Singapore: pre-race 2019

Well, I’ve got to say I didn’t see that one coming. Very, very tight qualifying, with Ferrari’s muscle outdoing the poise of Red Bull and Mercedes. Using power to outpace competitors at a street circuit is not a regular occurrence.

The first session was largely as expected with both Williams rooted to the bottom of the timesheet, and Stroll failing to progress. Kvyat also didn’t escape, a huge nine-tenths off his team mate (who did), and Grosjean likewise eliminated at this stage.

In the second session Ferrari, especially Leclerc, suddenly turned on the power, and it really showed. Leclerc was fastest, initially wiping the floor with everyone including his team mate but Vettel fought back to cut the deficit to under a tenth. On top of that, Verstappen inserted himself between Hamilton and Bottas, teeing up Q3 nicely. At the slower end, both Alfas went out (Giovinazzi ahead of Raikkonen, who slapped the wall with his car), as did Magnussen, Gasly and Perez.

In Q3 the first run had Vettel fastest ahead of Leclerc, with Verstappen next and the Mercedes behind them. Huge shock, frankly. The Mercedes were about a second off the pace. Vast gulf in speed, and very surprising as Ferrari’s strength is power, whereas a street circuit is all about downforce and slow speed corners.

Come the second runs, Vettel failed to improve, and it cost him big time. Leclerc snatched his third pole on the bounce, ahead of Hamilton. Vettel is being outshone by his team mate, despite driving very well himself. Verstappen got 4^th, three-tenths off Vettel but four-tenths ahead of Bottas, whose second run was a shocker.

Albon, still in his début season, of course, was two-tenths off the Finn and over half a second off his team mate.

Sainz was best of the rest, two-tenths up on Ricciardo. Hulkenberg and Norris comprise the fifth row.

Why were Ferrari so fast? Upgrades that are working like a charm, and an engine that roars like an enraged balrog.

So, very tight at the front. Verstappen needs a better start than he’s had recently because if he fluffs this one he’ll end up having to make up a dozen places on one of the hardest circuits when it comes to passing. They all start (top 10) on the soft tyres, so a strategic advantage, depending on safety car timing, might be enjoyed by those around rows six to eight, as they have choice of tyre and may opt for the medium to try and exploit a cheap pit stop under the safety car.

Ricciardo’s MGU-K was found to have provided excessive power during Q1 and he’s been disqualified. This means he’ll start either at the back of the grid or in the pit lane. In addition, Perez has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change.

Rain is possible. It may not be heavy if it comes. But the drainage at the circuit was shown to be severely lacking two years ago.

My initial betting thoughts were:

DNFs galore

Yep, that was it. With rain possible and crashes entirely likely, the only thing that I thought might have value would be looking at various Not To Be Classified bets.

On the Not To Be Classified front (and it’s worth remembering that cars are classified if they fail in the final few laps), Grosjean is 2.37. Hulkenberg’s 3.25. Perez is 3.75. Vettel is 6.5. These are the ones that probably tempt me the most. But it is a bit of a shot in the dark.

However, in accordance with my customs and traditions I then browsed the full markets to see if anything interesting popped up.

Vettel, winner each way (third the odds top 2), 10

Under 15.5 classified finishers, 2.37

Special – Mercedes double top 5 finisher, Verstappen top 5 finish, Racing Point/Williams all classified, 4

The Ferrari is mighty in a straight line and Hamilton may be vulnerable on the first lap. My concern is that Vettel, after losing to Leclerc again in qualifying, might not quite have his head in the right place. It’s worth noting he’s also 9.5 to win Group 1, which is the two Ferraris, Hamilton, and Verstappen. But that’s not each way, of course.

If it’s wet, the under 15.5 finishers bet is nearly certain, and it has a reasonably good chance even if it’s dry. Odds aren’t fantastic, though.

The special has a lot of contingencies, but might be worth considering. If it’s dry, there’s a reasonable chance all those cars will finish.

Hmm. I don’t really know how to call this (as you may’ve gathered). I think Leclerc should be favourite for the win on pace but potential rain, the start, and the safety car affecting things could all change the order quite a bit.

Not especially heroic, but I’ve decided to back under 15.5 finishers at 2.37.

Race start is 1.10pm UK time.

Morris Dancer