Bahrain: pre-race 2020

There were no major upsets in qualifying but one or two cars ended up outside of expected positions, which may offer some intrigue for the race tomorrow.

Q1 was eminently predictable with both Haas, both Alfa Romeos, and Latifi all failing to progress.

Q2 had an early surprise. Before anyone could put in a lap time, but after almost everyone had taken much life out of their medium tyres (AlphaTauri alone were on the red soft tyres), Sainz’s rear wheel went on strike and he found himself spun around and his car unable to move. Cue the red flag, just for a little while. This put the Spaniard down to 15^th with lower possible if he takes a penalty. Also eliminated were both Ferraris, Vettel ahead of Leclerc (miraculous how the German has suddenly become competitive when Binotto isn’t attending races…), the oddly slow Stroll, and Russell.

In the first runs of Q3 Verstappen split the Mercedes, Hamilton leading, but this did not last. The Briton duly took his 432^nd career pole, with Bottas confirming that the Mercedes is a good car by achieving 2^nd, a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Albon joins his team mate on the second row, but is still over half a second slower.

Perez was best of the rest, a tenth ahead of Ricciardo, who was two-thousandths faster than Ocon. Gasly, Norris, and Kvyat finished off the top 10.

It’s possible some drivers may go for a single stop. The soft is thought to be rubbish for life and the medium pretty competitive on pace, so this may be advantageous for the likes of Perez and Leclerc, who has done well this season on this sort of thing.

Sad news. As of this morning there’s only a 4% chance of rain. I don’t believe there are any penalties… how old-fashioned. Race start time is 2.10pm (UK).

Early betting thoughts:
Vettel/Leclerc top 6
Ferrari double points finish
Sainz points
Stroll points

Leclerc is 4 to be top 6, Vettel is 9.5. Got to say, Vettel is a lot more tempting at those odds. Starts 11^th (one place ahead of Leclerc) and has free choice of tyres. If the top chaps all fall over one another doing the same thing (Mercs and Verstappen will be over the hills and far away, of course) that opens up a window of possibility. Leclerc, even last week when Vettel had a good race weekend, was faster in the race but the disparity in odds is excessive.

And Ferrari are 3.5 for a double points finish. That’s something I’m backing. An average of two gained places, with better tyres than those immediately ahead of them and good strategic scope for taking the best course.

Sainz is only 1.73 for points, and starts 15^th. There’s a reasonable chance he’ll achieve that but odds so short aren’t tempting, especially if gremlins return. Stroll at 1.83 for points is more appealing, as he starts 13^th and has a faster car (seems a comms error of some sort led to his unexpectedly slow pace in Q2, having been second fastest in Q1).

Oddly, there’s a lot to like from early thoughts. Nevertheless, I browsed the market to see if anything else caught my eye. The market does think there’s unlikely to be many retirements, though nothing really got my attention otherwise. That does, if accurate, obviously have implications for my initial betting thoughts as all involve chaps outside the top 10 doing well.

I like Ferrari to double score at 3.5. They were very close in Q2 and the loss of being 11^th and 12^th on the grid may well be outweighed by free tyre choice. Vettel for top 6 at 9.5 is tempting, but I think might be a bit too far. Hmm. Stroll at 1.83 for points is well worth considering, although his recent scoring record hasn’t been fantastic.

In the end I decided to just back the Ferrari double score bet at 3.5 (3.6 with boost).

The podium feels settled already, but the midfield is very competitive and it’ll be interesting to see how the strategies play out.

Morris Dancer