Japan: post-race analysis 2016

Listened to this on the radio (unsure if I’ll bother with the highlights). From a betting perspective, red, but in a surprising way. No retirements at all must be unusual at Suzuka [edited: apparently it’s the second race in a row with no retirements, an F1 first. Should try and remember that for next time]. The race sounded reasonably entertaining, but we’ll see (I woke up before 5am and listened in bed) how much of it I can actually remember.

Raikkonen got a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change. This shoved him down to 8^th and Vettel ended up 6^th. Both were on the slightly wet side of the track (only a little bit of moisture but enough to affect a start). Button started from the back, taking a ‘35’ place grid penalty to put new bits in his car.

Off the line, Hamilton had an atrocious start, falling all the way down to 8^th. Perez had a cracker, storming to 3^rd ahead of Ricciardo (Hulkenberg rose to about 6^th), and the Williams both went backwards.

Vettel, Raikkonen and Ricciardo all made headway, whilst Hamilton seemed unable to get past whoever was 7^th. At this stage, it looked abysmal for the reigning world champion.

Hamilton then started making progress. He passed the chap ahead of him and, during the first pit stops got lucky. Two chaps [perhaps Raikkonen and Ricciardo], with whom he was going to be nip and tuck, pitted first but got bottled up behind Palmer. This enabled him to get past both of them at once.

Hamilton was now up to 4^th, and homing in on Vettel. The Ferraris and Red Bulls had been pretty competitive all weekend. Rosberg had a small but stable lead over 2nd-placed Verstappen.

Hamilton got very close to Vettel then pitted. Ferrari, oddly (having cunningly undercut Ricciardo with Raikkonen) left Vettel out. When the German finally made his pit stop, he was on soft tyres to Hamilton’s hard, but behind.

After a terrible start and a few laps of no progress, the Briton had climbed all the way to 3^rd. Vettel got very close with his soft tyres but was unable to effect a pass and faded. Hamilton closed in on Verstappen and spent a good 10 laps or so damned close, but the Dutchman is a wily (and occasionally dubious) defender, and Hamilton was unable to get past.

It was a strong recovery drive, but this still sees Rosberg chalk up another win and extend his lead a little bit more.

Now, it may appear I’ve talked almost exclusively about Hamilton. That’s partly because his race was interesting and partly because he was what 90% of the radio coverage was about [perhaps understandable, but the joy of moving pictures is that you can ignore the commentary and see for yourself, with timings as well as the footage, what is going on].

Behind the podium places were Vettel and Raikkonen. Ferrari must be a bit irked to miss out on a podium, but finishing there after starting 6^th and 8^th is encouraging. On pace, the Ferrari was a little better than the Red Bull this weekend.

Ricciardo was next up. A slightly lacklustre result to be last driver of the top three teams. Perez and Hulkenberg were next, with another strong performance for Force India (for those wondering, the radio reckoned $3.5m is the difference between 4^th and 5^th in the Constructors’. Bit surprised it isn’t more).

Williams recovered to finish 9^th and 10^th, Massa leading Bottas, but they lose more ground to Force India in their tight inter-team battle.

As I mentioned before, there was not a single retirement. Not only that, but this is the second consecutive Japanese Grand Prix to achieve that, an F1 first. I’ve made a note for next year, and will try to remember to check the To Be Classified and Number of Total Classified Finishers markets in 2017.

Surprisingly, those just out of the points were Grosjean and Palmer. The Ferrari engine in particular seemed to do quite nicely at Suzuka. Worth mentioning the McLarens, who had a bloody awful race, finishing 16^th (Alonso) and 18^th (Button).

So, how are the standings?

Rosberg 313

Hamilton 280

Rosberg has a 33 point lead with four races remaining. If he finishes 2^nd at all of them, he takes the title. If he wins the next two, he only needs one 8^th place finish at one of the last two races for the title. If he has a DNF next time and Hamilton wins, the lead falls to 8 points. In short, Rosberg’s position is not unassailable but it is very strong.

A potential fly in the ointment, for one or both Mercedes drivers, is that Red Bull and Ferrari seem closer, which means their capacity to gum things up and get between Silver Arrows seems increased. That could help Hamilton. But if he’s on the receiving end, it could end his hopes of retaining the title.

Constructors’:

Force India 134

Williams 124

Only included these two because I think the rest are largely settled. In the battle for 4^th, Force India has a 10 point margin, equivalent to finishing 5^th. The teams are, as suggested, the next best after the big three, with McLaren sometimes nipping at their heels. I think Force India has the legs on Williams, which has been sliding slowly down the competitive order since about 2014. I think it’ll end this way.

An aside: after the race, as usual, I logged on and checked the BBC livefeed. Mark Gallagher, BBC Radio 5 Live F1 analyst [apparently], reckoned the momentum had slightly fallen away from Hamilton.

…. do pay attention. Rosberg’s beaten Hamilton in the last five races, of which the German won four. The last time Hamilton beat Rosberg was in July.

The next race is in a fortnight, in the US (followed a week later by Mexico). The last two races are in Brazil and Abu Dhabi.

Morris Dancer