Azerbaijan: pre-race 2018
Qualifying was
certainly interesting. Incidentally, apologies for a minor error in
the previous blog, Mr. Sandpit referred to F2, not F1. My finger
slipped, which may explain why I don’t work on a nuclear submarine.
In the first session,
Grosjean’s gearbox decided not to play (incidentally, Hulkenberg
has a five place grid penalty for changing his) and he didn’t get
to set a time. The two Toro Rossos almost had a massive crash after
Hartley was mindlessly trundling around the quickest part of the
track, and only Gasly’s swift reactions prevented a huge collision.
Both Toro Rossos failed to advance, Hartley taking full
responsibility. Ericsson and Vandoorne also left at this stage.
In the second session
the top three teams sent everyone out on the supersoft tyre, which
should be better for the race. However, Ferrari only had one set.
Raikkonen ended up ruining his pair and so had to set his fast lap on
the ultrasofts, which it’s believed will be detrimental in the race
(although much the same was said in China and the Red Bulls, starting
on the same tyre, did perfectly well). Further down the order,
Magnussen was the slowest, beaten by Leclerc by a full seven-tenths.
Either it was an astounding lap by the Monegasque or Magnussen cocked
up. Ahead of them was Alonso (he’s regularly been qualifying around
13th, then rising to score in races), with Sirotkin and
Stroll ahead. Not too bad for Williams given their recent
performances.
Q3 had the top six plus
the Force India and Renault pairings. On the first run, Vettel was
fastest and Raikkonen cocked up. On the second run, Hamilton improved
to leapfrog his team mate, but couldn’t match the German. Vettel
made an error but his first lap was enough for pole. Raikkonen was on
for pole, with two purple sectors, then made another mistake and
ended up a lacklustre 6th. Ricciardo and Verstappen line
up 4th and 5th, Ricciardo within a tenth of
Bottas and his team mate a similar margin behind.
The two Force Indias
(disregarding Raikkonen’s unnecessarily slow lap) were half a
second off the frontrunners but separated by just two-hundredths. I
hope they don’t repeat the mistake of last year. They were also
half a second ahead of the Renaults (Hulkenberg qualified 9th,
Sainz 10th, but the German takes a five place penalty for
a gearbox change). If that’s remotely indicative of actual pace,
then the Force Indias stand to inherit the win should the top dogs
spectacularly fail.
The bets that sprung to
mind for me were:
Ricciardo, win
Many drivers, not to be
classified
Safety Car (odds
probably comically low, but we’ll see)
Ricciardo is 7 to win
with Ladbrokes. Hmm. But longer with Betfair. The latter is pretty
tempting. He’s been racing extremely well and the prime strategic
focus of Red Bull’s rivals will be one another rather than
him/Verstappen. [He’s 8 on Ladbrokes for ‘win only’].
Not to be classified
has a variety of interesting options. Hamilton and Vettel are 7 each,
Raikkonen 6 (but even more tempting given where he starts), Ricciardo
is 4.33 and Verstappen 3.75. It’s tempting to slice up one regular
stake into five slices. Another option is to pick a couple and back
those. Hmm. Worthy of consideration.
The safety car is
available at 1.16 (1.25 on Betfair). That’s a bit of a weak-kneed,
bed-wetting sort of bet (I don’t like short odds) although it will
probably come off.
Some possibilities
above, but, as always, I had a general wander through the markets
(though, like Socrates, not necessarily with anything in mind).
The top scoring team
market is back, which is ironic because I like it a lot, but not for
this sort of race which could well have a high number of DNFs.
Bottas is 10 to lead
lap 1. The enormo-straight could be quite helpful for those behind
Vettel, as he doesn’t have a rear gunner to protect him from the
Mercedes pair.
Mr. Sandpit had an
interesting suggestion of Raikkonen to win with a contra-strategy at
23. That’s worth considering (if I back it, I’ll hedge at
something like 5 or so, I think).
Nothing stands out as
fantastic, but there are quite a few possibilities worth weighing up.
I quite like both
Ricciardo and Raikkonen to win (9.6 and 23 respectively at the time
of writing). And the many DNFs bet. (There is also 1.72 for there to
be under 16 classified finishers). There’s likely to be a safety
car, and that will only harm Vettel’s hopes, as he starts in the
lead. Raikkonen may be compromised by strategy. Hmm. Knotty.
I think Red Bull may be
the team to beat. But also tempted by Verstappen to DNF at 3.75. He’s
made a mistake at every race so far, and there isn’t a huge margin
of error around the circuit in Azerbaijan.
Two tips for this
weekend (or one and two halves, to be precise):
I’ve backed Ricciardo
to win at 9.6 (Betfair), hedged at 3. He’s driving well, the car’s
looking good, and the Mercedes/Ferrari teams will be more concerned
with one another than Red Bull.
I’ve also backed
Verstappen at 3.75 and Raikkonen at 6 not to be classified, splitting
one stake between them. Both have looked a bit scruffy during the
weekend. I accidentally split the stake evenly, normally I try and
make it so each outcome is equally profitable, but never mind.
Anyway, the race is
likely to be a procession broken up by sudden bursts of crashing
excitement. Let’s hope it’s thrilling and green.
Morris Dancer
good news - eventually - after last season NBCSN no bid on renewing the F1 contract for the US. The commentary team were let go except for Australian Leigh Diffey, who is NBCSN's go to guy for everything from downhill to Olympics to MLS soccer.
ReplyDeleteSo ESPN got it for a song. The network announced that they would be taking the world feed with no local content. As Shakespeare would have said, "Holy shit. What does this mean?"
The first race looked great - it turns out that the 'world feed' is the Sky Sports coverage, with all the practices and qualifying shown live. So we get 'Crofty', Martin Brundle, Ted Kravitz, Paul di Resta etc. So I was a happy camper – until.
Sky Sports doesn’t have commercial breaks during the race. ESPN did, so we would go in mid sentence from race coverage to a commercial encouraging you to buy gold, a pillow, catheters etc. After a couple of minutes we return in mid-sentence to more race coverage. Of course there was no reference to what happened during the break.
To say the US F1 community was up in arms is a serious understatement. ESPN was clearly unprepared for the furious reaction and announced quickly that henceforth the race would be shown commercial free.
So as of the second race I’m a happy camper. Except for the fact that due to the NFL Draft today qualifying was not shown. But I was watching the Draft anyway, so it wasn’t too bad.
In other good news Formula E is still on MSNBC, and Steve Matchett – one of the former MSNBC F1 commentary team – fronts that.
Tim B
Hey, Mr. B. That is good news. I remember when one ITV F1 race missed the end because it happened during an ad break. That didn't go down well...
DeleteFE any good? I watched a race or two some time ago. Probably has potential, but lack of noise is weird, I dislike street circuits, and the car-swap is silly. Some reasonable on-track action, though.
Next year they might not need the car swap -they get new battery technology.
ReplyDeleteThey frequently show remaining battery power for each car and as driving faster uses more power, it's interesting to see how the drivers use it.
I've seen 3 races now and once you get over the metallic whine for engine noise it's actually exciting. It's done in about 45 minutes.
Tim B
Hey, Tim B.
DeleteIf I remember (ahem), I might give the next race a look then, provided it's not on at a silly time.
Morris Dancer