MorrisF1

  EPL I’ve backed Luton to win at home versus Burnley at 3 . They’re both equally bad, and home advantage makes this value, I think. Both teams have lost all but a single draw, though Luton have scored in both their home matches to date and the low overall scoring record of both teams may make that a useful habit. Could go either way, but the odds make it worthwhile, I think. Ligue 1 Backed Le Havre to win at home versus Lille at 4.1 . Both sides are very closely matched, Le Havre have won two of three home games so far, Lille have a loss and two draws on the road to date. Just feel the odds are too long. Serie A I considered this for a while, but have backed Lecce to win at home versus Napoli at 5 . The defending champions aren’t out of it but have had a less than ideal start to their title defence. Both sides are on 11 points, and Lecce have won all their home games. Neither side has been especially tested excepting the 1-0 away loss by Lecce at Juventus. The

Worth noting that pole is very important in Japan and winners are rarely off the front row (thrice in three decades). Also, overtaking’s tricky and the track is chewing up tyres. Q1 had the unsurprising spectacle of Sargeant introducing his car to the wall. This brought out a red flag. Hulkenberg’s been very good at qualifying this season but this time out he was out in this session, as were both Alfa Romeos and the lacklustre Stroll. Q2 had a slight shock with Lawson the fastest departing chap. This was a bit unexpected as he was so quick up to this point, but burning an extra set of softs in the first part of qualifying may have cooked his goose. He’s been at this circuit before, and it’s been showing. Both Alpines failed to progress, as did Albon and Magnussen. In Q3 it seemed destined that Verstappen would get pole. And he did. Comfortably. I suspect the race will be a near guaranteed Verstappen win though it could be tasty behind him and if he gets stuck behind a McLaren due to a

EPL I’ve backed Spurs to win away at Arsenal at 4.9 . The two sides are on identical points and look pretty evenly matched. That being the case, the odds on an away win are a little longer than should be the case. Home advantage is a big deal in the EPL, but Arsenal have shipped points with every home match to date, and Spurs have scored in every away match and won two out of three. A viable alternative is to lay Arsenal for the win at roughly 1.7 or less. La Liga and Serie A Nothing tickled my fancy this round from La Liga and Serie A. Ligue 1 I’ve backed Metz to win at home versus Strasbourg at 3.1 (Ladbrokes) . The two sides are pretty even, Metz has mildly better recent form. That being the case, the odds for a home win are worth backing. Probably 50/50 as to whether that result happens. Also gone for Toulouse to win away at Lens at 5.4 . While high fliers last season, so far (in five games) the home side have achieved a solitary point. Toul

And so to one of the season’s early starts: Japan.Qualifying is set for 7am, the race for 6am. After Red Bull’s atrocious visit to Singapore, they’ll be hoping to deny everyone the highly entertaining battle for the win we enjoyed then being repeated and instead revert to the Max Verstappen podcast arrangement they’ve hitherto put on. Practice one had Verstappen fastest and six-tenths ahead of Sainz, which may be ominous. Norris and Leclerc followed, then came Tsunoda, Alonso, Piastri, Albon, Lawson, and Stroll. Second practice again had Verstappen quickest ahead of a Ferrari but this time it was three-tenths over Leclerc. Norris and Sainz came next, making it the same top four (albeit in a different order) as before. Russell, Alonso, and Albon followed, with Piastri, Perez, and Bottas rounding out the top 10. At this stage it’s looking highly likely Verstappen will get pole and the win with Norris and the Ferraris battling for the podium. That said, Piastri could’ve been in the mix la

Well, that was quite the qualifying session. And a fantastically unpredictable one at that. My only complaint is against myself for not backing the previous post’s potential bet on the Ferraris. Q1 had a sting in its tail on a rapidly improving track, in which Stroll introduced his car to the barriers and prevented others (notably Piastri, who had the pace to get through) from escaping. The Aussie and Canuck were joined by both Alfa Romeos, and Logan Sargeant. And that was followed by an even bigger surprise, and one due to pace rather than a crash, in Q2. The Red Bull had looked a handful all session, and neither Verstappen nor Perez were able to make it out, qualifying 11 th  and 13 th  (NB Verstappen is one of various drivers under investigation and he may well end up with a grid penalty for impeding Tsunoda in this session). Gasly, Albon, and Tsunoda were also unable to get any further. Given the absolute dominance of Red Bull this year, this is astonishing. But not the first time

  The track layout has been changed this year, cutting out a few corners to try and present an overtaking opportunity. Given this circuit almost never has passing the change is eminently understandable. They picked a poor time to do it, though, as difficulty overtaking might have given a non-Red Bull team a credible chance of victory for once. Lots of teams have brought updates here so that may shuffle the order somewhat. First practice has the Ferraris topping the time sheet, Leclerc under a tenth ahead of Sainz. Similar small margins marked the distances back to Verstappen, Norris, and Hamilton, then it was a tenth and a half to Russell, with Perez, Alonso, Tsunoda, and Ocon rounding out the top 10. Second practice still had the Ferraris top but this time Sainz was the faster, by a mighty two-hundredths. Russell was two-tenths back but a tenth ahead of Alonso, with similar gaps to Norris, Perez, Verstappen, Magnussen, and Bottas. Just about every team other than Williams had a chap i