China: pre-race 2018

The ‘qualifying’ bet for Raikkonen to be top 3 in third practice came off. He was 2^nd, again, though I was slightly surprised it was his team mate rather than a Mercedes that pipped him.

For the sake of completeness, third practice had Vettel almost half a second up on Raikkonen, with Bottas three-tenths of his countryman. Verstappen and Hamilton followed, with Magnussen, Perez, Ocon, Sainz and Sirotkin rounding out the top 10. (Magnussen this year seems to have the measure of Grosjean, early on, at least).

Before qualifying commenced there was drama. It turned out Ricciardo needed a new engine but there was no complete engine to be plugged in. His engineers has most of the engine and then had to scavenge parts from the dud unit, forcing them to work flat out and only just get the Aussie out in time. One imagines Red Bull will not be thrilled with Renault.

Out Ricciardo went, just making it for a fast lap in Q1. It wasn’t perfect but it was good enough to see him through. The same could not be said for the Saubers, who remained rooted to the foot of the table. Stroll was scarcely faster and his team mate Sirotkin also exited at this stage. So too did Gasly, qualifying 17^th. One imagines his fantastic 4^th last weekend feels rather a long time ago.

In Q2 was lost the second Toro Rosso, and both McLarens. Ocon also failed to escape and so, somewhat surprisingly, did Magnussen. Despite Ocon’s departure this circuit is looking a little better for Force India. And they need that, after a surprisingly weak start to the season. Initially, Ferrari had been well ahead of Mercedes (all on soft tyres, unlike everyone else), but the Silver Arrows did a second run and were about a third of a second ahead. Was the Ferrari goose to be cooked in Q3?

After the first runs in the last session Raikkonen led his team mate, the Ferrari pair a clear margin ahead of Bottas and Hamilton. The Red Bulls were next, a tenth or so off the Briton. The second runs swapped the order of the Ferraris (it was damned close, though), whilst keeping Bottas and Hamilton as they were (the Englishman aborted his lap after a lacklustre first two sectors). Verstappen outqualified Ricciardo to lead the third row. Hulkenberg and Perez comprise row four, with Sainz half a tenth ahead of Grosjean.

Worth noting it was unusually cold in Shanghai, just 15 Celsius or so. Similar temperature is forecast for tomorrow, though it’s expected to be sunny rather than overcast. Given it seems the Ferrari is tastier in the hot and Mercedes handier in the cool, this may not bode well for the Silver Arrows. That said, the Mercedes weakness is the stickiest tyre which they probably won’t use at all in the race, so I’d expect race pace at the sharp end to be rather close.

How long will medium tyres last? Will starting on the ultrasoft require an extra pit stop? That won’t affect the top four and is, therefore, unlikely to alter how the podium looks. However, it could lead to more churn at the lower end of the points than we’ve seen in recent years. That may play into McLaren’s hands, although with a straight a mile long (almost literally) they may not have a fun time at the race. Magnussen and Ocon, however, could benefit from tyre choice in 11^th and 12^th.

With that in mind, early thoughts on bets were:

Renault double points

Hamilton podium

Renault are 1.9 for a double points finish, starting from 7^th and 9^th. I am a bit concerned that they could suffer from losing out due to starting on the ultrasoft tyres.

Hamilton is 1.44 for a podium. Highly likely, but the first corner can be tricky, and it’s rather short.

Perusing the markets led me to consider:

Raikkonen, first lap leader, 7

Hamilton, win (only), 5 [5.3 on Betfair]

The Raikkonen bet is simply because he starts 2^nd, and that side is reportedly grippier. Also, the Mercedes may suffer from the Red Bulls starting on the ultrasoft.

The race pace is difficult to assess at this stage. Relatively, harder tyres should favour the Mercedes, but we just don’t know. If it does favour them, Hamilton has a great record in China. But 5 from 4^th could be better.

To be honest, nothing really grabs me at this stage. One of those situations where I’d probably sit it out if I didn’t offer a tip on every race since the latter part of the 2009 season. Anyway.

After wandering with the hound a few more specials had appeared. One was Hamilton, Magnussen, Hulkenberg, and Sirotkin to each win their respective groups at 13. Looks quite interesting, although with four contingencies plenty of scope for it to go wrong.

Struggling quite a bit, so decided to check the qualifying result again. It’s intriguing for the race but frustrating for betting because the Mercedes start on the soft, which may save them a pit stop, but they’re at risk from the ultrasoft-shod Red Bulls behind them, but that likely compromises the Red Bulls for the win/podium. The race pace of the top three teams could all be very tight.

After a lot of prevarication, I’m tipping:

Hamilton, win, 5.4 (Betfair), hedged at evens

Hamilton has a great record in China, the Mercedes looks good on race pace, he starts on the grippier side of the track and should have the chance of a good duel with Vettel. Can’t pretend to be Captain Confident about this, unlike some other race bets, but it’s the best value that I can see.

Anyway, race starts at a little after 7am, UK time.

Morris Dancer