Azerbaijan: post-race analysis 2018
As expected, the
Azerbaijan Grand Prix was mostly tedious with startling bursts of
crashing excitement. Betting-wise, because I screwed up and split one
stake evenly rather than to equalise profitability, it was very
mildly red (with £10 stakes, it was down £1.25). Personally, I
finished slightly ahead thanks to an each way tip from Mr. Sandpit on
Raikkonen for the win (at 26). Also personally, I had a small bet on
Perez to win each way (top 2) at 401. He finished third. I suppose the plus
side is that it means I was thinking on the right lines. But it’s
still a bit frustrating to get so close...
Anyway. Off the start
line, as per the last two races, the pole-sitter (Vettel) retained
the lead. There was small carnage behind, however, with Raikkonen and
Ocon colliding (Ocon’s fault, and he paid for it with a DNF).
Hulkenberg looked to have clumsily tagged Sirotkin, who then hit
Alonso. The Spaniard was ok, the Russian was not, and also left the
race.
We had a lap 1 safety
car.
Vettel made the restart
very slow, bunching up the pack, and then we were underway again. In
the meantime, Raikkonen and Alonso had both pitted. Behind the leader
we had Hamilton and Bottas, then the two Red Bulls.
Hulkenberg, who was
just one place behind Sainz (roughly 7th), made a mistake
as took himself out. Disappointing, frankly.
Verstappen got past
Ricciardo, banging wheels but causing no damage. Some time later,
after much dicing, Ricciardo passed his team mate. Raikkonen,
meanwhile, was one place but ended up over 20s behind the Red Bulls
as the Ferrari struggled on the soft tyre (tyre temperatures were a
problem all race, with Red Bull and Mercedes struggling early on to
get temperatures up).
Behind the Finn, Sainz
and, surprisingly, Leclerc were doing well.
Hamilton pitted for the
soft tyre, and immediately struggled. Vettel pitted a little while
later for the same tyre, but Hamilton’s slow pace meant Bottas
might be able to come in and emerge ahead of his team mate, though it
would be tight.
The two Red Bulls
pitted, and the tyre temperature problem meant that Ricciardo, ahead
on track and with first call, emerged behind Verstappen. The two were
close together and the Aussie closed up on the very long straight.
Verstappen weaved about, which he isn’t meant to do (and for which
I’ve criticised him in the past). Ricciardo closed up a lot, locked
up, and ran into the back of his team mate, taking out the pair of
them.
A second safety car
emerged. Just as it seemed about to come in, Grosjean embarrassed
himself and annoyed every spectator by crashing into a wall in an
awkward spot, adding about five laps (and leaving a similar number to
be raced) to the safety car period.
Under the safety car
the top four (Bottas, Vettel, Hamilton and Raikkonen) all pitted for
the ultrasoft tyre. Behind them were Perez, Sainz (promoted thanks to
Grosjean’s mistake), and Leclerc.
Bottas repeated
Vettel’s slow strategy, but on the long straight Vettel went for
the pass and locked up hugely, putting him down to 4th,
and then 5th behind Perez. The win was Bottas’... until
with just a few laps to go he ran over debris, got a puncture and was
out of the race.
Out of nowhere, and as
undeserved as his loss in Australia was unlucky, Hamilton won.
Raikkonen, who had cocked up in qualifying, had an early collision
and not made much progress all race, was 2nd. Perez, who
dropped back early on but thereafter drove very well indeed, got 3rd
(and has more Azerbaijan podium finishes than any other man).
Vettel’s 4th
means he suffered damage to his title hopes but it could’ve been a
lot worse. A bit unlucky that he went for the win and paid a
significant price, but that was down to him. Sainz got 5th,
a great result for the Spaniard and his team, locked as it is in a
tight battle to be best of the rest.
But driver of the day
must be Charles Leclerc, the newcomer from Monaco who got 6th
in a Sauber. Excellent stuff.
Behind him, Alonso
fought back from a very early pit stop to claim 7th,
Stroll ended up 8th to get Williams their first points of
the year, Vandoorne nabbed 9th, making it yet another
double points finish for McLaren, and Hartley scored his first ever
point in 10th.
So, a tumultuous start,
and an eventful finish, with the odd moment of farce. Red Bull were a
bit slow early on but later showed decent pace and should’ve been
4th and 5th. Whose fault was the crash? Whilst
Verstappen shouldn’t be weaving about, and I’ve criticised him
for that in the past, it was Ricciardo’s fault, in my view.
Just remembered the
Raikkonen/Ocon incident is under investigation. A 10s time penalty
would cause Mr. Sandpit's tip to become a loser, but my tip on Perez
to become a winner.
For what it's worth, I
think they'll just have no further action. Giving a time penalty in
such circumstances would be very controversial and probably unfair
(the matter should've been settled during the race and I have no idea
why it wasn't).
Because the
Constructors’ has changed so much, here’s the full list:
Ferrari 114
Mercedes 110
Red Bull 55
McLaren 36
Renault 35
Force India 16
Toro Rosso 13
Haas 11
Sauber 10
Williams 4
Just consider how many
points Red Bull and Haas have thrown away. Red Bull now has a 50% DNF
rate. Haas had a great double position in Australia, and today
Grosjean would’ve ended up about 5th, all else being
equal. For all the crisis talk at McLaren, they’re currently best
of the rest, though it’s very close with Renault. Meanwhile,
Perez’s podium lifts Force India from being second to last all the
way to 6th. Whilst Sauber remain near the foot of the
table, Leclerc’s great result means they’re within fighting
distance of the teams ahead. Indeed, Haas are just 1 point away.
At the sharp end, it’s
also very close. Both Mercedes and Ferrari have a single DNF apiece.
Drivers’:
Hamilton 70
Vettel 66
Raikkonen 48
Bottas 40
Ricciardo 37
Alonso 28
Very tight at the top.
But for that late puncture, Bottas would be there, ahead of Vettel
and Hamilton, who would be separated by a single point. But there we
are. The Finns have 1 DNF each, Ricciardo has 2, and Alonso 0.
Anyway, the next race
is Spain, in a fortnight. Probably be a bit less work for the
marshals there.
Morris Dancer
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