Japan: pre-race 2022

News! Gasly is off to Alpine next year, and Nyck de Vries will be joining Tsunoda at AlphaTauri. Might feel a bit miffed if I were Williams.

In Q1 there were not too many surprises as both Williams went out, Latifi being slowest making a mockery of his 5 place grid penalty for introducing Zhou Guanyu to the wall in Singapore, but there we are. We also lost Stroll and Magnussen here and Gasly, who was complaining (as was his team mate) very loudly about the state of his brakes.

Q2 was very tight indeed, with three drivers from different teams covered by a thousandth of a second at one point. When it all shook out Ricciardo was the fastest departing driver, three-thousandths off Vettel. Bottas, Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu, and Schumacher also left at this stage.

Heading into Q3 it was looking like a three horse race between Verstappen and the Ferraris, and so it proved. In the end, all three were covered by six-hundredths, with Verstappen and Leclerc on the front row and Sainz ending up third, starting alongside Perez (who was a third of a second slower).

Row three is Ocon and Hamilton, followed by Alonso and Russell, with Vettel and Norris rounding out the top 10.

It was also interesting to see that the Ferraris were keener to get going on an out lap and the Red Bull was very ginger, perhaps suggesting there’s a chance the latter might chew their tyres up more (but also be better if we have a safety car and ensuing restart).

There was a weird incident on the out lap. Verstappen was being very slow, and Norris (behind) much faster, but Verstappen turned suddenly left, weaving for tyre warmth, and the Briton had to take evasive action. Unsure if anything will come of it but there is an investigation underway, post-qualifying.

Update: Verstappen received a reprimand but retains pole.

Rain is possible for the race.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Sainz win each way

Sainz podium

Alonso top 6

Ricciardo points

 

Sainz is 13 to win each way. Shorter than Hamilton, which is nuts. The Spaniard is essentially on pace with Verstappen and Leclerc. If showers occur during the race it’ll mix things up, and backing Sainz each way may make sense at the odds available.

He’s also 1.83 for a podium, which, on pace, seems highly likely. He’s very close to the two ahead of him and substantially faster than Perez behind. The Mercedes may be good in the wet but in the dry it’s some way back.

Alonso is 1.7 to be top 6, and starts in seventh. Short odds but may still be value as he’s been driving well lately and the Alpine looks good at Suzuka. 

Ricciardo starts in eleventh, and 1.91 to score. Probably the right odds, could go either way.

 

A day earlier than usual, I browsed the markets to see if anything more appealing showed up.

Ricciardo beat Norris, 3.5

Ricciardo win group 3 (Vettel+Bottas), 2.87

Ricciardo starts a single place behind Norris and has been driving well, only narrowly missing on Q3. 3.5 for a single place is not bad. 

Also for the Aussie driver (eleventh), beating Vettel (ninth) and Bottas (twelfth) at 2.87 is interesting. The Alfa Romeo has been a little breakable, and (apart from the last time I backed a McLaren) the orange team has been pretty good on reliability. On pace, it should perhaps be evens if not faster than the Aston Martin. But it does mean making up a couple of places at least.

 

Frankly, nothing stands out as being spectacular and the possibility of rain makes things a shade iffy as well. 

Given Leclerc’s bad habit of going backwards from start to finish, I’ve decided to back Sainz each way for the win at 14 (with boost). Plus there’s a chance the Red Bull will savage their tyres and Ferrari might be able to handle that side of things better.

The race starts at 6am. We’ll see if I manage to be up in time.

 

Morris Dancer