Bahrain: pre-qualifying 2018

From PB:

“F1: Bahrain and China next, back-to-back races. Will be interesting to see if the Ferrari advantage on the straights is maintained. If so, that'll be indicative of an actual edge, if not, the advantage over Mercedes in Australia will be down to differing set-up. [The straight line speed advantage was proven by Karun Chandhok when he looked at Hamilton and Raikkonen’s qualifying laps side-by-side].

Also, if they have such an edge that will make roadblock strategies (Raikkonen holding people up for Vettel, mostly) viable. Being faster in the twisty bits only works when you're ahead or corner passing is possible. At many circuits now, that's tricky. Also, the Mercedes still looks rough in traffic.”

I don’t normally divert from F1, but congratulations are due to Billy Monger, the 18 year old racer who last year had both legs amputated. He made his British F3 début recently, and finished 3^rd. His ultimate objective is to reach F1, so we’ll see how he gets on.

Anyway, back to F1. Liberty revealed their vision for the future of the sport on Friday, which included a more level and meritocratic financial playing field. One imagines the bigger teams, especially Ferrari, will be less than delighted at the sound of that. There’s also a desire for a cost cap and more overtaking, amongst other things. However, there’s not a huge amount of detail, which is mildly surprising.

In first practice, Ricciardo was fastest, ahead of Bottas and Raikkonen. Vettel was next, then came Hamilton, who had somewhat fluffed his quick lap. Grosjean and Gasly followed, with Sainz, Magnussen and Hulkenberg rounding out the top 10.

Second practice had Raikkonen top, leading his team mate by a hundredth. Bottas was next, half a second down the road, just ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen and Ricciardo were very close to one another, but a quarter of a second adrift of the Mercedes (Verstappen complained of being slow on the straights). Hulkenberg, Gasly, Alonso and Vandoorne followed.

If straight line power matters, then it’s advantage Ferrari at the sharp end (but will it be enough to overcome the Mercedes’ pace advantage?) and Haas in the midfield.

Hamilton has a 5 place grid penalty for a gearbox change. It could be worse, though, as it could’ve conked out during the Australian race. That said, these penalties are damned tiresome. I read a comment on the BBC suggesting that instead of grid penalties there should be a points cost in the Constructors’, which seems like a good idea.

In third practice, Raikkonen was fastest by over half a second (although it’s worth noting Vettel wasn’t able to have a crack at a quick lap due to engine trouble). Verstappen and Ricciardo were next, separated by less than a tenth, with Hamilton, Vettel and Bottas some way back. Hulkenberg and Sainz led the midfield, with Gasly and Alonso rounding out the top 10.

Right now I’m thinking of backing Raikkonen for pole, and maybe laying Hamilton for a podium. He might qualify around third, and end up starting 8^th. The Mercedes struggles in dirty air more than other cars.

Ladbrokes seemed to take a little while to get the pole market up, but when it did the Finn’s odds were 4.33, which is about what I anticipated. That’s a third the odds for top 2, and I think is value. [He’s also available at 4.8 on Betfair if you prefer a bet-and-hedge approach. Worth noting the red tyre has only one good lap in it so I’d set the hedge around evens].

Raikkonen’s been top three all weekend, was comfortably fastest in third practice (not always representative, of course), Hamilton’s got a grid penalty and may set the car up for overtaking to gain ground rather than pure pace, and Vettel had some engine difficulties.

Because of the timing (qualifying is 4-5pm UK time) I might put up the pre-race article in the evening, or Sunday morning.

Morris Dancer