Japan: pre-race 2016

By and large, Noah’s ark was the order of the day, with many drivers qualifying two-by-two. An interesting session which sets up the race quite intriguingly. Shame Vettel has a three place grid penalty, though.

The first session went largely to script, with the Saubers and Manors at the back. Magnussen was 18th and the (small) surprise departure was Button in 17th. He’s struggled a bit with set-up and the McLaren has been a bit disappointing on pace.

The second part of qualifying saw Alonso and Palmer at the back end, with the Toro Rossos (suffering now from the 2015 Ferrari engine they’ve got) in the middle. Surprisingly, Bottas and Massa both exited at this stage as well, pushed down by the Force Indias and the unexpected pace of the Haas (both Grosjean and Gutierrez making Q3 for the first time).

Throughout the first two sessions Rosberg had been fastest. But in the first runs of the third session, Hamilton was top dog, Rosberg two-tenths down. Although the Ferraris were next and then the Red Bulls, all top 6 were covered by half a second, and 3rd-6th (after the first runs) were covered by a tenth of a second.

On the second run, Rosberg improved, and Hamilton was unable to match him (barely a hundredth of a second adrift). However, Rosberg’s had a few poles at Suzuka, Hamilton’s had none [weirdly] but does have a number of wins.

Raikkonen and Vettel were next, but remember the German has a three place grid penalty so will start 7th. Must say I’m a little surprised just how tasty the Ferrari was looking.

Verstappen and Ricciardo are next. Red Bull may also contend for the podium on race pace. Perez, Grosjean, Hulkenberg and Gutierrez round out the top 10.

The Ferrari engine seems to be working very nicely, aided by the Mercedes being turned down a notch. Seeing the Haas ahead of both Williams and pretty much matching the Force India was quite a surprise (also highlights that the Mercedes team itself has great aerodynamic strength to still be faster than all rivals).

Checking the weather forecast reveals the race is very likely to be dry.

Potential bets:
Raikkonen podium
Red Bull top score
Grosjean not to be classified

Raikkonen is 2.37 for a podium. He’s been driving well and the Ferrari looks nice but the odds are a bit stingy given there are likely four chaps in the hunt for the solitary non-Mercedes podium place.

Red Bull are 6 to top score. It’s a bit tricky to try and work out value here. If the Mercedes get around ok with neither reliability nor collision, it’s hard to see them being beaten on raw speed. That said, the Red Bull is reportedly good on race pace and both their drivers are vying to be number one within the team. I think Ferrari less likely to take advantage of any Mercedes weakness because Vettel’s been off the boil this year and strategy calls have often been wrong.

Grosjean is 3.5 not to be classified. This is seriously tempting. He’s failed to be classified in two of the last three races, and he’s worried about the Haas’ brakes. Not only that, Suzuka’s an old style circuit with a combination of close barriers and gravel traps. A mistake, reliability failure or collision could easily be terminal.

Of those, the Grosjean bet appeals to me most. I had a quick perusal of the markets and saw the following:
Vettel to win, each way, 34 (1/3 the odds if he is 2nd).

The Red Bulls and Raikkonen are 15 to win. Vettel starts behind them (and Perez) in 7th. However, his starts have usually been either catastrophic (cf last week) or rather good. The Ferrari will be superior to the Red Bull on top speed and has the edge on tyre wear. Vettel also has a very good record in Japan, finishing on the podium in all races from 2009 to 2015. Against that is the excellent driving of the Red Bulls, superior strategy, possible superior overall pace and the potential for Vettel’s first lap to also be his last. However, I do think his odds are out of kilter with the 15s for the other three.

It also requires either a Mercedes to screw up in some way or great fortune (perhaps with safety car timing) for Vettel. But then, the odds are long.

In the end, I can only tip Grosjean not to be classified at 3.5. Given the track’s limits, its tightness, and his car, I think there’s a pretty good chance he won’t make the finish. Any mistake or reliability issue or collision has a high probability of ending his race, and his car is not the sturdiest.

The race, joyously, starts at 6am, UK time. I’ll see if I can manage to wake up in time.


Morris Dancer

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