MorrisF1

Well, I’d hoped for a race more exciting than last year, and we had it. For a third of the race. At the start, Bottas did well to keep off a charging Verstappen and Ricciardo slipped past Magnussen for best of the rest. Further down the order, Leclerc immediately made up a place. In the opening laps Leclerc performed a few more passes, but when trying to overtake Hulkenberg he appears to have clipped a barrier and spun himself, possibly lightly colliding with the German. This caused a puncture on the Ferrari and Leclerc returned to the pits too quickly (Hulkenberg also pitting, ahead of him). The tyre shredded and whipped his bodywork like a dominatrix armed with a flail and PMS. Debris was spread, Leclerc was last, and the safety car emerged. Ricciardo and Magnussen, best of the rest, pitted. Almost no-one else did. Hulkenberg, who had changed tyres just beforehand, was buggered, ending up almost as far down the order as Leclerc. The Aussie and Dane were stuck behind

I wonder if Ferrari’s strategy team are secretly Mercedes’ fans. It would explain their inexplicably bad decision-making in qualifying. Leclerc looked pissed off, and rightly so (one might argue the driver could’ve demanded to go out again, but he’s still pretty new). The first session of qualifying was notable for Giovinazzi impeding Hulkenberg (as I type this, they’re off to the stewards), the Williams and Racing Point cars all being eliminated, and the ineffable cock-up that saw Leclerc go out. No crash. No reliability failure. No AT-ATs assaulting the Ferrari garage. He was just a bit slow initially and the team didn’t bother to send him out. They sent out Vettel who, ironically, ended up being the one to push his team mate into the elimination zone. Utterly daft. Particularly on a circuit where cars pass with all the ease of a kidney stone. In Q2, things were very tight. Both Alfa Romeos, having looked tasty in practice, were eliminated, as were Hulkenberg, Norris, an

The main news since the last race is the passing away of Niki Lauda. Lauda won three world titles (Ferrari 1975 and 1977, and McLaren 1984), suffered serious burns in 1976 which saw him given the last rites only to return to racing about six weeks later, and had a famous rivalry with James Hunt, depicted in the film Rush. More recently he was one of the chaps at Mercedes, and played a role in getting Hamilton to jump ship from McLaren. RIP Niki Lauda. A week or so ago I backed/tipped Leclerc at 19 to win (each way, fifth the odds top 3). Whilst I do expect Verstappen to be more competitive, I was surprised to see Gasly’s odds at just 11, and Leclerc did very well around the tight streets of Azerbaijan. Complicating matters is the forecast of rain for qualifying, though the race itself is expected to be dry (shame it isn’t the other way around). I also put tiny sums on Ricciardo, Sainz, and Perez (901, 1751, 1751 respectively) just in case rain played a role in qualifyi

Of the quartet of bets, half came off, yielding a modest overall profit. As an aside, if I’d whittled them down to two it’s likely I would’ve abandoned the more profitable one and kept the less profitable one, so the overall result wouldn’t’ve been hugely different. Off the line, Bottas started poorly, Hamilton and Vettel very well. Hamilton went right, Vettel left. But the German locked a brake and slipped back, behind both Mercedes and the opportunistic Verstappen. Hamilton did not make a mistake and claimed a lead he would never relinquish. Further down the order, Raikkonen relived his rallying days with a gravelly excursion and Norris forgot that corners entail turning the steering wheel, though he was able to return to the track some way down the order. Otherwise it was broadly formation flying. The gaps started to stretch between the top four, with Vettel unhappy with his flat spotted tyres and unhappy with Leclerc being so close. After much prevarication, the Fe

The first session of qualifying was notable for Hulkenberg making an error and taking his Renault on a scenic excursion through the gravel. He was able to return to the pits and his team mended the wounded car, but he was unable to progress any further, missing out on Q2, to his team mate, by under two-hundredths. Unsurprisingly, the Williams were slowest, but Russell (who was 19 th fastest but will start 20 th due to a penalty) was within a few tenths of Giovinazzi, so perhaps the gap is narrowing. Stroll also failed to reach Q2. The second part of qualifying was as competitive as ever, with just a few hundredths separating progression from elimination. Norris, Albon, Sainz, Raikkonen and Perez left at this stage (as an aside, Norris and Albon have been impressive in their début season. Harder for Russell to show his skill given his car, of course). Leclerc cocked up his first lap and had to have a second, meaning he only got one run in for Q3. Q3 saw the top six joined

Ricciardo gets a three place grid penalty for his reversing into Kvyat last time out. There are also lots of new bits and pieces, with new engines for the Ferraris and Ricciardo. The Renault update, however, seems to be more about reliability than speed. My early thoughts are to keep an eye on the odds on Verstappen, Perez, and Sainz/McLaren. The circuit is one where overtaking is difficult, so cunning strategy/safety car luck can be worth a lot. In first practice Bottas was fastest, a tenth ahead of Vettel, himself just a tenth in front of Leclerc. Hamilton was six-tenths off his team mate, with Grosjean a third of a second further back. Sainz, Magnussen, Gasly, Kvyat, and Hulkenberg rounded out the top 10. Verstappen was down in twelfth, with fewer laps and none on the fastest tyres. Stroll had a bit of a crash. Verstappen had an oil leak in first practice, so Red Bull have brought forward an engine change for him. Second practice had Bottas fastest, just