Mexico: pre-race 2022

The Sainz qualifying bet could have come off but he lost almost half a second in the first sector. But for that, a great chance he could’ve parked in 2^nd in the surprisingly large gap available, so a bit irked he was undone by the Ferrari’s difficulties in the first sector (he nailed it in Q2 but both he and Leclerc struggled in Q3).

In Q1, Schumacher put in a cracking lap to easily escape, only for it to be eliminated as he clearly cut a corner while setting it. This put him out (ironically, allowing Magnussen, who has a grid penalty, to proceed). Both Aston Martins and both Williams were also out.

Q2 was very tight (the top four were covered by 0.014s). At the lower end, Ricciardo, Zhou Guanyu (notably slower than the impressive Bottas), Tsunoda, Gasly, and Magnussen were cut.

It was shaping up very nicely for a classic super close pole position shootout as the Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull all set almost identical times in Q2. But it was not to be. When it came to the crunch, the Mercedes could not live with the pace of Verstappen, and while the Ferrari had the potential to get close or challenge both drivers on their second runs buggered up the first sector (where the car had struggled quite a lot) and lost over four-tenths.

This led to an easy-looking Verstappen pole, two-tenths ahead of Russell, who was just five-thousandths faster than his team mate. But the long run to the first corner makes it great to start right behind the chap in pole for the slipstream benefit. Perez was next, just four-hundredths behind Hamilton.

Row three has Sainz and Bottas, and that is no fluke. The Finn had been very fast all through qualifying, though it remains to be seen if race pace can match his excellent qualifying speed.

Leclerc has to settle for heading row four, ahead of Norris. Alonso and Ocon have laid out the Alpine beach towel on the fifth row.

 

Note that Stroll has a three place grid penalty for what happened last time out, and using an excess of parts has Magnussen dropping five places. The weather is expected to be dry throughout.

Early betting thoughts:

Hamilton, lead lap 1

Sainz/Leclerc, not to be classified

In recent races the chap starting third on the grid has ended up winning. I think that may be a push but the key element could repeat, and that’s getting the lead off the line thanks to the slipstream of the driver ahead. Hamilton is only 5 for this with Ladbrokes, 5.5 with Betfair at the time of writing. But it may well be value. 

Sainz and Leclerc repeatedly, especially Leclerc, struggled in the first sector. This is bad when trying to be fast. Squirming around to regain control is even worse when there are over a dozen other cars trying to pass you. Sainz is 4.33 to not be classified, Leclerc is 5.5.

 

 Off-colour, so just decided to back Hamilton (driver from third) to lead lap 1 with Ladbrokes at 5.25 (boosted).

 Again, due to late timing there likely won’t be a post-race ramble. Also, a sad reminder that the fantastic Brazilian Grand Prix is once again being contaminated with the wretched nonsense of a ‘sprint race’. Humbug.

 

Morris Dancer