EPL, Serie A, La Liga Thoughts 5 October 2022

As ever, bets are with Smarkets unless stated otherwise.


EPL

I’ve backed Bournemouth at home to beat Leicester at 3.65. Pretty straightforward, Leicester had a stonking 4-0 win over Forest last time out but that’s still their only win from eight attempts and a 75% loss rate. This could still go either way, Bournemouth’s numbers are skewed by facing so many top teams early on and a 9-0 drubbing from Liverpool, but 3.65 for them at home feels too long.

Backed Arsenal at 2.64 to beat Liverpool. The latter have had a faltering start and were lucky, via an own goal, not to lose at home last time out to Brighton. Did um and ah about this a bit but Arsenal have been looking good this season and Liverpool have, frankly, not.

 

Serie A

Backed Sassuolo to win at home versus Inter Milan at 4.5. They’re both mid-table, on 12 points apiece, and while Inter (away) has mostly faced top sides they still have a poor record. Sassuolo have won half their home matches, losing against Udinese and drawing against AC Milan.

 

La Liga 

Tend not to go for short odds away wins but Athletic Bilbao to beat Sevilla at 2.52 is my tip. In both of their away matches to date, Bilbao have scored four goals (and won). Sevilla’s home form is not fantastic and while losing to Barcelona is not exactly crime of the century they also could only draw against Valladolid (and lost to Atlético Madrid too). They’re just a point above relegation while Athletic Bilbao sit third in the table.

  

Morris Dancer

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