Turkey: pre-race 2020

Well, that grid is quite unexpected. Having ruined Perez’s result with a strategic failure, this time Racing Point benefited by Red Bull cocking up. Pole for Stroll!

In Q1 it was very wet indeed. So wet, in fact, that it was red flagged for quite a while. Both Grosjean and Latifi ended up beaching their cars. Double waved yellows for Latifi annoyed Magnussen who felt his competitors didn’t slow down.  Unsurprisingly, we lost both Williams, both Haas, and Kvyat, whom I believe spun on what would’ve been his fastest lap.

We were still pretty much in wet tyre territory for the second part of qualifying, which featured a potential blocking by Sainz on Perez (this is being referred to the stewards). I was a bit surprised Gasly was slowest of them all, with both McLarens and both Ferraris out.

Q3 went a bit differently. Verstappen had been literally seconds ahead of everyone else. He and the others went out on inters… except for Racing Point. And Perez was just two-tenths off Verstappen. The Dutchman was brought in for inters, aborting a purple lap. And it proved a great mistake. Whilst Perez performed well, Stroll did even better, bagging his first pole, with his team mate an also impressive 3^rd. Verstappen struggled on the inters, came in for wets, and then could only achieve 2^nd when he clearly had the pace for pole. A significant miscalculation for Red Bull, but given the evolving track it could’ve gone a lot worse, especially with Albon having a good day and starting 4^th.

Ricciardo was next, and whilst 6^th for Hamilton isn’t great it could’ve been a lot worse (he was briefly in trouble in the first session). Ocon was 7^th and Bottas could only manage 9^th. A very good qualifying for Alfa Romeo, however, with Raikkonen 8^th and Giovinazzi 10^th.

Weather tomorrow may be wet and there’s plenty of potential for grid penalties.

Checking at 7.04am of race day, it seems isolated and low level showers are possible but there’s unlikely to be a deluge. However, the track will still be slippery due to the recent resurfacing (and any rubber laid down will be washed off by the downpour of Saturday).

Russell, as mentioned previously, starts from the back of the grid due to taking new parts, Sainz has a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Perez, Norris was penalized 5 places for not respecting yellow flags. (The F1 website indicates Stroll got a 5 place grid penalty for the same reason but I believe this is an error, as the F1 official Twitter feed has a penalty-corrected starting grid with Stroll still on pole): https://twitter.com/F1/status/1327672647291789312/photo/1).

My early betting thoughts were:
Albon podium
Few classified finishers
Gasly points

Albon is 3.5 for a podium. Interestingly, Stroll, who starts on pole (probably) is 3.25. Perez is 3.5. Hmm. I can see arguments for backing any one of those. I’d like to back Albon as he has the better car, but he does have a habit of underwhelming.

Gasly is 1.83 for points. He starts 13^th and whilst impressive in the dry the potential for collisions and a slippery surface make this unappealing.

Under 15.5 classified finishers is 2.2. Basic bet but might be value given how much drivers have struggled with the circuit all weekend.

The upside of the race being earlier than expected is that there are more markets than usual. After perusing them, the following caught my eye:

Leclerc to top group 2, 2.4

This was less than I expected to see as possibly being value, but the only bet that tickled my fancy was Leclerc to lead group 2, at 2.4. That group is him, Raikkonen, Vettel, and Giovinazzi. In the dry, the Ferrari has looked far better than the Alfa Romeo, especially in Leclerc’s hands, and he’s had the whip hand over Vettel all season. The only drawback I can see (he starts last of the set but I think that’s more than outweighed by pace difference) is the treacherous surface of the circuit but that applies to every single bet.

On second glance, I’m also somewhat tempted by backing, each way, the two Racing Points to win. I don’t think they will. I think Verstappen’s all but nailed on, but with odds of 17-19 each way, a third the odds top 2 and Mercedes being on the back foot does make things more intriguing. Albon’s 19 as well, and should have the hardware to do it… though I must confess I always have my doubts him.

Two tips for the race, then (odds are with boost):
Leclerc, top group 2, 2.45
Albon, win each way (third the odds top 2), 21

Leclerc should beat his team mate handily, as usual, and although the Alfa Romeos start a little up the road the practice times indicate that, in the dry, the Ferrari will gobble them up nicely.

For all my doubts about Albon, evidently shared by Ladbrokes, he’s been very close to Verstappen this weekend. The third chap has been Leclerc, who starts 12^th. The Mercedes have been iffy in conditions wet and dry. The race should be dry, or mostly dry, and even in the wet Albon was pretty good. In the dry, his car should be enough to surpass the Racing Points.

Really hard to call this race. Verstappen’s clearly the favourite for the win, but beyond that things could develop in any number of ways. A safety car seems near certain (rubbish odds, though) and the timing could cause even more havoc.

Should be a fun one.

Important note: the race starts at 10.10am UK time. This is two hours earlier than I was expecting, and I’m not sure if the time was brought forward due to potential daylight problems if a safety car or red flag occurs (time was very tight for qualifying).

Morris Dancer