EPL, Serie A Thoughts 28 October 2022

As always, bets are made with Smarkets unless noted otherwise.

EPL

Backed Brentford to win at home versus Wolves at 2.26. Wolves’ recent away form is a loss to Crystal Palace, a loss to Chelsea, and a loss to West Ham. Brentford’s most recent home results are drawing with Chelsea, beating Brighton, and losing to Arsenal. Overall, Brentford are a reasonable but not staggering margin ahead of Wolves in the table but the home advantage would appear to make their odds value.

 

Serie A

Backed Atalanta away to beat Empoli either 1-0 or 2-0 at odds of 9 and 10.5 respectively (split one stake evenly). Atalanta should win this and have won four of five away matches with those scores (split evenly). While Empoli do often score at home Atalanta has one of the best defences in the league.

Also backed Spezia to win at home versus Fiorentina at 4.5. It’s true Spezia have only won two of five home matches, but in each of their draws (they haven’t lost at home yet) they scored twice. Away, Fiorentina have not won a single away match this season and have only scored two away goals (an interesting contrast, Spezia seem to only show home form and Fiorentina is bad away).

 

Morris Dancer

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