Russia: pre-race 2019
Qualifying went more or
less as expected, with Leclerc getting pole, again, and Hamilton
pipping Vettel, again.
Because Kvyat changed
just about everything he starts from the back and didn’t waste
petrol trundling around. In Q1, Albon overcooked his entry speed to a
corner, the car snapped around and he slammed arse-first into the
barriers, ending his session. Ahead of these two were the Williams,
and Raikkonen.
Q2 was tight, with
Gasly, Perez, Giovinazzi, Magnussen, and Stroll eliminated. That
means both Renaults and McLarens progressed, as did Grosjean.
Everybody expected
Leclerc to easily get pole. And he did. By four-tenths. Vettel cocked
up his second run and the failure to improve allowed Hamilton to
snatch 2nd on the grid by two-hundredths. Verstappen
qualified 4th but won’t start there (he and Gasly have 5
place grid penalties for fiddling with engine stuff. Albon would’ve
had likewise had he not binned his car).
Bottas was next
fastest, a second off Leclerc and over half a second off his team
mate. Not great for a circuit he’s been pretty good at in the past.
Sainz was best of the rest, narrowly ahead of Hulkenberg. Norris and
Grosjean qualified next, with Ricciardo slowest of the top 10.
It’s worth noting the
Mercedes qualified on the medium tyre which will allow them to go
deeper into the race. Which may not necessarily benefit them. If
there’s a safety car that could swing things either way. Everyone
else, so far as I can tell, is on the soft (obviously the lower half
of the grid can pick their wheels).
In other penalty news,
Kubica has to start from the back because of changing bits and pieces
(yes, yes, that’s a notional penalty, but still).
At the time of writing,
the race is expected to be dry.
My early betting
thoughts are:
Verstappen podium
Vettel lead lap 1
Verstappen is 4.5 for a
podium. He starts down in 9th because of the above
mentioned penalty, and overtaking is difficult. On top of that, he
has sometimes started very badly. In his favour is being a very good
driver with a car that should be significantly faster than those
around him (albeit more in the corners than the straights) and being
on the probably optimal starting tyre.
The Vettel bet is based
on his tyre being superior to the Mercedes (soft versus medium), and
that, apparently, the lead driver can face difficulty retaining his
position due to the first lap slipstream. This may explain the
perverse situation of the odds being 4 for Vettel, yet 6.5 for
Hamilton who starts ahead of him. If those had been the other way
around, it’d be rather more usual (and tempting). (NB he’s a more
pleasing 5.7 on Betfair).
Anyhow, I browsed the
morning markets to see what seemed interesting, and saw the
following:
Vettel, winner each way
(third the odds top 2) 4.5
Bottas, winner each way
(third the odds top 2), 17
Alternative match bet,
Vettel to beat Bottas, 1.5
The Ferrari looks the
fastest. Vettel should’ve improved in his second run, and didn’t,
and had the pace to lock out the front row. But he does start on the
better tyre and most people think that starting on the soft will be
the optimal strategy. Passing’s hard but Ferrari power will be
advantageous both making overtaking moves and fending them off. The
downside is that 4.5 each way at a third the odds barely cuts into
the green if he’s 2nd, which seems likely as Leclerc is
looking as impressive as ever.
The Bottas bet is made
with one of two scenarios in mind (NB he starts 4th
despite qualifying fifth fastest because of Verstappen’s penalty).
If the Ferraris get tasty on lap one and either have damage-induced
pit stops or DNF altogether, that’s one. The other is if the
optimal strategy is actually medium tyres first. How could this be?
The safety car will reduce the cost in time of a pit stop very
significantly. If it comes out after the soft tyre pit window but
during the medium tyre pit window that will give Mercedes a
significant advantage.
I think Vettel’s
highly likely to beat Bottas. 1.5 isn’t heroic, but unless one of
the two twists I mention above happen I fully expect the German to be
on the podium, alongside his team mate and a British chap.
One
of those times I’d likely sit it out if I didn’t write these
blogs. But I do...
I’ve
decided to back Vettel to lead lap 1, got 5.9 on Betfair, and I’d
suggest anything down to 5.5 is ok.
Race start is 12.10pm
UK time, I think.
Morris Dancer
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