Serie A, Bundesliga Thoughts 18 October

Serie A

Just the one Italian tip, Udinese to win at home versus Torino at 2.06. The home side currently have nearly twice the points of the latter, and have won three of five home matches to date (drawing against other top teams Roma and Atalanta). Torino have lost three of five away matches so far this season, exceptions being against relegation strugglers Cremonese and Monza (who have similar points to Torino).

 

Bundesliga

Oddly, both Bundesliga bets are with Ladbrokes though you may get better odds if you wait a couple of days for Smarkets to get going.

At 4.75 I’ve backed Wolfsburg to win away at Bayer Leverkusen. Wolfsburg are ahead in the table and while they’ve only won on away match this year it was against Frankfurt which was quite counterintuitive. At home, Bayer Leverkusen have lost three times out of five. In recent matches, Wolfsburg had a decent home draw versus Borussia Mönchengladbach, drew away at Augsburg, and had a home win over Stuttgart. Bayer Leverkusen got thrashed away at Frankfurt, won convincingly at home versus Schalke, and lost substantially away to Bayern Munich. Was a bit on the fence about this, but I feel the odds are too long given Wolfsburg decent recent performances and Leverkusen not doing so well this season.

Also backed Union Berlin to win away at Bochum, at just 1.91. Short odds but this is literally top of the league to beat the bottom of the league. Union Berlin have a +12 goal difference, Bochum -18. Union Berlin have won seven matches so far, Bochum have won one. This isn’t guaranteed, of course, but I think it’s worth backing.

  

Morris Dancer

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