Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2018

Using the immense power of the internet, I set up a couple of polls (one midfield, one frontrunner) to see what people thought of Azerbaijan’s possible outcomes. Haas, McLaren and Renault were all very close for the midfield, with Toro Rosso unloved. The frontrunner poll had Ferrari get half the vote, Mercedes get a smidgen less, and Red Bull in a distant third.

The FIA announced it was clamping down, with immediate effect, upon exhaust blowing for aerodynamic gains, something many are seeing as likely to adversely affect Ferrari the most. Little surprised as I hadn’t heard too much wibbling about this. It may also compromise Renault, who have apparently been doing much the same.

Azerbaijan is an interesting circuit (to consider, at least) in that it’s a very tight and twisty track, akin to Monaco, but has one long straight as well. This makes it quite hard to assess which teams will do well. That said, I think Haas will top the midfield, as they were quick in Australia and also have a Ferrari engine which seems rather good in a straight line this year. Earlier, (elsewhere), I tipped [with tiny stakes] Magnussen and Grosjean to win each way (third the odds, top 2), on Ladbrokes at 501 and 651 respectively. A similar bet, at 201, on Perez last year almost come off, and would have, if he and his team mate hadn’t been too busy playing dodgems to actually race. After FP1 this stretched to 1001 each, and I again backed and tipped them with very small odds (less than bus fare).

The weather forecast is for both qualifying and the race to be dry, with temperatures a few degrees cooler on Sunday (rain chance for qualifying is very low, a little higher for the race but still odds against). This may have implications for the race, as a safety car restart would see teams, perhaps especially Mercedes, struggle to get sufficient heat into their tyres.

Speaking of tyres, this weekend we have the soft, supersoft, and ultrasoft. On imagines the ultrasoft might make things more difficult for Mercedes in qualifying, if the last race is anything to go by. May be worth looking at Raikkonen for pole.

First practice had Bottas just edge Ricciardo, with Perez a surprising third (albeit nearly a second off the pace). Hamilton and Ocon were next, followed by Verstappen (who crashed), Alonso, Sirotkin, Gasly and Vettel.

There was some suspicion Ferrari and maybe Haas were sandbagging.

In second practice, Ricciardo was fastest, with small gaps to Raikkonen and Verstappen (which made me feel like a fool because I’d decided against backing Ricciardo on the basis Ferrari was likely sandbagging). Bottas was six-tenths off Verstappen, and a short way ahead of Hamilton. Alonso, Ocon, Sainz, Magnussen and Hulkenberg round out the top 10.

At the moment, things look pretty good for Red Bull. They could be the team to beat, but I still wonder if Ferrari have something in reserve. Feeling less confident about Haas’ prospects, alas. On the other hand, it’s tiny change at 1000/1, so my hopes were not high (though I do think the ‘true’ odds are significantly shorter, maybe around 81).

Vettel was fastest in third practice, a third of a second ahead of Hamilton. Raikkonen was next, half a tenth behind Hamilton and two-hundredths ahead of Verstappen. Bottas was half a tenth off Verstappen (tiny bit tight for the quartet behind Vettel). Perez was next but four-tenths off Bottas. Magnussen, Stroll, Ocon and Sirotkin (despite the crash, mentioned below) round out the top 10. Ricciardo screwed up his final lap and ended up twelfth.

Sirotkin crashed during third practice, thoroughly buggering his car. May be tricky for him to make qualifying. The crash meant, post-red flag, there was just a couple of minutes on the clock (the Red Bulls hadn’t set fast laps at this stage so their quickest times may or may not reflect real pace).

Right now, Ferrari look tasty for qualifying and race, Mercedes good for qualifying (little less for the race) and Red Bull pretty strong too. Force India are surprisingly competitive. Mr. Sandpit, elsewhere, reported that F1 was a demolition derby with the safety car leading a quarter of the race.

I was tempted to back Raikkonen each way for fastest qualifier, but he’s just 5.5 (third the odds, top 2) and with it being so tight, that does not represent value, for me.

I also think Red Bull might stand a good chance in the race but their odds are relatively short and I think they’ll get longer after qualifying.

Perez/Ocon have been looking faster, unexpectedly. Perhaps the (with Ladbrokes boost) odds of Perez at 326, each way, and Ocon at 401, each way, to win is worth a tiny amount (NB not counting this as a ‘proper’ tip because I’m putting on such tiny sums).

Qualifying looks intriguing, and the race more so.

Morris Dancer