Italy: pre-qualifying 2019


Ahead of FP1 I saw it was wet and backed the slower half of the field to be top 3 (tiny stakes). Ironically and annoyingly, McLaren had spots 2 and 3, but I didn’t back them.

In first practice Leclerc pleased the home fans by finishing fastest, with Sainz and Norris following. Hamilton, Albon, and Kvyat were next, with Verstappen, Vettel, Bottas, and Gasly rounding out the top 10. It was slippery with plenty of sliding and spinning, and a number of red flags.

Second practice was drier, but still saw Leclerc as top dog, half a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Vettel was next, followed by Bottas. Verstappen was three-thousandths off the Finn, but a quarter of a second ahead of team mate Albon. Gasly was one place and half a second behind his Red Bull replacement, followed by Grosjean, Ricciardo, and Kvyat.

Third practice had Vettel fastest, three-hundredths ahead of Verstappen and a tenth ahead of Bottas. Leclerc was officially 4th but had racked up the best time only for it to be deleted due to exceeding track limits. Ricciardo was next, apparently ahead of Hamilton, followed by Hulkenberg, Albon, Giovinazzi, and Kvyat.

Pre-practice I’d expected Ferrari to dominate, but things have been a lot closer. I do wonder if Mercedes/Hamilton should be favourite here.

With the margins seemingly closer, I think it’s worth backing Hamilton, each way (third the odds top 2) to be the fastest qualifier at 5.

Check the weather forecast ahead of betting on the race, as it’s entirely possible that there’ll be rain. If there is, that may relatively help the likes of Verstappen.

Morris Dancer

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