Singapore: pre-race 2022

It was still wet for qualifying which led to a very entertaining session as the circuit (very slowly) dried.

Wet but not raining, inters were the order of the day for Q1. Both Williams failed to progress, but more surprising were the trio of Bottas and (especially) Ricciardo and Ocon. 

Q2 saw the departure of both Aston Martins and Zhou Guanyu, al of whom had attempted to get through on the soft tyres. But the shock departure was undoubtedly Russell, on the inter but strangely slow. Schumacher also left at this stage. 

Come Q3 most of the drivers opted for softs and while they were initially seconds off Tsunoda’s inter pace this soon reversed. Hamilton was a man come to life, and seemed destined for a serious tilt at pole. Leclerc was also looking very good, and while Verstappen was quick uncharacteristic errors led to him abandoning multiple laps.

The last would have got him pole. But the team ordered the baffled Dutchman to box, presumably due to a fuel concern. His team mate, meanwhile, got 2nd, a couple of hundredths off Leclerc’s impressive pole. Hamilton was half a tenth off pole but has to make do with 3rd, lining up alongside Sainz.

The third row is Alonso and Norris, both of whom looked very good in qualifying. Gasly and Verstappen are row four. Magnussen and Tsunoda round out the top 10. If it’s dry, this doesn’t look good for Verstappen’s win prospects, but the top three will all be rather more hopeful.

 

Rain is possible for the race, so bear that and the implications of a safety car in mind when placing bets. No penalties appear to have altered the grid from qualifying results.

Early betting thoughts:

Perez win
Hamilton win
Alonso podium

Perez starts second and has a good car, plus he’s generally well-suited to street circuits. His team mate was much quicker but a series of errors by him and one last one by the team on fuel means Verstappen is too far back to be an initial threat (and passing is not easy on the circuit, though speed surplus means he may try something on strategy should he ever get clear air). Perez has odds of 11, available each way, which is excessively generous, I think.

Hamilton was reasonably good in wet/drying conditions but once it was more dry than wet he looked to join a triumvirate of Leclerc and Verstappen potentially battling for pole. Starting third but just half a tenth off the pace, a (relative to speed) poor starting position may compromise his hopes. His odds of 3.5 for starting third feel a little short to me. He’s very good, but his odds are not on a circuit notorious for being difficult passing around and if it does rain that is especially detrimental, it seems, to Mercedes relative to Ferrari and Red Bull.

Alonso was a bit in No Man’s Land in qualifying, four-tenths off Sainz and six-tenths ahead of Norris. He does tend to start very well indeed and is better in races than qualifying. On pace, he should not be troubling the podium. But rain, the start, and the Ferrari strategy team (or Red Bull forgetting to put enough fuel in Perez’s car) offer an outside shot of a podium. Alonso’s odds of finishing top 3 are 7 which feels about right to me.

 

And so, following the example of the demon lord Astaroth, I then perused the markets in search of value.

Perez to beat Verstappen, 2.4
Sainz to beat Leclerc, 3.5
Over 16.5 classified finishers, 2.25

Perez starts 2nd, Verstappen starts 8th. It is true that the Dutchman is much faster and a helpful safety car could reverse that but all else being equal you’d expect Verstappen to make up a couple of places on the first lap and then get bogged down. 2.4 is worth considering for the Mexican to finish ahead.

Sainz does start three places behind Leclerc. However, the Monegasque’s best case scenario at the start is retaining his place whereas the Spaniard has scope to advance. In addition, Sainz is sharper than Leclerc when it comes to rebuffing Ferrari’s exciting strategy calls (cf Monaco). 3.5 for him to beat his team mate is reasonable.

If it were certain to be dry I’d be slightly tempted to back 17+ classified finishers at 2.25. Recent races here have seen non-classified numbers of 3, 1, and 8, so the bet would come good two-thirds of the time but has odds over evens. However, the potential for rain does put me off.

 

Anyway, nothing looks as good to me as the chap starting 2nd being 11 (12 with boost) to win. I’ve backed it each way. (NB if you followed my early tip on PB to back this at 23 each way then obviously you might want to just hold onto that).

 

Morris Dancer

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