Monaco: pre-race 2023

 

Just as well I didn’t back Perez or Sainz given how things played out. An entertaining qualifying leads to a mixed up grid, but I will have a book on hand for the race itself.

Q1 was notable for Perez crashing and bringing out a red flag. Rather odd, as he was simply attempting a corner with a superabundance of speed, and clobbered it. So he shall start last, as track revolution reduced his pretty good time (when set) to slowest of all. Rather less surprising were the departures of the Haas chaps, Logan Sargeant, and Zhou Guanyu.

And so to Q2 with Verstappen looking strong but the Ferraris and perhaps Alonso also in contention. Interestingly every eliminated car in this session was from a different team, with Piastri just losing out, ahead of De Vries, Albon, Stroll, and Bottas.

Verstappen’s first run in Q3 was surprisingly lacklustre and enabled Alonso to be on course for his first pole since the Cretaceous. He even improved on his second run, but Verstappen found a huge lump of time in the final sector to deny us a nice story and the Dutchman claimed yet another pole. But Alonso will be next to him on the front row.

Leclerc and surprisingly swift Ocon form row two, ahead of Sainz-Hamilton, Gasly-Russell, and Tsunoda-Norris.

At the time of writing, there is a small chance of rain and a high chance of a Stroll penalty of some variety for missing the weigh bridge. Extra note: Leclerc got a three place grid penalty for impeding another driver in qualifying.

Early betting thoughts:

Alonso win

Ocon podium

Sainz podium

Alonso is 3.5 to win. This may be value as the winner is almost always from the top 3 (with Ocon out at 34 that’s also intriguing). If I were to back Alonso it would probably be without the each way option due to the short odds, but Ocon starting 3rd and having odds of 34 is rather tempting.

My Ocon podium idea was conceived prior to the Leclerc penalty. He’s 2.5 for a podium, which is altogether less compelling than the 34 each way for him to win. With boost, that extends to 36.

Sainz for a podium is a measly 1.67. Given the barriers and chances of crashing and potential for Ferrari to have a brave and exciting approach to strategy that’s too short.

 

Perusing the markets, I saw the following:

Ocon, win each way, 36

Already mentioned above, Ocon starts 3rd on a track where passing is almost impossible. Plus, drivers tend to be as slow as they can to reduce tyre wear so they aren’t forced into a compromising pit stop. He’s probably odds against to gain a place but it’s not 10/1. I’ve backed this.

 

Worth noting I’m exhausted after a terrible night’s sleep, so we’ll discover whether I’ve been endowed with insomniac wisdom or just made a tired error. Either way, the odds are too long on Ocon.

 

Morris Dancer

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