Malaysia: post-race analysis 2016
A cracking race, with
drama from the first lap almost to the last. Strategic cunning,
mishap, great drives and grave misfortune. And the bet even came off,
despite three or four Virtual Safety Cars.
At the instigation of
the formation lap, Massa discovered his throttle was being
disobedient and had to be wheeled into the pits. Whilst Williams
managed to get his car working, it meant a pit lane start in last
rather than a 10th place start.
Off the line it seemed
to be more or less formation flying. But Vettel miscalculated into
the first corner. He tagged Rosberg and spun his compatriot around,
and, in the process, ruined his own left front suspension, ending his
race. Clumsy, and not for the first time this year from Vettel. He
was out, and Rosberg was last (a Virtual Safety Car came out here,
neutralising the race for a couple of laps). At the end of lap 1
Alonso had leapt up to 12th and Perez had risen to around
3rd.
Several cars took
advantage of the VSC to pit and lose relatively less time (because
the field was moving more slowly than it would normally), including
Rosberg.
Meanwhile, Massa’s
misfortune continued unabated as he almost immediately got a front
puncture on his hard tyres and required an extra pit stop.
Verstappen, just ahead
of Raikkonen (Hamilton leading, Ricciardo 2nd) pitted
early, shoved on some soft tyres and was racing around rapidly.
However, as the hard tyre was mandatory the Dutchman was guaranteed
to require another pit stop. When Hamilton and then Ricciardo pitted
for hard tyres with about 35 laps to go, it was unclear whether
they’d be able to make it to the end. Verstappen pitted a few laps
later for hard tyres.
Raikkonen had slid back
a bit, unable to keep up with Hamilton or the Red Bulls. Rosberg had
risen swiftly through the field, and was now 5th, right
behind the Finn.
Magnussen suffered some
damage on lap 1 and, some time later, was retired as his pace was
woeful. Grosjean retired when his rear brakes didn’t work and a
corner became a straight (another VSC came out here). The other Haas
of Gutierrez was left with three wheels after one of them went
walkies after a pit stop.
At this stage the
biggest questions were whether Rosberg could pass Raikkonen and if
team orders would be used at Red Bull. Verstappen had caught
Ricciardo (running 2-3 at this point) and was clearly faster, yet the
Aussie fended off the talented Dutchman with some fantastic driving.
It was reminiscent of Hamilton and Rosberg in Bahrain 2014.
And then Hamilton’s
engine burst into flames, with 15 laps or so to go.
The Briton lamented his
fate over the radio and peeled off the track. Both the Red Bulls
pitted. Despite his best efforts, Verstappen was unable to get close
enough to attempt a pass. They were both racing properly, although
with a couple of laps to go Verstappen appeared to ease off.
Ricciardo scored a
first win of the year and, after the Spanish strategy not going his
way and Monaco tyres going missing, it must have been especially
sweet. He dedicated his triumph to the late Jules Bianchi.
A little way down the
road, Rosberg pulled a dodgems move to get past Raikkonen. The
stewards took a dim view and handed the German a 10s time penalty for
causing a collision, but as Rosberg finished more than that ahead of
Raikkonen he retained 3rd.
Raikkonen got 4th
which, I think, was the most he could’ve achieved given his car.
The Ferrari just wasn’t a match for either Red Bull or Mercedes,
which must be concerning. In relative terms they’ve gone backwards
since last year. Vettel also needs to calm down a bit.
Bottas ended up 5th
and Massa 13th. Can’t blame Massa for that, as he had
two slices of horrendous misfortune (pit lane start and then a
puncture on a new set of tyres). Good from Bottas to finish ahead of
both Force Indias (although the latter team outscored Williams
overall).
Perez was 6th
and Hulkenberg 8th, two more solid points finishes from a
very good driver pairing (although rumours circulate Hulkenberg might
be sought by Renault, and perhaps Perez by Haas).
Alonso’s 7th
is quite fantastic given he started last (well, last but one as Massa
started from the pit lane). It's also a testament to the improving pace of
the McLaren. Button’s 9th means he scores in his 300th
race start and that McLaren gets a nice double points finish. Still a
long way to go, but progress is being made.
Palmer’s 10th
is the first point he scores in F1, and nice to see after he threw
away a comparable finish (Hungary, I think) with a spin. That said, I
still think he’ll be thrown overboard for next season.
So, Rosberg’s race
swung from total disaster to actually extending his title lead by a
hefty margin. Here’s how things stand:
Rosberg 288
Hamilton 265
A 23 point gap with
five races to go is not yet comfortable. Much better than Rosberg
could’ve hoped for after lap 1 (or even before qualifying) but if
Rosberg’s engine blows up at the next race and Hamilton wins, that
becomes a 2 point Hamilton lead. However, I’ve got to say Rosberg
is the favourite for the title right now.
Constructors:
Mercedes 553
Red Bull 359
Ferrari 313
Force India 124
Williams 121
McLaren 62
Toro Rosso 47
Haas 28
Renault 8
Manor 1
Sauber 0
I think all those
places will stay as they are. McLaren have further cemented their 6th
position, and Force India have very slightly increased their lead
over Williams. It’ll be very tight between those teams, but I
suspect Force India will bag 4th.
I switch off after the
racing finishes but do check to see if anything interesting emerges.
Hamilton’s post-race comments about engine failures only happening
to him and the situation not sitting right with him may be indicative
that the psychological pressure is getting to him. After all, a
driver can alter his style or learn new circuits and rely on his
skill and judgement to improve performance, but nobody can defend
against his engine exploding. It is undeniable that Hamilton has had
atrocious luck this year, and fought back brilliantly to turn a
deficit into a small lead, only to lose it again and have the deficit
extended by sheer misfortune.
It's worth recalling that a McLaren reliability failure (one, after a spate) helped persuade Hamilton to jump ship. I'm not suggesting he'll leave Mercedes, just that poor reliability might be the thing he finds hardest to handle.
Next weekend, we’re
in Japan at the rather good Suzuka circuit. Hamilton will be hoping
to bounce back rapidly, and he has an excellent record at the track.
If Rosberg extends his lead again, things will start looking ominous
indeed for Hamilton, and very promising for the German.
Morris Dancer
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