Imola: pre-race 2020

And so to qualifying. Would it be dramatically unpredictable? Would Mercedes dominate the front row?

 Q3 went more or less to script, with both Alfa Romeos, Latifi, and both Haas exiting at this stage. Russell got out with relative ease and multiple drivers, including Bottas, Albon, and Raikkonen, had lap times deleted for exceeding track limits.

Q2 had some more surprises. Initially the Mercedes, Ferraris, and Red Bulls all went out on medium tyres. But things starting going wrong for most of the drivers. Verstappen’s car lost power (turned out to be a wonky spark plug) and he had to box whilst the mechanics frantically attempted to mend the problem. Vettel was too slow, and Leclerc wasn’t exactly safe either (I believe both had to swap onto the soft tyres and that still wasn’t enough for the German). Albon, meanwhile, continued his bad habit of getting laps deleted for exceeding track limits. After it all shook out, Perez ended up 11th, which isn’t a bad spot given projected difficulty overtaking and the scope for strategic shenanigans, with Ocon 12th and Russell a well-deserved 13th. Vettel had to make do with 14th (I hope he can rediscover his pace next year) and Stroll down in 15th, due to his better time being deleted.

On initial runs in Q3 it seemed Hamilton was on pole only for Bottas to get it. Still a clear Mercedes front row lockout, though. Verstappen got 3rd, ahead of a very impressive Gasly in 4th (he and Kvyat, 8th, have looked good all Saturday). Ricciardo, Albon, and Leclerc were between the AlphaTauris, with the McLarens at the back end of the top 10, Norris leading Sainz.

My early betting thoughts are:
Perez top 6
Gasly top 6
Albon not to be classified
Lowish number of finishers

Perez is 4.5 to be top 6. I’m quite tempted by this as he’s historically excellent at tyre management and the probable difficulty overtaking will make this a valuable asset. Not incredible odds, but appealing. His actual pace is highly competitive, within a tenth of beating both McLarens, Kvyat, Leclerc, Verstappen, and just a little further off Ricciardo in Q2 (from which he was the fastest man eliminated).

Gasly is 1.25 to be top 6. He has a great chance of this, but the odds are too low for me.

Albon is 5 not to be classified. He’s been over circuit limits a lot, complaining over the radio, and has had plenty of contact with others during the course of the season. The circuit can be unforgiving for drivers who make mistakes. One worth considering.

My thoughts on classified finishers assuming early jostling and DRS increasing overtaking possibilities, which is not a certainty. The track’s tight and has gravel traps and walls to cause woe, so if drivers do go off there’s scope for it being a one-way trip. The odds on unclassified finishers are pretty short (2.62 under 15.5) especially given the surprisingly solid performance last weekend. No bet here for me.

As always, I browsed the market to see what popped up.

Stroll, points, 2.37

Stroll’s low starting grid slot (15th) was due to a lap time deletion. Overtaking is forecast to be tricky but he’s also got a good habit of making up places early on. Odds of 2.37 are perhaps on the tight side, but it’s one to think about.

The Perez top 6 and Albon not to be classified bets intrigue me. So I’ve decided to back both.

With boost, this comes to:

Perez, top 6, 4.6

Albon, not to be classified 5.25

I checked the start time on a TV guide earlier and it indicated 1pm but the official F1 Twitter feed has it as ten past noon, UK time. Let’s hope the race is exciting and profitable.

Morris Dancer

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