Singapore: post-race analysis 2019

Well, the bet was red. Mild misjudgement, basically. The race itself could not be called a classic, although there were a few moments of interest to note.

Off the line it was formation flying from the top 6 (Leclerc, Hamilton, Vettel, Verstappen, Bottas, Albon). Further back Hulkenberg tried a pass on Sainz that wasn’t on (there was a gap but it was always going to close), damaging the German’s prospects and causing quite a lot of harm to Sainz’s (the Spaniard ended up dead last, even 30s or so behind the Williams).

Then we had about 18 laps of Leclerc trundling around like a grandma with a broken zimmer frame. The top 6, far from breaking away, were a couple of seconds ahead of whoever was 7^th (might’ve been Norris).

Ricciardo, who started at the back of the grid due to a tiny technical infringement in qualifying, provided some relief from the procession, as he set about passing backmarkers and midfield chaps with gay abandon.

Nobody could pit because Leclerc’s pace meant they’d come out in traffic on a circuit where passing is very hard. Eventually he decided to be a bit faster. Hamilton went with him, Vettel couldn’t quite match their pace.

Vettel and Verstappen boxed. Vettel emerged just ahead of a ‘backmarker’ (I think it was Hulkenberg) and Verstappen was just behind. Vettel had a nice little gap and engaged in the novel strategy of driving quickly. When Leclerc and Bottas pitted shortly thereafter, the Finn remained behind the Dutchman and the Monegasque was aghast to discover he was behind the German (effectively, he’d been undercut).

Mercedes kept Hamilton out. The ‘real terms’ leaders were coming up to three or four chaps who were ahead but had yet to pit, and the gamble was that they would hold up Vettel et al and enable Hamilton to either retain his position or even leapfrog into the lead.

It failed. It failed so much the team had to order Bottas to drive more slowly so that the Briton would emerge ahead of him. On pace, Bottas would’ve been ahead of Hamilton after the first (and only, for most drivers) pit stop.

Grosjean buggered up an attempted pass on Russell, damaging the Williams, putting it out of the race for the team’s first DNF of the year. This necessitated the safety car, but nobody at the front had a gap to make the cheap stop worth it.

There were two more safety cars, one for Perez’s car suffering a reliability failure and stopping by the trackside, and another for Raikkonen’s car when Kvyat drove into him (I forget the order. You should forgive me, it was a valiant effort to remain awake). Both times Vettel handled the restart well and was never really under threat.

Vettel got his first race win in over a year (although he really should’ve had Canada this year), clocking up three on the bounce for Ferrari for the first time in over a decade. It was also the first 1-2 finish in Singapore for any team. Verstappen completed the podium, followed by Hamilton, Bottas, and Albon. The Thai driver never really posed a threat to Bottas but at his first appearance at perhaps the most challenging race of the year he drove well throughout.

Norris got 7^th for McLaren, helping to rack up some good points after some iffy moments in recent races for the team. Ricciardo got himself a puncture with a late overtake attempt which put him out of the points, but his team mate Hulkenberg got 9^th for Renault, reducing the net loss to their McLaren rivals.

Gasly was 8^th and Giovinazzi (who, pre-pit stop, led the race) 10^th.

Sainz ended up 12^th, which given how his race started is a good result.

There’s no fastest lap point because Magnussen got it, and finished last of cars still running. He had been up in the points but the Haas was useless at retaining heat in its tyres and he slid down the order.

Right now, Ferrari looks like the fastest car, but have they left it too late? Probably. On top of that, Vettel and Leclerc both drove flawless races but today the younger driver was clearly irked to finish behind (it’s worth noting Vettel gave him victory by acting as a roadblock to Hamilton a race or two ago, so one might argue it’s swings and roundabouts. It’s also valid to suggest giving preferential strategy to the second car is contrary to common sense and natural justice).

Drivers:

Hamilton 296

Bottas 231

Leclerc 200

Verstappen 200

Vettel 194

We can discount Bottas. Today he should’ve finished ahead of Hamilton but the team clearly prioritised his team mate. That leaves three drivers clustered around 100 points behind Hamilton with just six races left. That means any one of them needs to average a 16 point advantage per race. It’s highly unlikely to happen. I do think Bottas may struggle to retain 2^nd and could even end up last of those five, not it matters especially. This is still very much Hamilton’s to lose.

Constructors:

Mercedes 527

Ferrari 394

Red Bull 299

McLaren 89

Renault 67

Toro Rosso 55

Racing Point 46

Alfa Romeo 35

Haas 26

Williams 1

McLaren extend, slightly, their lead as best of the rest. The margins are pretty tight but I don’t expect a huge difference from this order to the final result.

A mostly boring race with one or two interesting points, and a single red tip.

The next race is Russia, next weekend. Hopefully the bet(s) will be green, although I’m not putting money on an exciting race. (Street circuits remain rubbish).

Morris Dancer