United States: pre-race 2016
After some hope of an
upset, it was pretty much business as usual in qualifying.
In Q1, both Manors and
Nasr failed to progress. Rather surprisingly (perhaps due to an
initial run on soft tyres and then getting traffic in the form of
Palmer when he was on supersofts) Button only qualified 19th).
Grosjean and Magnussen also failed to go any further (both men have
been out-qualified by their team mates a bit recently).
Unusually, Q2 saw six
different teams get a driver eliminated. From fastest to slowest, we
lost Perez, Alonso, Kvyat, Gutierrez, Palmer and Ericsson.
Ultimately, Hamilton
got pole fairly comfortably, two-tenths up on Rosberg. However, most
of the races at the circuit have been won from 2nd on the
grid, we know Hamilton’s starts are sometimes ropey, and the first
corner is an overtaking opportunity, so anyone who cocks it up will
get passed off the line and probably at turn 1 as well.
Ricciardo and
Verstappen are next. Interestingly, Verstappen and the Mercedes will
start on the more durable soft tyre, whereas Ricciardo starts on the
supersoft. It’s unclear whether this means the Aussie will have to
make two stops to his rivals one, or if he’ll get an early undercut
(but risk traffic problems). The others in the top 10 are on the
supersoft.
Raikkonen out-qualified
Vettel on the Ferrari third row. The Ferraris have looked distinctly
outclassed by the Red Bulls all weekend. I do wonder if the team will
end up going backwards next year.
Hulkenberg, Bottas,
Massa and Sainz round out the top 10. Hulkenberg was seven-tenths
ahead of Perez in Q2 (bit odd, I wonder if the Mexican had traffic).
Raikkonen appears to
have a new gearbox, but no penalty (I habitually check Twitter just
in case something dramatic’s happened, like Verstappen getting
moved to Red Bull mid-season).
Initial betting
thoughts:
Hulkenberg top 6
Perez to score
Alonso to score
Hulkenberg’s only
1.66 to be top 6. Given it requires a problem for a car ahead (on
pace, he’s 7th at best), this seems remarkably
tightfisted.
Perez and Alonso are
1.4 and 1.72 to score. Too short to appeal.
Perhaps it’s because
I’m half-asleep, but those were the only betting ideas I had off
the top of my head. I had a quick look at the markets, but, frankly,
nothing leapt out at me (possible I might’ve seen the below
suggestions, which were made before I perused).
Mr. Sandpit of
politicalbetting.com suggested No Safety Car, available at evens at
Ladbrokes. And, Rosberg to lead lap 1 at 4.8 on Betfair, (Ricciardo
is 5.5 on Ladbrokes).
After much
contemplation, I decided No Safety Car at evens is value. There have
been four races at this circuit. Half saw safety cars. However, one
of those was wet (last year). The Virtual Safety Car and mostly good
reliability (Hamilton’s engine woes have typically been in
qualifying) plus the 1:3 in dry races makes evens value, I think.
Anyway, one and a half
of these tips come from Mr. Sandpit, so do blame/praise him depending
how they work out.
Tips:
One stake split between
Ricciardo (5.5, Ladbrokes) and Rosberg (4.8, Betfair) to lead lap 1.
No Safety Car, evens,
Ladbrokes
The race starts at the
somewhat irksome time of 8pm. The post-race ramble will be tomorrow
morning.
Morris Dancer
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