MorrisF1

It was a bloody odd year. From a betting perspective, it was my worst ever (been doing this since the latter half of 2009) if you count only the weekend tips included in these articles. If you count the fortuitous Verstappen tip (to win in Spain at 250/1) it’s the best ever. I got under a third of tips correct, but finished ahead by quite a long way. Most of the weekend tips being wrong were due to misjudgement. I did have some bad luck too. The weather forecast I saw for Interlagos was 100% wrong and buggered both my bets there. Had they come off, the result would’ve meant a slightly red season rather than one redder than a baboon’s backside. That said, at the six race weekends I offered three tips, one was properly green, one was essentially flat, and the other four were red. It’s not great when there’s an inversely proportional relationship between number of bets and sound judgement, and that’s almost entirely my fault. I may try and make an effort to offer a

A tense race from start to finish, with the drama ramping up towards the end. Betting-wise, it was green, which is a nice way to end a very peculiar season (but I’ll blather about that in the season review). The race was characterised by three things: great drives from Verstappen and Vettel due to varying strategy, and Hamilton backing up Rosberg. Off the line it was fairly straightforward, excepting that Raikkonen got the jump on Ricciardo. However, Verstappen had a slightly slow start (Red Bull perhaps compromised more than expected by starting on the supersoft when surrounded by ultrasoft-starters?) and was spun when he struck Hulkenberg slightly. At the end of lap 1, Verstappen was last. Ahead, the Mercedes were a bit faster but not scampering away, and the Ferraris and Ricciardo were evenly matched. Verstappen set about cutting his way through the field. After the first pit stops (two planned), Hamilton led, Verstappen (who alone had not pitted) was next, then Rosb

Well, qualifying ran pretty much to form with Hamilton easily on pole and Rosberg alongside him. The one real surprise was that the Red Bulls both went for the supersoft in Q2, which means they start on the slightly more durable tyre. The rest of the top 10 are on the ultrasofts. Both Saubers and Toro Rossos (who are having a dreadful weekend so far) exited in Q1, as did Ocon and Magnussen. Both Haas drivers failed to reach Q3, and were joined in the departure lounge of Q2 by Wehrlein (slowest in the session), Palmer, Button and Bottas (the last two behind ahead of the Haas). Alas, Q3 was a bit predictable. Hamilton had daylight between him and Rosberg, a yawning three-tenth gap. That said, Rosberg was over half a second faster than Ricciardo. Raikkonen and Vettel split the Red Bulls (who, alone of the top 10, start on the supersoft rather than ultrasoft). After 6 th -placed Verstappen, Hulkenberg leads Perez, and it turns out Alonso is faster than Massa, the pair makin

Well, here we are. The final race of the season, the title decider, the last race before the rules change. A brief look to 2017, as it’s been confirmed Germany will not have a race due to financial problems. Rain, which plagued my Brazil bets, is unlikely to be a complicating factor in Abu Dhabi. In first practice Hamilton was nearly half a second ahead of Rosberg, who was just half a tenth up on Verstappen with Ricciardo close behind. Vettel, Perez and Raikkonen were next, with Sainz, Massa and Ericsson rounding out the top 10. In second practice the same two were at the top, but Hamilton was just a tenth up, and Rosberg was two-tenths ahead of Vettel. Verstappen and Ricciardo came next, then Raikkonen, Bottas, Perez, Hulkenberg and Massa. Third practice had a rather different set of chaps at the top. Vettel was fastest, two-tenths up on Verstappen, who was within a tenth of the Dutch Wunderkind. Hamilton and Rosberg were next (a tenth between them). Ricciard

Neither bet was anywhere near coming off because the forecast I saw was the most wrong of any forecast I’ve seen since 2009, when I started regularly tipping on F1. Had it been more accurate, the bets I would’ve looked at would’ve involved Red Bull, Hulkenberg, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Button [Verstappen did well, the rest did not]. So, all red, but if the weather and the forecast are radically different it’s hard to feel I misjudged things because my own tips were based on flawed information. Anyway. It was very wet before and at the start. So wet, in fact, that Grosjean lost control on his way to the grid. The start was under the safety car. At the time, I thought this was typically limp-wristed weak-kneed nonsense, but in hindsight it was probably the right call (the start was delayed by 10 minutes but this appeared to make the conditions slightly worse). After trundling around behind the safety car for a few laps, the race began. Verstappen pounced on Raikkonen l

In Q1 the Saubers were slowest, and right ahead of them were the Manors. Magnussen was 18 th and the slight surprise departure was Button in 17 th . He’d looked good in the hot/dry on Friday, but the colder conditions didn’t suit him at all. In Q2, Palmer was slowest, with the Toro Rossos (suffering a bit with the 2015 Ferrari engine) just ahead. Gutierrez qualified 12 th , the meat in a Williams sandwich (bit surprised both Williams left at this stage). The final session was close. Initially, Hamilton was 0.16s ahead of Rosberg, but both men improved on the final run. Hamilton ended up one-tenth ahead of his rival, for yet another Mercedes front row. Raikkonen was over half a second behind them, and less than a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Vettel was a hundred off the Dutchman, and Ricciardo half a tenth off Vettel. Rather close between Ferrari and Red Bull. In the dry, better tyre wear may help Ferrari, although bad luck and poor strategy could prove a problem. G

Off-track news first. To my surprise, Palmer has been confirmed as Hulkenberg’s team mate at Renault. I really did think he was a goner. Magnussen has jumped ship to Haas, so presumably Gutierrez will be off (perhaps to Sauber, if Nasr gets the vacant Force India seat). Lance Stroll, the Canadian teenager, has been confirmed as Bottas’ team mate at Williams for next year (as widely expected). Meanwhile, Esteban Ocon, who replaced Rio Haryanto at Manor halfway through the season, joins Force India as Perez’s team mate. Do not underestimate the importance of the weather in determining both this race and the title. In the dry, Rosberg is looking good. If it’s very wet, Hamilton could be favourite for both. In first practice Hamilton was fastest, a tenth ahead of Verstappen, and three-tenths up on Rosberg. Ricciardo, Bottas, Perez and Hulkenberg were next, with Massa, Vettel and Raikkonen round out the top 10. In second practice Hamilton was a mere three-hundredt

From a betting perspective, more post-mortem than post-race. Three tips, none came off. Obviously the Hulkenberg tip was unlikely (although credible, I think, given he was side by side with Verstappen on the straight and both Mercedes went off track). The other two tips were just poorly judged. Pre-race, Grosjean had some issues and started from the pit lane. Palmer, whose cracked chassis prevented him qualifying, lined up 21 st on the grid. Off the line, Hamilton got away cleanly. Rosberg was side by side with Verstappen, Hulkenberg close behind. At the first corner Hamilton went off and only came back on some way down the road. Rosberg went off, squeezed out by Verstappen, at turn one, rejoined still 2 nd and kept the place. Neither Mercedes was penalised which I found somewhat surprising (more leeway must be given at the start but I’m not sure that extends to making corners optional). Further down the order Gutierrez, with the deft touch of a drunk wearing oven glo

Qualifying was peculiar. Appeared very close between three teams then in Q3 Ferrari’s pace fell off a cliff. There was a bit of a jumbled up grid in the end, so hopefully that’ll present some betting opportunities. Remember that there’s a very long run to the first corner. Screw up your start and you’ll be staring at a Manor’s exhaust. Oddly, Palmer got a cracked chassis in third practice. That sort of thing happens, but he didn’t know, kept running, and was fine. However, it did mean he couldn’t partake in qualifying and therefore starts last. Dreadful Q1 for Haas, with both cars struggling and Grosjean slowest on track. Gutierrez was 17 th (again out-qualifying his team mate), and between them were Kvyat, Nasr and Ocon. However, the Manor of Wehrlein just made it into Q2 [only five eliminated here due to Palmer not running]. Q2 went more predictably, the only slight surprise being that Perez was only 12 th , behind Alonso. Following the Mexican was Button, Magnussen,

After some discussion on the impact of thinner air (higher altitude) on aerodynamics and whether this would minimise or exacerbate variance in aerodynamic performance, it was decided that Mexico is a power circuit. Accordingly, this harms Honda the most, then Renault. Ferrari, having weaker aero but a lovely engine, benefit (as do Williams versus Force India). The Toro Rosso also seems likely to struggle. In P1, Hamilton was fastest, but less than a tenth ahead of Vettel, who was a similar margin ahead of Raikkonen. Perez, Hulkenberg and Bottas were next, with Rosberg only 7 th . Ricciardo, Massa and Kvyat rounded out the top 10. Second practice saw an even greater surprise with Vettel topping the timesheet four-thousandths ahead of Hamilton [that said, the Briton had a scruffy lap. On pure pace, the Mercedes was faster]. Rosberg was 3 rd but half a second off his team mate and just three-hundredths ahead of Raikkonen. Ricciard, Hulkenberg and Verstappen were next, with Bot

It’s the morning after the night before. As usual, the Circuit of the Americas produced a very entertaining. It was neither profitable nor detrimental to finances, though, as the evens No Safety Car tip came off, but Hamilton selfishly hogged first place on the first lap. [Apologies for any slight errors in the order things happened, I tend to write race reports from memory]. Off the line, it seemed to be formation flying, but Rosberg couldn’t quite keep ahead of Ricciardo, and the Aussie slipped into 2 nd . Further down the field, there was contact aplenty. Bunching of the field at the wide first corner meant Bottas and Hulkenberg made contact. The German was out and the Finn had a puncture. To make matters worse for Force India, Perez had contact with Kvyat, and the Mexican ended up more or less last, facing the wrong way, but was able to get going (Kvyat ended up with a 10s penalty). Button, by contrast, had a flyer, rising from 19 th to 11 th on lap 1. Meanwhile

After some hope of an upset, it was pretty much business as usual in qualifying. In Q1, both Manors and Nasr failed to progress. Rather surprisingly (perhaps due to an initial run on soft tyres and then getting traffic in the form of Palmer when he was on supersofts) Button only qualified 19 th ). Grosjean and Magnussen also failed to go any further (both men have been out-qualified by their team mates a bit recently). Unusually, Q2 saw six different teams get a driver eliminated. From fastest to slowest, we lost Perez, Alonso, Kvyat, Gutierrez, Palmer and Ericsson. Ultimately, Hamilton got pole fairly comfortably, two-tenths up on Rosberg. However, most of the races at the circuit have been won from 2 nd on the grid, we know Hamilton’s starts are sometimes ropey, and the first corner is an overtaking opportunity, so anyone who cocks it up will get passed off the line and probably at turn 1 as well. Ricciardo and Verstappen are next. Interestingly, Verstappen and

Hulkenberg is off to Renault. Makes Palmer’s situation look shakier than an octogenarian tightrope walker, and Magnussen’s not safe either (rumour has it Renault also want Bottas). The move also opens up a seat at Force India, with some speculating Wehrlein or Ocon could get the gig. In the short term this may mean Hulkenberg not scoring as much but I think long-term it’s a wise risk to take. Force India really do punch above their weight but without a cash injection it’s hard to see them competing regularly for wins. In a couple of years, especially with new rules changes, Renault might. In other intriguing news, machinations may be afoot at McLaren. Ron Dennis’ contract is up soon and may not be renewed due to shareholders. Of which there are three. One is him (25%), another is the Bahraini Royal Family (50%) and Mansour Ojjeh has the final 25%. It’s believed the latter two are intended not to renew the contract. Excitingly, this could pave a way back for McLaren nic

Listened to this on the radio (unsure if I’ll bother with the highlights). From a betting perspective, red, but in a surprising way. No retirements at all must be unusual at Suzuka [edited: apparently it’s the second race in a row with no retirements, an F1 first. Should try and remember that for next time]. The race sounded reasonably entertaining, but we’ll see (I woke up before 5am and listened in bed) how much of it I can actually remember. Raikkonen got a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change. This shoved him down to 8 th and Vettel ended up 6 th . Both were on the slightly wet side of the track (only a little bit of moisture but enough to affect a start). Button started from the back, taking a ‘35’ place grid penalty to put new bits in his car. Off the line, Hamilton had an atrocious start, falling all the way down to 8 th . Perez had a cracker, storming to 3 rd ahead of Ricciardo (Hulkenberg rose to about 6 th ), and the Williams both went backwards. Vet