Russia: post-race analysis 2019

I had a hard time calling bets, but my tip luckily came off. The long run to the first corner coupled with Ferrari power and a great start from Vettel to propel the German into leading the first lap.

Off the line Vettel took off like a shot, benefiting from Leclerc’s slipstream to grab the lead. Further back there was Ricciardo contact with Grosjean, leading to the Aussie making his painfully slow way back to the pits and a safety car before the first lap ended. The Frenchman was out of the race (his DNF odds were 3, for those wondering).

After the safety car departed Vettel pulled away and was plainly faster than Leclerc, who made a small gap to Hamilton. The Monegasque complained and was told over the radio that Vettel would pull over. At this stage the gap to Hamilton was only a couple of seconds. Vettel, understandably, suggested he would not be handing over the place as he was both faster off the line and on race pace. He recommended his team mate closed the gap.

Leclerc could not. Vettel was stamping his authority, and his speed, on the race.

Later on, Ferrari pitted Leclerc first. Then they kept Vettel out until his tyres went off, enabling Hamilton to make a net gain of several seconds and Leclerc to leapfrog his team mate when the German finally got fresh tyres. A cowardly way for Ferrari to mishandle the increasingly fraught driver relationship.

On top of that, very soon after pitting Vettel was told to immediately stop because his MGU-K had failed (stopping quickly meant damaging the engine less). After the perfect start, driving faster than the field until his tyres gave up, and being blatantly shafted by his team on strategy (unlike in Singapore where the team had to pit Vettel first to cover Verstappen), he got a DNF for his trouble. He was voted driver of the day, for what that’s worth.

Vettel’s stoppage brought out the VSC, in turn enabling Mercedes to benefit from cheap pit stops which put Hamilton ahead of Leclerc and Bottas behind. When Russell’s brakes gave up (Kubica was also retired, giving the previously perfect [in reliability terms] Williams 3 DNFs from the last pair of races) the full safety car was deployed.

Many others boxed for the cheapest of all stops. Including, perhaps stupidly, Ferrari. They threw away 2^nd to Bottas and slapped on some soft tyres for Leclerc. He emerged in 3^rd. Ferrari had gone from 1-2 for the first half of the race to a DNF and last stop on the podium.

Would Leclerc use that mighty Ferrari power to pass Bottas?

No. It might be surprising but the Mercedes was quick enough to keep the Ferrari behind. Hamilton cruised out to a 5s lead, Bottas kept his head, and Leclerc could make no headway.

Hamilton got the win and fastest lap for the full English breakfast of 26 points. Bottas got 18 and 2^nd for a perfect team result.

After Leclerc came Verstappen and Albon, the Thai having passed Sainz very late on.

Not bad for McLaren, though, as Sainz was 6^th and Norris 8^th for valuable points to extend their lead over rivals Renault. Perez wasn’t on screen too much but got a tasty 7^th for Racing Point.

Magnussen’s 9^th is some relief for Haas and Hulkenberg nabbed the final point (the German was the filling in a car sandwich on the first lap which saw him drop back a bit). Once more, though, a disappointing change from grid to flag for Renault.

Drivers:

Hamilton 322

Bottas 249

Leclerc 215

Verstappen 212

Vettel 194

Felt Vettel was extraordinarily unlucky today, having driven a perfect race, then being hobbled by a craven team strategy and then eliminated through no fault of his own. The title is all but Hamilton as he racked up yet another win. Still possible he’ll surpass Schumacher’s all time record next year (there are insufficient races for it to happen in 2019). Bottas could be passed but you don’t get much for 2^nd anyway. Red Bull will be pleased that Albon rose from the pit lane to 5^th.

Constructors:

Mercedes 571

Ferrari 409

Red Bull 321

McLaren 101

Renault 68

Toro Rosso 55

Racing Point 52

Alfa Romeo 35

Haas 28

Williams 1

Racing Point closed up a bit on Toro Rosso, and they must aim to finish ahead of them by the season’s end. Otherwise, McLaren cemented their grip on best-of-the-rest ahead of Renault.

Must admit the race was altogether more dramatic and interesting than I’d anticipated. And green too, which is always nice.

The story of it is Ferrari cocking up. Bad man-management, stupid strategy driven by cowardice, and poor reliability on top of that. Leclerc’s an impressively fast driver, but he needs to stop whining so much on the radio, and Ferrari need to stop indulging that. Even if team orders are the way to go, trying it so early in the race, with Hamilton just a few seconds behind, would be risky and foolish.

The next race is Japan, in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer