Japan: pre-race 2016
By and large, Noah’s
ark was the order of the day, with many drivers qualifying
two-by-two. An interesting session which sets up the race quite
intriguingly. Shame Vettel has a three place grid penalty, though.
The first session went
largely to script, with the Saubers and Manors at the back. Magnussen
was 18th and the (small) surprise departure was Button in
17th. He’s struggled a bit with set-up and the McLaren
has been a bit disappointing on pace.
The second part of
qualifying saw Alonso and Palmer at the back end, with the Toro
Rossos (suffering now from the 2015 Ferrari engine they’ve got) in
the middle. Surprisingly, Bottas and Massa both exited at this stage
as well, pushed down by the Force Indias and the unexpected pace of
the Haas (both Grosjean and Gutierrez making Q3 for the first time).
Throughout the first
two sessions Rosberg had been fastest. But in the first runs of the
third session, Hamilton was top dog, Rosberg two-tenths down.
Although the Ferraris were next and then the Red Bulls, all top 6
were covered by half a second, and 3rd-6th (after the
first runs) were covered by a tenth of a second.
On the second run,
Rosberg improved, and Hamilton was unable to match him (barely a
hundredth of a second adrift). However, Rosberg’s had a few poles
at Suzuka, Hamilton’s had none [weirdly] but does have a number of
wins.
Raikkonen and Vettel
were next, but remember the German has a three place grid penalty so
will start 7th. Must say I’m a little surprised just how
tasty the Ferrari was looking.
Verstappen and
Ricciardo are next. Red Bull may also contend for the podium on race
pace. Perez, Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Gutierrez round out the top 10.
The Ferrari engine
seems to be working very nicely, aided by the Mercedes being turned
down a notch. Seeing the Haas ahead of both Williams and pretty much
matching the Force India was quite a surprise (also highlights that
the Mercedes team itself has great aerodynamic strength to still be
faster than all rivals).
Checking the weather
forecast reveals the race is very likely to be dry.
Potential bets:
Raikkonen podium
Red Bull top score
Grosjean not to be
classified
Raikkonen is 2.37 for a
podium. He’s been driving well and the Ferrari looks nice but the
odds are a bit stingy given there are likely four chaps in the hunt
for the solitary non-Mercedes podium place.
Red Bull are 6 to top
score. It’s a bit tricky to try and work out value here. If the
Mercedes get around ok with neither reliability nor collision, it’s
hard to see them being beaten on raw speed. That said, the Red Bull
is reportedly good on race pace and both their drivers are vying to
be number one within the team. I think Ferrari less likely to take
advantage of any Mercedes weakness because Vettel’s been off the boil
this year and strategy calls have often been wrong.
Grosjean is 3.5 not to
be classified. This is seriously tempting. He’s failed to be
classified in two of the last three races, and he’s worried about
the Haas’ brakes. Not only that, Suzuka’s an old style circuit
with a combination of close barriers and gravel traps. A mistake,
reliability failure or collision could easily be terminal.
Of those, the Grosjean
bet appeals to me most. I had a quick perusal of the markets and saw
the following:
Vettel to win, each
way, 34 (1/3 the odds if he is 2nd).
The Red Bulls and
Raikkonen are 15 to win. Vettel starts behind them (and Perez) in
7th. However, his starts have usually been either
catastrophic (cf last week) or rather good. The Ferrari will be
superior to the Red Bull on top speed and has the edge on tyre wear.
Vettel also has a very good record in Japan, finishing on the podium
in all races from 2009 to 2015. Against that is the excellent driving
of the Red Bulls, superior strategy, possible superior overall pace
and the potential for Vettel’s first lap to also be his last.
However, I do think his odds are out of kilter with the 15s for the
other three.
It also requires either
a Mercedes to screw up in some way or great fortune (perhaps with
safety car timing) for Vettel. But then, the odds are long.
In the end, I can only
tip Grosjean not to be classified at 3.5. Given the track’s limits, its
tightness, and his car, I think there’s a pretty good chance he
won’t make the finish. Any mistake or reliability issue or
collision has a high probability of ending his race, and his car is
not the sturdiest.
The race, joyously,
starts at 6am, UK time. I’ll see if I can manage to wake up in
time.
Morris Dancer
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