United States: post-race analysis 2016

It’s the morning after the night before. As usual, the Circuit of the Americas produced a very entertaining. It was neither profitable nor detrimental to finances, though, as the evens No Safety Car tip came off, but Hamilton selfishly hogged first place on the first lap. [Apologies for any slight errors in the order things happened, I tend to write race reports from memory].

Off the line, it seemed to be formation flying, but Rosberg couldn’t quite keep ahead of Ricciardo, and the Aussie slipped into 2^nd. Further down the field, there was contact aplenty. Bunching of the field at the wide first corner meant Bottas and Hulkenberg made contact. The German was out and the Finn had a puncture. To make matters worse for Force India, Perez had contact with Kvyat, and the Mexican ended up more or less last, facing the wrong way, but was able to get going (Kvyat ended up with a 10s penalty).

Button, by contrast, had a flyer, rising from 19^th to 11^th on lap 1.

Meanwhile at the sharp end it was surprisingly close. The top four (Verstappen 4^th) were all covered by a single camera shot, and Raikkonen was close behind too.

At the first round of pit stops Rosberg jumped a different way to everyone else. He pitted quite early to stop Raikkonen’s undercut getting the better of him, and slotted on the medium tyres. These were working really rather well, and he matched Hamilton’s pace when the Briton pitted for fresh softs. Ricciardo retained 2^nd, but his soft tyres meant that Rosberg would be able to run longer.

A short way back, Vettel had been catching the racy Raikkonen. No team orders occurred, unless you count bringing Raikkonen in for fresh tyres.

Verstappen was getting very close to Rosberg, who found himself the meat in a Red Bull sandwich, the three cars covered by under 2s. For a short time it was close and then the gaps opened up just a little (roughly a second and a half each way).

Ricciardo pitted, then so did Verstappen. The Dutchman surprised his team [somehow he thought they’d called him in], who ran out and actually did a good job of slamming on some medium tyres despite being astonished to see him. However, woe was to occur. Halfway round the next lap his engine lost almost all power. He kept trundling around, passing marshal stations (at the team’s behest) until they ordered him to cross a gravel trap and park the car by a marshal post. However, they were unable to push the car through the gap (sounds like the wheels locked) so a Virtual Safety Car emerged.

This was ruinous for Ricciardo. The timing allowed both Mercedes to pit, effectively saving 10s on a pit stop, which put Rosberg easily ahead of the Aussie. I think it near certain Ricciardo would’ve been ahead of Rosberg after the final stops but for this, although the Mercedes did have better pace so he might have been passed anyway. But, we’ll never know.

Raikkonen suffered misfortune too. On the final stop he had a cross-threaded wheel nut and was ordered to stop immediately after leaving the pit lane. This probably stopped him getting a 5^th, or perhaps a 4^th.

There was some cracking action from 5^th to 7^th. Sainz, on ageing soft tyres, was pursued by Massa and Alonso, both on mediums. The wily young Spaniard was doing a great job keeping Massa behind him. The Brazilian overcooked things and locked up (fortunately a corner, otherwise he would’ve ploughed into Sainz’s rear). However, this allowed Alonso get a little bit nearer. Massa left the door open at a later corner, and Alonso, from some way back, dove down the inside and passed his former team mate in a wheel-banging manoeuvre. This appeared to give Massa a puncture, necessitating a very late pit stop.

Alonso then set about chasing down Sainz. On the final lap [I think] he pulled off another audacious/obnoxious manoeuvre to pass his younger compatriot.

After all that, it was another Mercedes 1-2, although Red Bull were closer on pace (if not fortune) than has been the case at some other circuits. Mexico, being quite slow and twisty (I think, need to check) could be rather splendid for the Red Bulls.

Hamilton narrows the gap from 33 to 26 points, but it’s still advantage Rosberg.

Ricciardo gets a well-deserved podium. Shame for Verstappen but these things happen. Vettel was in a race of one, effectively. Not fast enough to fight for a podium, but a day and a half ahead of Alonso.

The Spaniards had a lovely day, Alonso 5^th, Sainz 6^th. It’s worth noting both benefited from substantial luck due to retirements and misfortune for those ahead of them (Verstappen, Raikkonen, Hulkenberg retired, Bottas and Perez suffered accidents that put them further down the order). But, opportunities are there to be seized. As an aside, this is terrible for my spread betting suggestion on Alonso, and a useful result as it’s indicative of how quickly a low points sell can turn wonky with one lucky result. That said, driver of the day would probably be between these two chaps (I’d give it to Sainz).

Next was Massa, despite his late puncture. Overall a good day for Williams in their contest with Force India, but it could’ve been better. Perez was right behind Massa, a strong recovery after a dreadful first lap. So, the gap narrows, but only by a couple of points.

Button and Grosjean got the last points. So, another double points finish for McLaren, and another point for Haas (Gutierrez had to retire due to his brakes, I believe).

So, Rosberg’s lead over Hamilton, with three races to go, is now 26 points. The next races are Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. For his own peace of mind, Rosberg could do with beating Hamilton at the next race. I still think Rosberg’s got the whip hand. If you believe Hamilton can yet win, he’s 3.75 on Ladbrokes. However, if Rosberg is 2^nd at two races and 3^rd at another and Hamilton wins all three, Rosberg still takes the title. If Rosberg wins the next race, Hamilton 2^nd, it would take a near miracle for Hamilton to retain his crown.

To be honest, I hope Rosberg wins, for the sake of variety, if nothing else. And for those who say it’d be undeserved due to Hamilton’s technical woes, I would remind them of Singapore (where Rosberg out-drove Hamilton all weekend) and 2014, Abu Dhabi. There, Rosberg suffered a reliability failure that put him out of the points. If Hamilton had suffered that problem instead, Rosberg would’ve won that title.

Constructors’:

Red Bull 400

Ferrari 347

Force India 138

Williams 130

I don’t think Ferrari can close that gap. The number wouldn’t be insurmountable but right now Red Bull has a performance advantage, particularly given the natures of upcoming tracks. If we were off to Monza, it’d be a different story. The 8 point Force India lead is pretty tenuous. However, if memory serves Perez is good at Mexico and Abu Dhabi, and Hulkenberg is very good around Interlagos (especially in the wet). Plus the Force India is better at the twisty stuff. I expected this lead to grow, but a particularly turbulent race could, perhaps, see it go the other way.

Next week we’re off to Mexico. Only had the one race there before, so limited information to go on. I might go back and re-read last year’s rambling.

A fortnight after that we’re in Brazil (thankfully rather further east, not a fan of late starts) and then two weeks later the season finale is in Abu Dhabi.

Morris Dancer