USA: pre-race 2022

The bet came off in the more minor way, but could’ve easily been fully green. Or, indeed, red. So a modestly good start to the weekend (not a fan of the later start time, though).

Q1 saw the traditional departure of Latifi, and both Haas cars also failed to make the grade. Not too surprising these days was the elimination of Ricciardo, whereas Ocon’s failure to progress was more unexpected, especially given the Alpine has been looking good this weekend.

Albon put in a good performance and was the fastest eliminated chap in Q2, ahead of Vettel, Gasly, Zhou Guanyu, and Tsunoda. Zhou should’ve made it through but his fastest lap was a tiny bit over the line and so the time got axed. This saved Norris’ bacon.

And so to Q3. It had the hallmarks of a classic Verstappen-Leclerc showdown though Sainz was not too far behind. As it happened, both Verstappen and Leclerc could’ve been faster on their finals laps, whereas Sainz nailed it to grab pole. Leclerc was second fastest (but is subject to a penalty, see below) and Verstappen was next. Perez was behind his team mate and ahead of Hamilton and Russell (who were separated by less than half a tenth). Stroll did well to set the seventh best time, ahead of Norris, Alonso, and Bottas.

 

If everyone performed to their best ability I think the order at the top would have been Ver-Lec-Sai, so while I was annoyed at the time the bet wasn’t fully green by less than a tenth, it could’ve easily failed entirely.

 

Penalties: Leclerc has a 10 place grid penalty for replacing bits and pieces, while Perez, Alonso, and Zhou each have 5 place penalties for similar.

The race should be sunny and dry throughout.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Sainz, win each way

Perez/Leclerc, podium

Russell, podium

 

Sainz is 5.5 to win each way. I do expect, as does the market, Verstappen to expand his collection of winner trophies but Sainz was quick throughout qualifying, his car looks a cut above Mercedes, and both Perez and Leclerc start some distance further back. He should end up second to Verstappen. Worth noting this is expected to be a two stop race, which may increase the chance for Ferrari to try and be clever, though…

The Mercedes looked a bit by themselves as a clear third on pace during qualifying, some distance behind the Red Bulls and Ferraris. This opens a chance for Perez or Leclerc to come from behind and steal the final place on the podium. The Mexican is 2.4 to do this and, surprisingly, the Monegasque is longer, at 2.75. These are worth considering.

Russell was half a tenth off Hamilton in qualifying and has been consistent over the course of the season. He’s 2.87 for the podium, way longer than Hamilton’s 1.73. On the flipside, as just mentioned, I fully expect Perez and Leclerc to be on the charge.

 

And so, to perusing the markets (which happened later than expected as, counterintuitively, the markets weren’t ready this morning).

No safety car, 2.5

 

Safety cars have been relatively rare at the Circuit of the Americas, and while they can happen anywhere I think the odds here are a little long, so I’ve backed no safety car at (boosted) 2.55.

There probably won’t be a post-race ramble given the start time of 8pm and my Monday morning tradition of doing some work, but we shall see.

 

Morris Dancer