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Mexico: post-race analysis 2017

Neither race bet came off. Been a rather bad year, to be honest. Of the early tips, they’re green overall thanks to Verstappen winning (tipped pre-weekend at 5). Both race bets were at least credible, but you don’t get sympathy winnings. Ricciardo ended up taking a grid penalty. After all that, he started near the back. Anyway, off the line it was very close, Verstappen just about passing Vettel and staying on track. The German tried to come back as Hamilton sought to take advantage and the two collided. Vettel lost part of his front wing, Hamilton suffered a puncture. Verstappen broke away from Bottas and, after lap 1 pit stops from the title contenders, Hamilton was dead last and Vettel was last but one, albeit some way up the road. Behind Bottas, it was spring time for the midfield chaps with Ocon, Hulkenberg and Sainz all ahead of Raikkonen (the Finn has a habit of starting badly). Meanwhile, Ricciardo’s brand new engine failed. A short and not very spectacula

Mexico: pre-race 2017

Gasly didn’t run in qualifying due to engine issues. Vandoorne had a 35 place penalty, with a 20 place penalty for Alonso. Gasly might be miffed, but with Toro Rosso having a Honda engine next year he might have to get used to this sort of thing. Obviously Gasly didn’t escape the first session, and the other four who joined him were the two Saubers and the two Haas cars (which were slower than the Saubers). Pretty weak pace from the American team. In Q2 there was more woe for Toro Rosso as Hartley’s engine failed. The McLarens didn’t run due to their mighty penalties and with Hartley also out by default there were only two ‘proper’ exits. Unfortunately for Williams, both their cars dropped out here, Massa being the faster. And so to Q3, which everybody expected to be very close. And so it proved to be. Verstappen put in a great lap on his first run, but was unable to match Vettel’s second attempt. The German starts on pole, with the Dutchman alongside him. Having

Mexico: pre-qualifying 2017

I’ve rambled a bit more than usual about early bets here, so let me know if you think that’s worthwhile or I should, as is normal, just mention them in passing. Ah, Mexico, where the high altitude alters the aerodynamics and engines in a way that I forget every single year. Unhelpfully, having checked the two previous races, the circuit seems good for Williams and Red Bull, two teams with diametrically opposed design philosophies. Worth recalling there was a significant earthquake in Mexico only a few weeks ago, so hopefully they’re making good progress rebuilding. In other, unsurprising, news, Hartley is retaining his Toro Rosso seat and Kvyat’s gone again, as Gasly comes back. At least if Kvyat has gone for good, he had a good last race, nabbing the final point in Austin. It also sounds like Hartley might retain his seat for 2018. Having read a little, it seems that the high altitude lends itself to massive downforce levels, akin to Monaco/Hungary, despite the lo

USA: post-race analysis 2017

The race was thoroughly entertaining with plenty of action throughout, perhaps spoilt only by the surprising decision against Verstappen late on. In terms of weekend bets, it was green, one bet succeeding and the other failing (due to bad luck regarding reliability). All the early tips, pre-weekend, failed, but two of the three did so due to misfortune (Verstappen’s grid penalty and Ricciardo’s DNF). Congratulations and commiserations to Mr. Sandpit, who correctly tipped No Safety Car at 2.4 and a top 6 finish for Verstappen at 1.75, but failed to back either. Still, it could be worse. Could’ve failed to back his own 70/1 winning tip… Vandoorne ended up starting last because his five place grid penalty was increased to 30. Off the line, Vettel got a flying start and passed Hamilton, with Ocon getting past Raikkonen (who, according to commentary, hasn’t made a single place all year from the start, unless you count his short race in Singapore). Raikkonen soon regai

USA: pre-race 2017

Bit odd having qualifying on at the unusually late hour of 10pm. In broad terms, it went as expected, but I was a bit surprised after the early running that Vettel did as well as he did. In the first session both Saubers left the stage (Ericsson doing well to get the 16 th best time). Magnussen was slowest, Stroll also failed to escape (apparently he had a problem with electrical energy and, in this era, that effectively holes you below the waterline) and Hartley, in his first race, got 18 th . In the second session, Hulkenberg was ‘slowest’ but that was mostly due to the fact he didn’t run (not much point with such a large grid penalty). Grosjean also struggled, although he was lucky to make it through after Stroll had impeded him in Q1 (the three place grid penalty the Canadian got won’t stop him starting higher on the grid than he qualified, likewise for Magnussen who blocked Perez).Vandoorne was a bit slower than expected, and ahead of him was Kvyat and Massa. All

USA: pre-qualifying 2017

The musical chairs continue at Toro Rosso, with neither driver (Sainz/Gasly) from their last race competing in this one. Sainz has toddled off to Renault, and Gasly is driving in the last Japanese Super Formula race (he’s fighting for the title). Sainz’s seat was already nabbed by Kvyat, and this time around Gasly will be replaced by Brendon Hartley, a Kiwi endurance driver. Whether this is a one-off remains to be seen, as there are no conflicts between F1 dates and WEC races. Whilst Gasly is nigh on certain to return, he could be driving alongside either Hartley or Kvyat. In significant news, Alonso will be staying with McLaren next year. This was largely expected after the team ditched the Honda engine for Renault, but still good news. Will he have a shot? Perhaps. I’ll be keeping an eye on the odds. This weekend the purple ultrasoft will be changed to pink, to raise awareness of breast cancer. Ironic, given breast cancer has hugely more awareness and research funding than

Japan: post-race analysis 2017

Pretty terrible result. Slept badly due to mild pestilence, missed the start, had to get up to walk the hound and only caught the end. And the bet was red (Haas were pretty good, Stroll was well out of the points and even before his DNF was never going to score). Humbug and a half. Before the race began, deja vu struck. The Ferrari starting 2 nd (Vettel this time) had its bodywork off and was being worked on by anxious mechanics. This time, it got going. But would it last? Off the line, Verstappen passed his team mate, who also lost out to Ocon. Vettel retained 2 nd , but fairly early on his car lost power. A spark plug failure saw the title contender lose half a dozen places before, sadly, he was forced to box and retire. The title contest, it seems, is effectively over. Ocon fought well but couldn’t keep Ricciardo or Bottas behind him. A safety car period ended and almost immediately Stroll cocked up a corner, losing several places and then having to pit very early,

Japan: pre-race 2017

Housekeeping, first up. As well as the Sainz penalty, the world was shocked to learn Alonso has a massive one too, and Palmer likewise. Smaller five place penalties for gearbox changes afflict the Finnish pair as well. My Raikkonen bet proved a significant misjudgement. The Mercedes had a substantial pace advantage, far more than I thought likely, and Vettel was only third fastest (he’ll start 2 nd because of Bottas’ penalty). Raikkonen crashed in third practice, hence the gearbox change and penalty, and he seemed thoroughly on the back foot throughout qualifying. It seemed I significantly underestimated the premium on straight line speed at Suzuka, which also affected the Red Bull performance. On the plus side, straight line speed being super helps the race bet. First session was most notable for a snap of oversteer that helped introduce Grosjean to the barrier with just over a minute remaining, bringing out a red flag and ending the session. This was especially irksome to

Japan: pre-qualifying 2017

Because of the early starts of this race (7am for qualifying tomorrow, 6am for the race on Sunday), the first two articles (including this one) will be up earlier than usual, but the post-race ramble might be up after the highlights (I may listen to the race on the radio then catch highlights later). There was an odd collision between Vettel and Stroll after the Malaysian Grand Prix ended, which caused quite a bit of damage to the German’s car. Fortunately, his gearbox has been given the green light to continue. Speaking of crashes, Sainz had a significant one in first practice. He’s fine, but has accumulated so many penalties he’ll start either from the back of the grid or the summit of Mount Fuji. In first practice, Vettel was two-tenths up on Hamilton, who was a similar margin ahead of Ricciardo. Raikkonen, Bottas and Verstappen followed (so, two sets of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull), with Ocon, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Vandoorne rounding out the top 10. Seco

Malaysia: post-race analysis 2017

The last race in Malaysia was a very entertaining one. Rather a shame we’re losing it and retaining the processional tedium of Monaco, Azerbaijan and Singapore, but there we are. From a betting perspective, a bit wonky. The Raikkonen bet was voided and the Verstappen bet failed, so down one stake. The drama started before the race began. Raikkonen’s car was looking iffy (it seems the high temperatures were affecting the turbo, similar to the problem that ruined Vettel’s qualifying). Despite efforts to mend it, first on the grid and then in the garage, the Finn was unable to start the race. Off the line, Ricciardo lost a place to Bottas, Vandoorne climbed significantly (up to 5 th ), and Vettel picked up a few places. Ocon was caught in a Perez-Massa sandwich (not really his fault, or anyone’s). He ended up needing an early pit stop, which rather compromised his race. At the sharper end, the Red Bulls were right on the tails of the Mercedes. Verstappen didn’t merely