China: pre-qualifying 2018

I checked the last few years’ results and noticed something odd. In 2017, the finishing top 10 were identical to the top 10 in the grid. In 2016, the only points scorer not to start in the top 10 was Hamilton (who started last). In 2015, with minor variance from grid to flag, the starting top 10 all scored points.

In 30 points finishes, only one was for a chap who didn’t start in the top 10. That’s quite the pattern.

In the two races to date, one had two cars outside the top 10 score [both McLarens], and the other had three [both McLarens and Sauber’s excellent result for Ericsson].

Renault are reportedly allowing the teams for which they supply engines to unlock more performance, following good reliability in the opening two races of the season. [Although one cynical chap who shall not be Mr. Sandpit reckons it’s because they’re upset at being beaten by Honda last time].

I had tiny bets at long odds on Williams/Sauber to top first practice, based on an early weather forecast (which improved, but there we are). As it happened, Hamilton was fastest, nearly half a second quicker than Raikkonen. Bottas, Ricciardo, Verstappen and Vettel followed, with Magnussen, Sainz, Grosjean and Hulkenberg rounding out the top 10.

Second practice had the same top three (Hamilton, Raikkonen, Bottas), but the top two were separated by seven-thousandths and the top three by three-hundredths. Vettel was less than a tenth off Bottas. Verstappen was a few tenths back, with Hulkenberg half a second off the Dutchman. He was followed by Magnussen, Sainz, Ricciardo and Alonso.

This session also saw another pit stop failure. Vandoorne, this time, ended up with three wheels on his wagon. After the double Haas failure in Oz and similar in Bahrain for Raikkonen, this is looking like a rather worrying pattern.

At this stage, Haas and Renault appear to be best of the rest, although in races to date McLaren has improved from qualifying. Weather forecast for qualifying is 50/50 wet or dry [but probably just very light rain if it happens], but the race is expected to be dry.

Tyre compounds are ultrasoft, soft and medium. The ultrasofts appear to be giving up the ghost very quickly, so using them might necessitate an extra pit stop.

Tyres in Q2 may, therefore, be soft for the top teams. I suspect Mercedes and Ferrari could get through, and maybe Red Bull as well. However, this presents a problem for Haas, Renault and McLaren. To have a hope of Q3 they need the best tyres. But this could hamstring them in the race. Could we see everyone leaping onto the yellow, rather than the purple, tyres?

If it rains, this becomes a moot point. I hope it’s dry, just because it’s an interesting variable.

Back to Q3 (if dry): this could favour Ferrari, which is a touch kinder on its tyres. But, of course, odds would need to be right.

I’ve backed Raikkonen at 11 each way (12 with boost, and fifth the odds for top 3) to be top 3 in third practice. He was 2^nd in the first two and, on pace, it’s very close between Mercedes and Ferrari.

I’m counting this as a qualifying tip, as it’s in an ‘official’ blog rather than just mentioned elsewhere, even though it’s practice. Qualifying and the race both start at 7am UK time, so the pre-race and post-race analysis will probably be up a bit earlier than usual.

Morris Dancer