, just a point separated them at the end of last season, home advantage makes this worth backing. Morris Dancer

Hungary: pre-race 2023

Upsets and and a very tight Q3 made this an intriguing session, although not a profitable one, alas. This qualifying also saw the test run of a new and stupid approach of forcing teams to use the hard compound in Q1, medium in Q2, and soft in Q3. Why this is necessary or an improvement remains a mystery.   Q1 gave us a couple of interesting nuggets, the first being that Ricciardo escaped it and Tsunoda did not. It also saw Russell buggered by traffic as Mercedes left the second run needlessly late and he ended up 18 th  on a track where overtaking is really rather difficult. We also waved goodbye to both Williams and Magnussen. Q2 kept things nice and close, with Leclerc scraping through at the expense of his team mate. Both Alpines, Stroll, and Ricciardo failed to progress. Heading into Q3 it was looking like yet another Verstappen podium, but we got some exciting variety. Hamilton racked up yet another pole to push the Dutchman down into 2 nd , with a McLaren second row of Norris and

Hungary: pre-qualifying 2023

  Excitingly, the official F1 website has started hiding living timing data and lap-by-lap text coverage behind the ironically named F1 Unlocked scheme. Yes, it’s free. No, I’m not signing up.   Note that Friday practice was wet for the first session but qualifying and the race are expected to be dry, so times are of limited value. First practice was notably for Perez immediately crashing. Not sure that’s going to do his career at Red Bull any favours. In the wet, Russell ended up top dog ahead of Piastri, then came Stroll and Norris. Alonso, Bottas, Leclerc, Zhou Guanyu, Sargeant and Hulkenberg rounded out the not necessarily representative top 10. Second practice had Leclerc top of the time sheet, one and a half hundredths ahead of Norris. Gasly, Tsunoda, and Ocon followed, rather indicating this list isn’t one of raw pace. Hulkenberg, Bottas, Alonso, Zhou Guanyu, and Sainz completed the upper half of the time sheet.   Perez is 23 to top qualifying. Each way, that’s worth backing. Ye

UK: pre-race 2023

Well, my doesn’t-count-in-the-records tiny free bet on Albon to be top 3 in third practice came off, and qualifying was entertaining too. At the start it was either inters or softs and most went for softs. It saw a dramatic decline in relative pace for Williams, who struggled to escape. A late red flag when Magnussen’s Haas decided to stop working meant a three minute dash and this put paid to Perez’s hopes as the times ramped up. This was bad luck for the Mexican, who has sometimes been the author of his own qualification misfortune in recent times (for reference, Alonso was two-hundredths from being out). In addition to Perez, we waved farewell to Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu, de Vries, and, of course, Magnussen. Q2 was highly competitive and the drying track altered performances, with McLaren looking very nice indeed. Hulkenberg failed to make it out of this stage, as did Stroll (who had a track position squabble with the also-exiting Ocon), Sargeant, and Bottas, whose car failed late on. I

UK: pre-qualifying 2023

In FP1 Verstappen was fastest ahead of Perez by over four-tenths, and the Mexican was less than a tenth ahead of Albon, which is a bit weird. Alonso, Leclerc, and Ocon followed, meaning five of the top six were from different teams. Then came Sainz, Norris, Stroll, and Piastri. Second practice again had Verstappen in the lead but just two-hundredths ahead of Sainz. Albon was third (again), two-tenths off the Dutchman and half a tenth ahead of Perez. Sargeant being next does make me wonder if Williams has turned up with some sort of magic upgrade package. Then came Stroll and Hulkenberg, Gasly, Piastri, and Alonso.   As is often the case now I won’t be able to watch pay attention to third practice then bet. If you have a free bet then each way (qualifying) for Albon given his seeming pace and potential weather conditions taking out others/making last over the line more important is worth considering. He’s 51 for fastest qualifier, which frankly seems a little long given two top 3 finish

Austria: pre-race 2023

  While the sprint format remains stupid the race today was entertaining thanks to intermediate conditions for the first two-thirds and it drying sufficiently for slicks for the latter 8 laps or so (of 24). Off the line, Perez had the better of it and overtook his team mate, only to go wide and lose out first to Verstappen and then to Hulkenberg. Norris, meanwhile, got caught out and slipped back to 10 th  having been 4 th . In the early running, before tyre wear (which affected all cars but the Haas fastest), Hulkenberg was 2 nd  for quite a while and was able to maintain and slightly extend his advantage over Perez. Then his car chewed up his tyres and he was passed easily by Perez and then Sainz. He was falling int the clutches of the Aston Martins (Stroll ahead of Alonso) when he boxed. This was a couple of laps after Russell made the bold call, which was entirely right. Hamilton swapped for slicks one lap after his team mate but Russell’s up-to-temperature tyres enabled him to get