Italy: post-race analysis 2019
The race was engaging,
and another great win for Leclerc. The bet came off, perhaps
moderately fortuitous, but if luck’s going to play a role better it
be good than ill. Only each way so modestly green, but I’m still
pleased.
Off the line Leclerc
was a little tardy and Hamilton came almost alongside but in a spot
of foreshadowing the Monegasque fellow defended hard and kept his
place. Further back Verstappen, Perez and perhaps Raikkonen too got
tangled up in the first corner.
Bottas almost passed
Hamilton but was unable to make it stick. Meanwhile Hulkenberg passed
Vettel, leaving Leclerc without any rear gunner at all.
Ferrari’s younger
driver was keeping ahead of both Mercedes but they were on a chain,
barely slipping a second back from Leclerc (a similar gap between
Hamilton and Bottas). Vettel eventually got past Hulkenberg but had
lost time and was a little way back. And then he rather made a hash
of things. The four time champion spun, without any contact at all,
until he returned to the track and tagged Stroll. The Canadian,
understandably displeased, got on the radio about Vettel’s unsafe
rejoining of the track, only to do almost the exact same thing to
Gasly. The Frenchman was pushed wide into gravel, although there was
no direct car-to-car contact. Vettel got a 10s stop and go penalty
(and had to pit one more time for a new nose anyway) and Stroll got a
drive through.
It seemed Leclerc was
struggling just a little with his tyres. Mercedes, having the luxury
of two cars right behind him, sent Hamilton in for an undercut pit
stop. Leclerc pitted the next lap and retained the (real terms) lead.
Bottas stayed out for a
while longer, but it wasn’t working and seven or so laps later he
came in. Both Mercedes were on medium tyres, Leclerc (whose Ferrari
had gnawed on the medium rubber previously) had hard tyres instead.
A virtual safety car
came out when McLaren made a schoolboy error and sent out Sainz
without all his wheels properly attached. Unlucky for the Spaniard
who has another DNF that wasn’t his fault.
After the VSC came in
Hamilton put Leclerc under tremendous pressure, but the Ferrari’s
power on the straight was unassailable. On one occasion only was the
Monegasque at direct risk of being overtaken, and that was following
a lock-up and cut first corner that allowed Hamilton to get within
about two-tenths. That lap, Leclerc did weave a bit and did squeeze
Hamilton.
Unfair? Dangerous?
Robust defending?
I’m not a weaving
fan, but Leclerc was still ahead when he squeezed Hamilton.
That was the only real
chance. After that, the medium tyre advantage started ebbing. And
Bottas was hoving into view. The Finn had been a bit screwed by the
strategy call earlier, but not he was eating into the 7s or so gap to
the top pair at about half a second a lap. Mercedes were spared a
team orders decision when Hamilton thoughtfully ploughed straight on
at the first corner, went through the slalom and this allowed Bottas
to effectively pass him.
With Leclerc’s hard
tyres a bit older and going off, the Finn got close, but couldn’t
try a real attempt. He was there and thereabouts but the Ferrari
driver withstood all pressure, as he had from Hamilton, to take a
very impressive win. It reminded me a bit of when Verstappen held off
a clearly faster Raikkonen (then driving for Ferrari) in the
Dutchman’s first race for Red Bull at Spain, 2016.
Late on, Hamilton
swapped his knackered medium tyres for fresh rubber and duly banged
in the fastest lap.
Also worth mentioning a
very strong Renault performance. I’d expected them to slide back a
little at least in the race but they got 4th and 5th
and (excepting Vettel’s self-inflicted punishment) it was entirely
on merit. A tasty 22 point haul, which is an awful lot for the
midfield when the top 6 places are usually locked out by the big
teams. Not enough to pass McLaren but enough to put the team back in
contention for best of the rest.
Albon was 6th.
A bit lacklustre, perhaps? Only his second race with the team but he
did try going around someone where he ought not, and ended up having
a small excursion through a scenic gravel trap. Verstappen was 8th,
which also isn’t fantastic, although he started from near the back
of the grid.
Perez got 7th
for Racing Point, which is useful. And he also started near the back
of the grid, which makes it all the more impressive. Giovinazzi got
9th, keeping Alfa Romeo’s points tally ticking over on a
rare Raikkonen off day. Norris picked up the final point for McLaren.
Sainz would’ve been tussling with Hulkenberg, probably, had his car
retained the traditional number of wheels.
Bit rubbish for Toro
Rosso. Gasly was 11th and Kvyat was doing very well until
his car broke. Haas had a pointless Grosjean and a broken Magnussen.
Drivers:
Hamilton 284
Bottas 221
Verstappen 185
Leclerc 182
Vettel 169
Bottas nibbled away 2
points of Hamilton’s lead. If the season had another 32 races, he’d
be on course to win by 1 point. The season does not have another 32
races. The battle for 3rd is rather more competitive.
Probably advantage Leclerc, although Verstappen will do well at
circuits like Russia and Singapore.
Constructors:
Mercedes 505
Ferrari 351
Red Bull 266
McLaren 83
Renault 65
Toro Rosso 51
Racing Point 46
Alfa Romeo 34
Haas 26
Williams 1
Renault’s very strong
weekend has allowed them to leapfrog Toro Rosso and significantly
reduce the gap to McLaren (although the latter team still has a
reasonable lead). The midfield remains rather tight. Mercedes will
win the title again, and Ferrari will probably retain the advantage
over Red Bull.
In some mathematically
pleasing round numbers, backing both my tips would net you a precise
50% return. Both came off due to the each way aspect. Not huge wins,
but nice to be green.
The next race is
Singapore, in a fortnight.
Morris Dancer
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