Turkey: pre-qualifying 2020

Excitingly, a Saudi Arabian night race is now set for November next year. One waits with bated breath for the moral prognostications from the sport to find out if political opinions are something for the US, or if they apply to Saudi Arabia too (and China, Russia, etc). Mind you, plenty of lawyers, journalists, and teachers have been imprisoned in Turkey as well.

That’ll be it for the politics this weekend, but I felt it’d be remiss not to mention the hypocritical bullshit of the sport.

The full 2021 calendar, currently is set to be:

Australia, Bahrain, China, TBC, Spain, Monaco, Azerbaijan, Canada, France, Austria, UK, Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Russia, Singapore, Japan, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi.

That’s 23 in total with Vietnam perhaps being nixed.

Turkey’s actually a pretty good circuit, and until the Circuit of the Americas was the best modern track, probably. Russell will be starting from the back due to grid penalties for taking new bits.

First practice had the unexpected result of Verstappen and Albon topping the time sheets, followed by Leclerc, Gasly, Vettel, and Kvyat. Norris and Giovinazzi followed, with Bottas the leading Mercedes in ninth. Ocon rounded out the top 10 (Hamilton was fifteenth).

Verstappen led second practice as well, four-tenths up on Leclerc. Bottas was next, over half a second off the ultimate pace, with Hamilton a few tenths further back. Albon, Kvyat, and Gasly followed, with Vettel, Stroll, and Norris just behind them.

That’s just plain weird. The surface was slippery (due to resurfacing just two weeks ago, with Pirelli not being told) and there was much spinning. Apparently the Mercedes lack of pace is genuine, but I’d still be surprised if they don’t make up a lot of ground. Great opportunity for Red Bull and Ferrari, and AlphaTauri are looking very well-placed too.

Third practice was a realm of inters and wets. Not sure how qualifying will be weather-wise. Verstappen was fastest, nearly a second ahead of Leclerc. Albon was third, a second and a half behind his team mate but nearly four full seconds ahead of Ocon. Norris, Vettel, Perez, Bottas, Magnussen, and Stroll followed, the Canadian over seven seconds off Verstappen’s pace. Hamilton did not set a time.

After this, Verstappen’s odds tumbled from around 5 to just 2.7 for the win and 2.37 to top qualifying. Leclerc has been looking good, and has odds of 13. Albon’s 15, and Gasly 51. The weather and track make things unpredictable but it’s probable qualifying may be delayed if it’s still so wet, which reduces the variability. Bottas is out to 6. If Mercedes have fixed their woes that’s immense value. If they haven’t and it’s ultra-slippery the long shots could come in.

I’m torn between sitting this out and splitting one stake, each way, between Albon, Gasly, and Leclerc to top qualifying.

Decided to sit it out. Verstappen, earlier, was great value at around 5 for pole/winner, but his odds now are too short given Mercedes history of performance, and potential for spinning. The long shots are tempting but I think they’ll be done in by the FIA holding off if it’s wet off enough for them to be able to take the fight to Mercedes, and in drier conditions I expect the Silver Arrows to at least be right behind Verstappen and maybe Leclerc, if not ahead.

Incidentally, it seems qualifying is from midday, which is a little earlier than I expected. (Think the race is 12.10pm, UK time).

Morris Dancer