China: post-race analysis 2018

Alas, the Hamilton bet not only failed, it never looked close, so red with or without the hedge. In half-annoyance and half-delight, I learnt late on that a one stop (ultrasoft-medium) was considered viable after all, and put a tiny sum on the Red Bulls to win (26 Verstappen, 31 Ricciardo). Smaller stakes but one came off, though I learnt of it too late for a blog tip. I ended up ahead overall for the race.

Off the line, Raikkonen started well, and Vettel squeezed him. This kept the German his place but enabled Bottas and Verstappen to get past Raikkonen.

Whilst there was much to-ing and fro-ing in the midfield, the race settled down, with small gaps emerging between the top 6. And, to be honest, it became a little worrisome, the race seemingly destined for a boring result. But boring it was not.

Red Bull pitted first, slotting on the mediums. Mercedes reacted pretty quickly, but this time it was Ferrari caught napping. They needlessly left Vettel out a few laps too long, and when the pit stops had shaken out, Bottas was effectively leading Vettel (both on medium tyres). Raikkonen was kept out to act as a roadblock for Bottas, backing him into Vettel. This put (after pitting) the Iceman back into 6^th. Whilst Vettel was within a second of Bottas, he was unable to effect a pass.

Further down the field there was much intra-team grumbling. Grosjean was a grumpy goose at being asked to let Magnussen through, Ocon was saying naughty words about his team mate, and the two Toro Rossos clashed when Gasly tried to pass Hartley with all the finesse of a drunk wearing boxing gloves. The hairpin was covered in debris, which brought out the safety car (and ultimately seems to have caused Hartley’s retirement, the race’s solitary instance of such).

Red Bull dove into the pits for soft tyres. And it proved to be genius.

Behind the safety car, the top four were struggling for heat in their mediums, and when the race resumed the Red Bulls had fresher, faster, grippier rubber. Verstappen and Ricciardo set about their mission to pass the field, but the young Dutchman (again) recklessly tried a move that just wasn’t on against Hamilton. There was the minor consequence of Verstappen taking a scenic route, which allowed Ricciardo to get ahead of him.

The Aussie then set about carving up every driver ahead of him like a half-starved shark feasting on a capsized boatload of tourists. Undoubtedly aided by his superior tyres, he nevertheless was excellent, being bold yet measured (Verstappen’s got the first of those but he really needs to learn when discretion is the better part of valour). From 6^th to 1^st, Ricciardo passed the lot and then pulled away for his first victory of the season.

Verstappen passed Hamilton and then closed in on Vettel (3^rd, at this point and still close behind Bottas). The Dutchman tried another move that wasn’t on, and both men spun, letting past Raikkonen (whose late stop now meant his fresher tyres had helped him past Hamilton) and the Briton. It was 100% Verstappen’s fault. Worse still, either damage or tyre problems meant Vettel’s pace vanished. He was passed by Hulkenberg and then Alonso, barely holding on for 8^th against Sainz (the pair recorded identical times).

Verstappen got a 10s time penalty, which seems unduly lenient given the impact upon the title race. He has taken responsibility for the incident, and Vettel was restrained his post-race comments, whilst attributing blame to the Dutchman.

Nevertheless, Verstappen soon got past Hamilton and closed up on Bottas and Raikkonen, but was unable to effect a pass. The penalty put him behind the Briton so the final order at the sharp end was Ricciardo, Bottas, Raikkonen, Hamilton and Verstappen.

Hulkenberg got a strong 6^th, just half a second off Verstappen come the chequered flag and 9s clear of Alonso. As mentioned above, Vettel and Sainz were very close indeed, with Magnussen nabbing the final point. Ocon and Perez were 11^th and 12^th and may have suffered from the safety car’s timing (as Red Bull and Alonso benefited), but that’s how things go.

All in all, a very eventful and exciting race, just a week after a similarly eventful and exciting race. Sadly both were red (Bahrain due to bad luck and this one because of poor judgement).

Drivers’:

Vettel 54

Hamilton 45

Bottas 40

Ricciardo 37

Raikkonen 30

Only a few races in, so it’s tight at the top. Worth noting Ricciardo and Raikkonen both have one DNF each (neither their fault). Vettel was very unlucky today, and Hamilton, whilst being rather lacklustre all weekend, narrowed the gap quite a bit. Unless Hamilton improves, he may be at risk from his team mate. The Englishman has been unusually downbeat as well. I wonder if off-track distractions are affecting him. Vettel is in a stronger position than the result today indicates. I think he’s in good shape for the title.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 85

Ferrari 84

Red Bull 55

McLaren 28

Renault 25

I still think Red Bull could get this title. But perhaps Ferrari will. Tricky. In the midfield contest, it remains tight between Renault and McLaren, with the bumblebees reducing the sunburnt smurfs’ advantage [good/bad nicknames?]. Both are quick and reliable, though I think the odds favour Renault, simply because their driver pairing is better and their qualifying likewise. McLaren are good at coming through the field but that won’t work as well when we’re at places like Monaco. Or Azerbaijan, which is in a fortnight.

Azerbaijan is an interesting circuit in terms of it being very tight and then having a ridiculous straight. Last year we had a comedy nonsense (which very nearly had a 201 shot come off, but for the Force Indias attacking each other). High attrition can happen. In that circumstance it favoured Ricciardo and Stroll, suggesting top line speed is the way for an outsider to do well. May be worth keeping an eye on Haas (who were also tasty around the tight Australian circuit).

Three races in, we’ve had two cracking races, and the title races are tightly contested. Azerbaijan starts on the 27^th.

Morris Dancer